Knowledge Nugget: What makes Exit Polls important for UPSC current affairs

Key takeaways:

1. The exit polls are surveys that are conducted by major media houses and independent agencies immediately after voting ends. These surveys show an early indication of voter sentiment and emerging trends. However, Exit polls are not always accurate and should not be considered as the final results. In recent years, many exit polls have been proven to be erratic.

2. Many agencies such as Axis My India, CVoter, IPSOS, Jan Ki Baat and Today’s Chanakya conduct exit poll surveys and release their predictions through television channels, official websites, and social media platforms.

3. As per the Election Commission of India (ECI) guidelines, exit polls cannot be released until the voting process is fully completed. This is to avoid influencing voters who are yet to vote.

4. It is important to understand that exit polls are different from opinion polls. Opinion polls are conducted before the election. There have been demands in the past for a ban of exit polls and opinion polls as they led to “undue influence” on the voters.

5. At two all-party meetings called by the Election Commission in 1997 and 2004, there was unanimous demand for a ban. The difference of opinion was only on whether the ban should apply from the announcement of the poll schedule or the date of notification. In 1998, the ECI issued guidelines that were challenged in the SC.

Women voters wait in a queue to cast their vote for the second phase of the Bihar assembly election, in West Champaran on Tuesday. (@CEOBiharX/ANI Photo)

6. A five-judge Constitution Bench asked the ECI how it would enforce these decisions in the absence of a law. Realising its weakness, the ECI withdrew the guidelines till a law was made. Unfortunately, this left the constitutionality of the issue undecided.

7. The matter resurfaced in 2008 when many political parties came to the ECI demanding a ban on opinion and exit polls. The ECI advised them that they need to raise it in Parliament, as it required legislative amendment. Parliament added Section 126A in the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, providing a detailed provision for the exit poll.

8. Section 126A of the RPA, 1951, prohibits the conduct of Exit polls and the dissemination of their results by means of print or electronic media between the hour fixed for commencement of poll in the first phase and half an hour after the time fixed for close of poll for the last phase in all the constituencies.

Election official display the CU (Control Unit) during a training session for the vote counting of the Bihar Assembly elections, in Patna on Monday. (ANI Photo)

9. For the opinion polls, Section 126(1)(b) of RPA, 1951 provides a prohibition on displaying any election matter, including results of any Opinion Poll or any other poll survey, in any electronic media during the period of 48 hours ending with the hour fixed for the conclusion of the poll in each of the phases of elections.

10. The violations of these provisions are punishable acts. Section 126A (3) provides that any person who contravenes the provisions of this section shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with a fine or with both.

BEYOND THE NUGGET: Why vote?

The Bihar Assembly election 2025 saw two major milestones:

✅ 66.91% voter turnout overall; Highest since 1st Bihar elections in 1951

✅ Bihar records the highest female voter turnout in its history

⇒ In democracies, voting is seen as a basic exercise that shows people’s faith in the political process. The right to vote, after all, has also been secured by various disadvantaged groups – colonised people, women, racial and ethnic minorities – after long struggles. Voting gives each person a say in deciding who will hold positions of power in their society and is a crucial part of exercising one’s citizenship.

⇒Having the right to vote also makes one feel part of a larger community where their voice matters. Emmeline Pankhurst, a British suffragette, argued before women had the right to vote: “Men make the moral code and they expect women to accept it. They have decided that it is entirely right and proper for men to fight for their liberties and their rights, but that it is not right and proper for women to fight for theirs”.

⇒In that sense, the representation voting plays a role in people feeling like stakeholders in a system.

Post Read Question

Consider the following statements about the exit polls:

1. Section 126A of the RPA, 1951, prohibits conduct of Exit poll for 12 hours after close of poll for the last phase of election.

2. Violation of Section 126A is punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.

Which of the following statements is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

(Sources: Bihar Election 2025 Exit Polls: Surveys predict clean sweep for NDA in Bihar, ceotripura.nic.in, Why opinion polls need regulation, Exit polls and why they are restricted by the panel: All your questions answered, This Quote Means: ‘We do not have government by the majority… but by the majority who participate’

Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.

🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for October 2025. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at manas.srivastava@indianexpress.com🚨