Trump’s comeback to Assad’s fall and Gaza War: 2024 events that dominated headlines

Trump’s return to the White House

Following a year-long election process, Americans went to the polls on “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November” (as has been the tradition) to cast their ballots for the next President. The eventual victory of Trump as the 47th President of the US became a common refrain across national and international media. 

Whether the policies of the incoming US president – to be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 – would align with India’s aspirations on the world stage kept the Indian diplomatic circles engaged, specifically in view of Trump’s stance on immigration, trade, tariffs and his policies towards the Indo-Pacific. 

Earlier this month, Trump threatened the BRICS nations with “100 per cent tariffs” if it attempted to replace the US dollar in international trade. As of now, Trump’s initial tariff plans exclude India and intends to impose substantial tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. The move could cause tensions between the two powerful economies – the US and China – and potentially disrupt global trade. 

It also echoes the China challenge – where the interests of the US and India converge –  with the previous Trump administration (2017-2021) framing Beijing as a “strategic threat” in its national security strategy. In that context, the incoming Trump administration’s approach towards the Indo-Pacific might bring renewed focus on India’s concerns over China’s assertiveness in the region.

The need for deeper US-India collaboration on both strategic and economic fronts in the region cannot be ruled out. In fact, the strategic convergence between India and the US in the region was a primary driver contributing to the shift from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration adopted a National Security Strategy for the Indo-Pacific region in 2017 and renamed the US Pacific Command as the US Indo-Pacific Command in 2018, formalising and institutionalising the concept of the Indo-Pacific. 

Indo-Pacific: The arena of strategic concerns 

This policy shift was seen as a vital step to address the aggression of China, increasing threats to critical sea lanes of communication, and non-traditional security challenges, such as climate change, maritime piracy, illegal fishing, natural disasters, and cybersecurity threats. It was also important for the inclusion of India – a growing major power – into the policy frameworks of key global actors, particularly the US. 

Notably, under the previous Trump administration, the Foreign Ministers of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) countries—Australia, India, Japan and the US — held talks for the first time, paving the way for the group to emerge as a vital platform for governance in key domains of the Indo-Pacific.

President Joe Biden built on the momentum by elevating the Quad to the leaders’ level. During the meeting in September 2024, Biden hosted Quad leaders in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware. The Biden administration released the Indo-Pacific Strategy in February 2022, emphasising a free and open Indo-Pacific, sovereign decision-making by countries, adherence to international law, and lawful governance of shared domains like seas and skies – which is in sync with India’s stance in the region.

In fact, through its “Act East” policy, India has emerged as a natural partner in this vision, aiming to enhance collaboration with Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific, while mitigating China’s growing influence. Now all eyes are on the expected nuanced shifts in US Indo-Pacific policy under the incoming Trump administration, while Washington’s economic competition with China—evident in proposed tariff plans—will remain central, shaping broader security and strategic approaches in the region.

A world at war: Ukraine-Russia and Hamas-Israel wars

Amidst all this, major conflicts across the globe, including the Ukraine-Russia and Hamas-Israel wars, continue to remain sticking points for the global powers. As the Ukraine-Russia war approached its third year in 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made historic visits to Russia in July and Ukraine in August this year, engaging in discussions with President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky, respectively. 

He clarified that India is “not neutral” but “in favour of peace” in this bilateral conflict, and urged that both parties should come to the table without wasting time. However, the prolonged war coupled with the bad economy of Russia prompted Trump to call Moscow a “weakened state”, which couldn’t come to the rescue of its long-term ally in West Asia – Bashar al-Assad of Syria. However, the prolonged war coupled with its economy in bad shape

More importantly, the fall of the 24-year-old Assad regime in Syria was seen as a strategic setback for Iran, particularly to its Axis of Resistance – an alliance of armed entities and government actors in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen along with Palestinian groups.  

The Axis has been a major force for Iran to exert regional influence and oppose the US and Israel. Given the volatile situation in the region, it won’t be feasible to forecast the outcome of Assad’s fall. Yet, the possibility that powers like Turkey, Iran and Gulf Cooperation Council states along with Israel would recalibrate their strategies for regional aspirations is on the horizon. 

Meanwhile, talks to broker a ceasefire in Gaza remain precarious, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of hindering the progress. The war began after Israel retaliated against Hamas’ October 2023 attack on southern Israel and soon escalated to even include direct attacks between Israel and Iran. The situation does not bode well for countries like India with a huge stake in the stability of the region.

The Gaza war, Assad’s fall, West Asian geopolitics and implications for India

The expansion of the Gaza War to Lebanon and the Gulf, driven by the involvement of Hezbollah, Ansar Allah (the Yemeni militant group commonly known as Houthis), Iraqi militias, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps overshadowed the reconciliatory initiatives (such as the Abraham Accords). It was argued that the reconciliatory efforts were primarily motivated by a desire to focus on economic growth and development, but the Gaza war shifted this focus down the list of priorities. 

The recent overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria further complicated the situation, with considerable implications for India. In addition to being home to over nine million Indian expatriates (a major source of remittances), West Asia is a vital source of energy imports, trade, investments and defence for India. 

For instance, the GCC nations alone account for over $150 billion in bilateral trade annually and are a critical source of energy imports. In 2023, India received US$120 billion in remittances from across the globe, and nearly 30 per cent of the remittance originated in the Gulf region. Moreover, despite diversification efforts, India’s reliance on the region for hydrocarbons remains as high as 55-60 per cent as of 2023-24.

Therefore, prolonged instability and widening conflict will pose a threat to the security and well-being of Indians, cause a considerable loss in remittances, and affect India’s economy. The loss of trade and commerce, and the impact on energy imports will be other serious concerns for India. In addition, India’s effort to promote regional connectivity, trade and commerce through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, the International North-South Transport Corridor, and the Chabahar port pivots on the restoration of stability in the region. 

India has expressed its concerns at the deteriorating security situation in the region, and has emphasised a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. India’s position on the Gaza War is in tune with its historical stand for a two-state solution achieved through diplomatic negotiations within the purviews of the resolutions passed in the United Nations. However, a ceasefire in the Gaza War seems elusive, but it does raise a pertinent question – Will environmental protections be prioritised over traditional military goals?

Climate change, women and gender equality

It won’t be an exaggeration to say that issues like climate change, women and gender equality remained overshadowed by the issues of high politics, such as conflicts, war, and diplomacy. The recently concluded COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, ended in disappointment for the developing countries. The main agreement negotiated at the conference promised to mobilise $300 billion annually in climate finance for the developing countries – significantly lower than the $1.3 trillion a year they had been demanding in line with their requirements.

More importantly, COP29 faced criticism for the underrepresentation of women and the absence of gender-responsive financing goals. While $300 million was pledged, no specific targets or measurable allocations for gender-responsive policies were set. Similarly, the failure to adopt the Just Transition Work Program at COP29 highlighted a critical gap in addressing the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women, exacerbated by climate change. 

The setback draws our attention to the strong correlation between women’s empowerment and effective climate action. Addressing climate change and promoting gender equality are pivotal steps toward building a more inclusive and equitable world order. In that context, India’s push for reforms in global institutions such as the United Nations Security Council, multilateral development banks, and the World Trade Organisation continues to be a critical issue in promoting fairness and equality in global governance and building an inclusive world order.  

Hence, as 2024 draws to a close, the global community struggles to navigate the ripple effects of global conflicts and wars, geopolitical shifts, and climate change while striving to achieve a just world order. The year 2025 will mark 30 years of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, which recognised women’s rights as human rights and envisioned a world in which women have the same rights and opportunities as men. 

(The author has a PhD in International Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University.)

Share your thoughts and ideas on UPSC Special articles with ashiya.parveen@indianexpress.com.

Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter and stay updated with the news cues from the past week.

Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.