The World This Week | Two ceasefire extensions in West Asia and a doorway to cold peace

While peace talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 failed to produce a breakthrough, the extension of the albeit fragile truce indicates Washington’s willingness to de-escalate. A US delegation of envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law), will head to Pakistan’s capital city.

On the other hand, a delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Pakistan on Friday. But the Iranian side made it clear that they will not communicate with the US team directly.

The US President can continue the war until May 1. He will need congressional approval again, under the War Powers Act, to keep military operations going.

Likely reasons behind the extension

The conflict has strained the US’s relations with traditional allies (a topic we have covered in previous articles from this series) and dealt a major blow to the global economy as Tehran maintains its grip on the Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which a fifth of global energy supplies passed during peacetime.

Brent crude has remained over $100 a barrel for the better part of the war. While political pressure builds at home over gas prices and the military campaign itself (going against Trump’s non-interventionist pitch during his election campaign), MAGA has more things to worry about.

A recent New York Times report said that the US is running out of missiles. It stated that the US military has used up half of its munitions inventory at a pace far beyond its production capability.

The war has also cost the Pentagon between $28 billion and $35 billion – under $1 billion a day, NYT reported, citing two independent groups. In the first two days alone, the military used $5.6 billion of munitions.

Amid the shortages, the US has been diverting vast amounts of military resources from other key theatres, including Eastern Europe and East Asia. The facts gain further relevance owing to China’s growing assertiveness on its reunification with Taiwan.

The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier, the aircraft carrier of the US Navy, had already been moved from the South China Sea before the war began. With resources stretched, Washington faces difficulties in posturing in this theatre. The US has also lost over a dozen drones and aircraft in the current conflict, including an E-3 Sentry AWACS.

Why did the US blockade the Strait of Hormuz?

Following the negotiations in Islamabad, Trump said that while most points had been agreed upon, the nuclear issue had not. The US has called for the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, while Tehran is keen on retaining its enrichment capability.

Owing to the deadlock, the US initiated a complete blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 in response to Iran’s effective closure of the Hormuz. The move is aimed at forcing Iran back to the negotiating table, as crude exports from the Strait are the lifeline of its cash-strapped economy.

At the time of announcing the blockade, Trump also said that the US Navy would “interdict every vessel” going past Iran’s Larak Island and paying “an illegal toll” ($2 million for each vessel) to Tehran to avoid Iranian mines in the Strait. He said that the US Navy will clear mines in the waterway to restore traffic along the original route.

This Thursday, the US President said he has ordered the military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines to choke traffic through the Strait.

Iran’s strategy of allowing vessels to pay tolls and pass through its territorial waters had opened a window for Iran to avoid a collective global backlash and widen the split between the US and its Nato allies over the war.

• Ships belonging to US allies — France, Japan, and South Korea — were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz alongside Indian, Chinese, Russian, Pakistani and Iraqi vessels.

By extending the ceasefire and mirroring Iran’s blockade, Washington has avoided further depletion of existing weapons stockpiles. At this point, it is effectively a war of attrition – a test of whose political will breaks under the strain of depleting resources or mounting pressure.

A doorway to cold peace and the IRGC factor

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the delegation from Tehran during the first round of talks, dismissed Trump’s ceasefire extension as “meaningless.”

“The losing side cannot dictate terms. The continuation of the siege is no different from bombardment and must be met with a military response,” the top Iranian leader wrote on X.

While his anti-American rhetoric remains sharp, he was removed from the talks due to pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which accused him of attempting to expand discussions to include nuclear-related issues, Iran International reported.

The IRGC is Iran’s parallel military, which answers only to the Supreme Leader. Its broader hardline agenda is to preserve the 1979 revolution’s legacy (famously anti-American).

Much to Washington’s dismay, the IRGC’s influence has grown in Iran’s state apparatus while Israel has been skimming layers of the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei (who is yet to be seen publicly since assuming the role), never held public office but succeeded his father, Ali Khamenei, in a system that looks down upon dynastic succession. He was known for his links with the Guard Corps. His appointment may mean he could remain beholden to the paramilitary.

Iran’s de facto wartime leader and security chief, Ali Larijani, who was killed in an Israeli strike last month, was an IRGC commander, and so is his successor, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. Ghalibaf himself is a former IRGC commander.

With Washington’s new strategy, the path ahead will be a test for the IRGC’s ideological rigidity.

That being said, Donald Trump’s unpredictability remains a key variable. Given that the US bombed Iran right after the last two series of nuclear talks failed (Operation Midnight Hammer in June, 2025 and the current Operation Epic Fury), there is little room left for the Iranians to trust Washington.

II. Israel and Lebanon extend ceasefire

On Thursday, Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended by three weeks after fresh talks between the countries’ envoys in Washington.

Trump said both Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would visit the White House “in the coming weeks”.

The countries announced a cessation of hostilities after global backlash in response to the Israeli campaign against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Ending the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, was among the terms in Iran’s 10-point proposal.

The country was dragged into the wider conflict in West Asia after the Shia militant group broke its ceasefire with Tel Aviv over the US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

At least 2,294 people have been killed in Lebanon since the campaign began on March 2, according to the country’s health ministry. UN estimates around a million people have been displaced, mostly in the country’s southern part, where Israel has established a buffer zone aimed at preventing rocket attacks from the Iranian proxy.

The zone extends till the “yellow demarcation line”, which partly runs along the Litani River. Its area includes Beit Lif – a Hezbollah stronghold.

Hezbollah attacks have killed two civilians in Israel since then, while 15 Israeli soldiers have been killed in combat in Lebanon, the BBC reported, quoting Israeli authorities.

The US, Israel, and many Lebanese leaders have demanded the group’s disarmament. However, Lebanese President Aoun has argued that disarmament cannot be delivered by force.

Like the IRGC, Hezbollah maintains a political presence in Lebanon and its institutions. The group has members in the country’s parliament. After the group launched an assault on Israel in March, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam banned its military activities.

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