The World This Week | Trump’s deadline to Iran, India-US ink Pax Silica declaration, and Rubio ‘assures’ Europe

Yet again, Donald Trump and Team MAGA’s foreign policy make their appearance in this series – this time with tempered aggression towards Europe at the Munich Security Conference, and at the inaugural session of the US President’s very own invention, the ‘Board of Peace’.

Meanwhile, India inked a new tech-oriented strategic partnership agreement with Washington and hosted a new AI Summit in New Delhi.

Board of Peace and Gaza’s reconstruction plan

The Board of Peace, a venture spearheaded by Donald Trump and inscribed in his 20-point peace plan for the Israel-Hamas war, held its inaugural meeting on Thursday in Washington DC. Representatives from more than 40 countries were reportedly present at the event where Trump gave his opening address.

The plan for Gaza

The US President announced that the board members pledged $7 billion for Gaza’s reconstruction — a far cry from the $53 billion recovery cost estimated by the World Bank. Trump also announced a $10 billion commitment from the United States.

At least five countries, including Indonesia, Kosovo, and Albania, have pledged to send several thousand troops as an International Stabilization Force to the Palestinian enclave, which has been battered by the two-year-long war.

The ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Hamas that came into effect last month remains fragile, as instances of Israeli bombardment have taken place since.

‘Bored of peace’

Trump issued a fresh threat aimed at Iran, urging it to make a “meaningful” deal or “bad things will happen”. “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days,” he remarked at the Board of Peace meeting.

Later, aboard Air Force One, he extended the deadline to “10-15 days, pretty much maximum.”

In the last few weeks, the Middle East has witnessed an unprecedented level of US military buildup. Washington has moved dozens of aircraft and naval assets to the Middle East. These include the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, an array of fighter jets including F-35s, refueling tankers, electronic warfare aircraft, and EWACs.

According to CNN, the Ford Carrier Strike Group, the most advanced aircraft carrier group, is also headed to the region.

The Ford Carrier Group includes the USS Gerald R Ford, the US’s largest aircraft carrier; three destroyers (USS Bainbridge, USS Mahan, and USS Winston S Churchill); F/A-18E Super Hornet (Multirole fighter); EA-18G Growler (electronic warfare aircraft). It also features MH-60 Sea Hawk navy helicopters, an EWAC, and a cargo aircraft.

The Ford Carrier Strike Group, the most advanced aircraft carrier group, is reportedly headed towards the Middle East. (Credit: usff.navy.mil)

Last month, Iran witnessed the largest protest against the Islamic regime since its establishment in 1979, fuelled by an ongoing sanction-induced economic crisis and discontent over inflation.

Having crushed the uprising and killed at least 6,000 protestors last month, the Islamic Republic’s fate now hinges on its willingness to make a compromise on its nuclear enrichment levels. Tehran has warned that any American strike could trigger an unconventional Iranian response.

A familiar tone: Last year, amid negotiations with Tehran, the Trump administration unilaterally bombed three nuclear sites, incapacitating its enrichment program, which had been a cause of concern for Israel.

The strikes took place on June 22, barely three days into Trump’s self-imposed “two-week” deadline. This time, US assets have moved in before his warning. Raising the question: Is the President’s patience wearing thin, or has he already made up his mind?

Weighing the consequences: One thing is certain: whether an all-out war or a precise ‘decapitation’ strike on the regime’s power centres, given the number of potential stakeholders, peace in the region is far-fetched.

An attack would also mean risking regional stability. Iraq has kept groups like ISIS at bay with the help of Iran-backed Shia militias.

Iran has held military exercises close to the Strait of Hormuz – a major maritime choke point with a fifth of the world’s energy supplies passing through it. A conflict could cause global oil and gas prices to skyrocket.

Proxies aligned with the Islamic Republic – like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, collectively referred to as the ‘axis of resistance’ – could also join the war, although their capabilities have been significantly degraded in their conflict with Israel.

On the other hand, Saudi officials have said that they will acquire nukes if Iran does.

In between the lines: A quiet stir with allies

So far, 27 countries have accepted Trump’s invitation to join the Board of Peace. At least 14, including the US’s traditional allies, did not join the Board. France and Sweden declined to join the body, flagging concerns over its charter.

The UK and Ukraine also rejected Trump’s offer, citing the invitation sent to Russia. Kyiv’s Foreign Affairs Committee Chair called the idea “absurd” while labelling Russia and its ally Belarus the “biggest violator of peace and international law.”

While Belarus accepted the invitation, Russia is still deliberating.

On the other hand, some of the countries that rejected the offer, including founding Nato ally Norway, sent their envoys to the meeting.

Norway’s foreign ministry said it plans to host the next meeting of the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHCL) for Palestinian aid and has been “in contact with the US about how we can also talk about the peace plan for Gaza there.” However, Oslo insisted that it “remains firm” about not joining the Board.

India has not joined the Board but has sent Chargé d’affaires at the Indian Embassy in Washington DC Namgya Khampa as an observer.

Fears over United Nations Security Council

Critics have cast fears that the initiative – which would remain active even after the US President’s tenure – could undermine the United Nations Security Council. “They haven’t lived up to their potential,” Trump said about the UN aboard Air Force One earlier, but assured that the two bodies would be “working in conjunction.”

But during Thursday’s meeting, he said the Board would “almost be looking over the United Nations and making sure it runs properly.”

No peace in sight

While Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ strategy, paired with his maximalist impulsiveness, risks a full-blown war in the Middle East, respite on the Ukrainian front seems distant once again.

With a week to go before the war enters its fifth year, the third round of trilateral meetings concluded on Wednesday without producing a breakthrough. Some progress was made on “military issues,” the BBC reported, quoting officials.

Trilateral talks between the United States, Ukraine and Russia on Russia-Ukraine war in Geneva, Switzerland. (AP Photo)

The second round of US-brokered trilateral talks concluded in Abu Dhabi, with both sides agreeing on a major prisoner exchange.

A deadlock over Donbas

Russia has been pressing Kyiv to withdraw from the eastern Ukrainian territory of Donbas, where fighting remains intense — a condition Kyiv says it will never accept.

The Donbas refers collectively to Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts — once considered the country’s industrial heartland.

The region accounts for over 50 per cent of the country’s coal reserves, 20 per cent of its gas fields, hosts fertile farmland, water resources, and vast critical mineral deposits, essential to renewable energy technologies, according to the Centre for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), a think-tank that partners with the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Russia currently controls nearly all of Luhansk and around 70 per cent of the Donetsk oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank.

Moscow’s symbolic milestone

According to Moscow’s “Novorossiya” narrative, large portions of southeastern Ukraine are considered historically Russian lands, thereby justifying their occupation.

The Kremlin’s commitment is ossified by the fact that the majority of the population in Donbas are Russian speakers.

Language has guided the domestic politics in Ukraine for a long time. In 1989, after gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Ukrainian was designated as the “state” language.

In 2012, Russian was classified as a “regional” language, but the law was repealed in February 2014, a day after Viktor Yanukovych was removed as president, stirring sentiments in Donbas.

Soon after the annexation of Crimea, the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk witnessed a Russian-backed insurrection. Kyiv regained control over the city, but Moscow is still eyeing it.

Ukraine relinquishing control over Donetsk, including Sloviansk, would mean handing over several heavily fortified cities and a long-established defensive line in the region, leaving the country vulnerable.

And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself has drawn parallels with the 1938 Munich Agreement, when European countries let Hitler annex Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia.

Soldiers at a pickup before assignments on the frontline near Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine. (AP Photo)

Another point of contention is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest of its kind in Europe, which has been under Russian control since March 2022. Ukraine wants Moscow to return it.

In October 2025, two months after hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin for a summit in Alaska, US President Donald Trump said that Ukraine’s Donbas region should be “cut up,” leaving much of it under Moscow’s control, as a way to end the war.

In December, Zelenskyy suggested holding a referendum, saying that any compromises on territory should be decided by the Ukrainian people.

Earlier, The New York Times reported that a growing number of Ukrainians preferred handing over part of the Donbas still controlled by Kyiv to Russia if it were to end the war.

Rubio’s reassuring

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s address at the annual Munich Security Conference last Saturday provided relief to Washington’s European allies, who were at their wits’ end barely a month ago because of Trump’s repeated threats to take over Greenland.

Rubio offered a reassuring message to the leaders at the summit that Europe and America “belong together”, dousing concerns about a rupture in Nato, and added that the White House wants “Europe to be strong” – a stark contrast to Trump’s tone that cast a shadow over transatlantic ties.

He reminded the attendees, many of whom are Washington’s Nato allies, that “our destiny is and always will be intertwined with yours”, citing the two world wars of the 20th century, while pushing for changes in the relationship and the international institutions that have defined the post-World War II world order.

However, Rubio’s speech took a turn again, as he stood firmly by his President, critiquing Europe’s stance on climate change, migration, and open borders. The ‘parental’ tone and criticism of liberal values – which Rubio alleged are contributing to Europe’s civilisational decline – were met with sharp responses.

Pax Silica and AI Impact Summit

New Delhi and Washington signed the Pax Silica declaration Friday, a US-led initiative aimed at bringing “friendly and trusted” countries together to build AI infrastructure and secure tech supply chains.

The strategic initiative was launched on December 12, 2025, to “reduce coercive dependencies” and build a “secure, prosperous, and innovation-driven silicon supply chain.” It is seen as a counter to China’s dominance in AI and its monopoly in semiconductor manufacturing and rare earths supplies.

Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw and Director of the White House Office of S&T Policy Michael Kratsios witness the signing of the Pax Silica Declaration. (ANI Photo)

Earlier this month, the US dropped its tariffs on Indian products from 50 per cent to 18 per cent, while New Delhi and Washington were expected to sign an interim trade deal next month.

With the Supreme Court of the United States Friday striking down Trump’s global tariffs — and curbing his ability to impose duties citing emergency powers — the equation in the upcoming trade negotiations could change.

The Pax Silica initiative could be considered a narrower iteration of the China Plus One programme – a global phenomenon of onshoring and friendshoring supply chain lines since 2013 to reduce dependency on Beijing.

The signing comes in the backdrop of India hosting its first AI Impact Summit, drawing participation from more than 100 countries, including 15 to 20 heads of government, more than 50 ministers, and over 40 global and Indian CEOs.

The gathering hosted world leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish President Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón. Key industry voices included OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, and RIL Chairman Mukesh Ambani.

A large crowd gathers to attend the first India AI Impact Summit in New Delhi. (Express Photo/Tashi Tobgyal)

In the meantime, New Delhi has been introducing reforms to attract investment in data centres, a key component in the AI ecosystem. In the Union Budget, the Centre introduced a tax holiday until 2047 for foreign companies establishing data centres in India.

Investments worth nearly $70 billion are already in the pipeline for India’s data centre sector, a PIB release earlier this week noted.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who was stripped of his titles over his links with now deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, was arrested on Friday.

The Thames Valley Police arrested Andrew as part of an investigation that stems from claims that, while serving as a UK trade envoy, he passed confidential government documents to the financier.

King Charles’ brother Andrew. (File Photo)

He was held for a few hours before being released. His brother King Charles III said “the law must take its course” following the development, adding that the police have his “full and wholehearted support and co-operation.”

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is also facing a separate allegation that a woman was sent to the UK by Epstein in 2010 for a sexual encounter.

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