The World This Week | West Asia War completes one month, Houthi rebels to enter conflict and India braces for energy price fallout

Over the fourth week, the US has maintained its attacks on Iranian ballistic missiles and their supply chains. Israel, too, has continued with its ‘decapitation’ strikes on the Islamic Republic’s leaders in a bid to create the conditions for Iranians to overthrow the regime.

On the other hand, despite US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats, Iran has continued to hold a fifth of global energy supplies hostage with its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – the maritime chokepoint between the Gulf of Persia and the Gulf of Oman – while allowing vessels of “friendly nations” to pass through. This includes India, China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iraq.

The global energy crunch has compounded as a result of Iran’s strategy to ‘punish’ the US and its Gulf allies, with International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol saying on Monday that the disruption is worse than both of the 1970s oil crises and the Ukraine war combined.

Total fatalities: The war has claimed over 3,000 lives since it began on February 28.

• US-Israeli strikes have killed around 1,500 people in Iran, according to the country’s ambassador to the UN.
• On the other hand, ⁠Israeli strikes have killed 1,116 people in Lebanon since March 2, after Hezbollah (the Shia militant proxy group aligned with Tehran) started firing rockets at Israel for the killing of their ideological chief, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• At least 13 US service members have been killed across the Gulf, and 19 Israelis have died.
• Dozens more have been killed across the region as a result of Iranian drone and missile strikes.

‘Winding down’ to a ‘48-hour’ ultimatum

The week began with a whirlwind of developments, as Donald Trump announced plans to de-escalate and simultaneously waived sanctions on Iranian oil – developments that were soon followed by a major escalation and then another cooldown, all within a 24-hour time frame.

On Saturday (March 21), Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” the US operations because Washington was “getting very close” to meeting its military objectives.

On the same day, the US and Israel hit Natanz (a key Iranian nuclear facility) for the second time in the war. Iran retaliated with a missile barrage targeting two southern Israeli towns close to a nuclear facility, injuring approximately 180 people.

On Sunday, Trump went back online and issued a 48-hour ultimatum to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless Tehran unblocks the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not budge; instead, it vowed to attack the infrastructure of its enemies.

On Monday, hours before the deadline was set to expire, Trump postponed the military strikes for another five days, claiming that negotiations with Tehran were underway.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the most outspoken critics of Washington, denied any talks, saying that “fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”

On Thursday, Trump pushed the deadline back by another 10 days to April 6, claiming that he did it as per the Iranian government’s request.

Trump’s 15-point peace proposal and Iran’s conditions

Iran has maintained that no direct negotiations have taken place, but has acknowledged communication with Washington via three intermediaries – Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan.

The Associated Press reported that Iran received a 15-point plan for peace via Pakistan. Although the exact contents of the document are not known, the New York Times, citing officials, reported that it addressed Iran’s ballistic missile, nuclear programs, and maritime routes.

Iran rejected the proposal and set five conditions to end the war. Some of its demands include reparations, “a complete halt to aggression and assassinations,” and recognition of Tehran’s “exercise of sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan eager to mediate

Islamabad has been seeking to play the role of mediator in the ongoing conflict and has offered to host talks on Pakistani soil.

PM Shehbaz Sharif posted that Pakistan was “ready and honoured” to moderate “meaningful and conclusive talks” between the United States and Iran. And Donald Trump shared the post on his X account.

Tehran’s selective approach

Tehran has been selectively allowing vessels to pass through Hormuz. Iran’s representative to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said that the Strait of Hormuz “is open to everyone except enemies”, CNN reported, citing local media.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran is allowing vessels of “friendly nations” to pass through the Strait. Earlier this week, Iran permitted Japanese and South Korean ships to transit the Strait.

Amid Washington’s strained relations with European Nato allies owing to the conflict, such measures by Iran could put the US in a more difficult diplomatic spot as it seeks to rally support for its military campaign against Tehran.

‘Conflict to end in the next couple of weeks,’ says US Secy

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US expects to finish its operations “in the next couple of weeks,” adding that its objectives were being achieved and were ahead of schedule.

At the beginning of the conflict, Donald Trump said that the campaign could last “four to five weeks”, while downplaying Iran’s ability to strike back and drag the conflict on.

Rubio was in France, attending a meeting of foreign ministers from the G7 – the group of major Western economies – where the impact of the war and closure of the Hormuz were discussed.

II. Iran threatens to disrupt trade in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait

Following recurring reports of US plans to take over Kharg Island, Iran on Thursday threatened to disrupt trade in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait – the strategically vital waterway that connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.

• Passage through this Strait cuts the maritime travel distance between Asia and Europe by approximately 8,900 kilometres, reducing trip duration by about 10-14 days and fuel costs.
• Around 32km at its narrowest point, about 12 per cent of global trade passes through this channel.

The Strait is in proximity to territories occupied by the Houthis, a Shia militant group in Yemen that owes allegiance to the clerical establishment in Iran.

Past disruptions at Bab al-Mandeb

During the Israel-Hamas War, which broke out in October 2023, the Houthis joined the fight by launching drones and missiles at Israel and attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea to support Palestinians.

The insurance cost of shipping goods went up by approximately 1 per cent during that period.

III. Are Israel’s regime change plans falling apart?

Israel has been conducting ‘decapitation’ strikes on the Islamic Republic’s leaders in a bid to embolden Iranians to overthrow the regime. So far, the plan has not yielded its dividends.  

This may be because the bulk of protesters were killed and the political will was crushed in January, when Tehran launched a brutal crackdown on the anti-regime uprising.  

Even then, a more plausible argument would be the scale required to meet this objective, experts pointed out to The New York Times.

Israel used this strategy during its war with Hamas and Hezbollah, which significantly hindered the groups’ ability to fight back – ultimately, playing a key role in bringing them to the negotiation table.

• Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in 2024 in Iran, and his successor, Yahya Sinwar, was killed soon after.

• Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Hezbollah (a Shia militant group based in Lebanon), was killed in September 2024, and his apparent successor was killed barely a week later.

Israel’s fight with Hezbollah reignited after Tel Aviv killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Hamas (a Sunni group), however, has decided to move forward with Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, even urging Iran to stop its assault on Gulf-Arab countries aligned with Washington.

Replicating the strategy

Israel has replicated the strategy in its war with Iran, opening with the targeted killing of Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior political and military leaders.

However, achieving the same level of success against Tehran would be a drastically different task. This is not a militant group or any other non-state actor, but an establishment dominated by hardliners that has crystallised for nearly five decades.

Both Khamenei and Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto wartime leader who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last week, have been replaced since their death. On Wednesday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former IRGC commander, was appointed to take over Larijani’s role.

Hence, Tel Aviv has just begun scratching the surface of Tehran’s leadership. ‘Decapitation’ strikes alone are unlikely to lead to regime change or force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions — especially as wartime nationalism among the Iranian public has surged, bolstering support for the regime.

IV. India takes measures to offset supply shocks

As the conflict in West Asia coincided with the Budget Session in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a speech in Parliament, highlighting the severity of the supply chain disruptions and the measures the Centre has taken to tackle the crisis.

• Prioritisation of domestic LPG production: India imports approximately 60 per cent of its LPG, with 90 per cent of it coming through the Strait of Hormuz. The government, via the Essential Commodities Act, is boosting domestic LPG output by routing precursors to refineries in order to ensure supply stability amid disruptions.
• Diversification of energy import sources: PM Modi told Parliament that over the last decade, India has expanded its import base from 27 to 41 countries to reduce overdependence on West Asia.
• Expansion of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR): PM Modi said that India has petroleum reserves of about 5.3 million metric tonnes (MMT) and aims to add 6.5 MMT to buffer against supply shocks.
• Strengthening coal-based power generation: The government has focused on ramping up coal production and is ensuring that all power plants currently have adequate coal reserves to meet summer demand.
• Expansion of renewable energy capacity: Current renewable energy capacity is approximately 140 GW, and over 40 lakh households have rooftop solar panels under government schemes.
• Reducing agricultural sector’s dependence on fossil fuels: Farmers supported under schemes like PM KUSUM to reduce dependence on diesel for irrigation and energy needs.
• Boost to domestic fertiliser (urea) production: Six functional urea manufacturing units set up. Gulf countries accounted for approximately 75 per cent of urea imports (2024-25).
• Monitoring black-marketing and supply distortions: The Centre and states have directed authorities to prevent hoarding and unfair use of essential commodities during the crisis.

Excise duty on petrol, diesel slashed by Rs 10

The Centre has also slashed the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each on Friday (March 27). The move is aimed at keeping the retail prices of the two fuels stable by offsetting the losses incurred by oil marketing companies (OMCs).

• The SAED on petrol now stands at Rs 3 per litre, down from Rs 13 per litre.
• And nil on diesel, which was initially Rs 10 per litre.

Shock absorption: Brent crude futures were $110.86 a barrel on Friday, compared to $73 a barrel before the West Asia conflict began on February 28. West Texas Intermediate futures were up to $97.01 from $67 per barrel.

OMCs were absorbing the shock by retaining retail prices. They were incurring losses of Rs 24 per litre on petrol sales and Rs 30 per litre on diesel sales due to the international price surge.

• The excise duty reduction is expected to absorb around 30-40 per cent of the annualised losses of OMCs.
• According to Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist, Emkay Global, the annualised fiscal hit to the government due to this burden sharing would be around Rs 1.55 lakh crore.

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