The world this week | India aims for mini trade deal with US; Trump threatens BRICS nations with additional tariffs; Gaza being turned into ‘graveyard’

Indian negotiators held nearly a week of trade talks in the US before returning on July 4. They are understood to have offered substantial market access to US products in most sectors, excluding sensitive areas such as dairy and agriculture. The US, in turn, is expected to offer lower tariffs on labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and footwear (where it has a competitive edge), and withhold future tariffs on India.

Nonetheless, the trade talks hit a roadblock with Washington insisting on opening up India’s agriculture sector. India has drawn “very big red lines” around this politically sensitive sector, especially amid concerns over the US’s demand to access the Indian market for genetically modified (GM) products.

The new deadline of August 1 offers some elbow room and Indian negotiators are likely to visit the US next week, hoping to finalise a mini-interim trade deal for certain goods, which would particularly include agriculture and automobiles.

However, concerns over industrial commodity tariffs – steel, aluminium and now copper – and pharmaceuticals persist in India. On Tuesday (July 8), Trump announced a 50 per cent tariff on copper, after implementing similar duties on steel and aluminium.

This is significant as the US is India’s third-largest copper export market (after Saudi Arabia and China), accounting for 17 per cent ($360 million) of its total export of copper and copper products globally worth $2 billion in 2024-25.

However, experts argue that given copper’s status as a critical mineral and its extensive use across infrastructure, energy and manufacturing, India’s domestic industry is likely to absorb any decline in US demand resulting from the proposed tariffs.

But a 200 per cent tariff on pharmaceutical exports could deal a blow to India’s generics industry, given that the US now accounts for 40 per cent of India’s total pharma exports. Although the tariffs on pharma products have been deferred by at least a year, it could not only have implications for the American healthcare system as a majority of drugs exported are low-cost, generic drugs, but also disrupt the global pharmaceutical supply chain.

Amid all this, US President Donald Trump has started announcing steep tariffs ranging from 25 per cent to 50 per cent on nearly 20 countries, including Brazil, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Africa. This is in addition to the 10 per cent baseline tariffs and other sectoral ones announced earlier. However, Trump left the door open for further negotiations with these countries, particularly with its close allies, i.e. Japan and South Korea, till August 1.

Trump’s letters have targeted six countries in the ASEAN bloc with 40 per cent tariffs, primarily because of growing transshipments from China. He has also threatened to impose additional tariffs on BRICS nations.

17th BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro

With the US President Trump claiming that BRICS is “anti-American” and threatening to impose additional tariffs on members of the forum, India found itself in a somewhat awkward situation as it seeks to finalise a trade deal with the US.

Although India has made it clear that de-dollarisation is not its economic, political, or strategic policy and transactions in domestic currencies are intended to de-risk Indian trade, Brazil’s President Lula da Silva apparently fuelled the “anti-America” rhetoric by saying that BRICS proves the world “doesn’t need an emperor”.

It prompted Trump to repeat the threat of an extra 10 per cent tariffs for BRICS countries, which collectively represent around 40 per cent of the global GDP and a quarter of global trade.

However, the absence of a “unified BRICS position” on the issue, alongside bilateral differences among member countries (for example, between India and China, and among the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran), warrant a closer enquiry into such rhetorics; particularly in the context of BRICS being seen as a challenger to the global financial order or as another platform for India to develop ties with countries in the Global South.

Nonetheless, the 17th BRICS Summit held in Rio de Janeiro (July 6-7) was attended by the newly inducted members (Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, Iran and Indonesia; Saudi Arabia has not joined so far). But Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping were absent. More importantly, the Rio declaration presented the basic consensus among BRICS members on a range of issues.

The joint statement condemned the strikes against Iran and used strong language against the attacks on Gaza. India was able to ensure a paragraph in the declaration condemning the Pahalgam terror attack “in the strongest terms”, and reaffirming the group’s commitment “to combating terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including the cross-border movement of terrorists, terrorism financing and safe havens.”

The paragraph on the Pahalgam attack was seen as a gain for New Delhi, especially with key Pakistani allies like China endorsing it. However, India also yielded on the group’s stance on Gaza and Iran, which is seen in the context of New Delhi’s more pronounced pro-Israel stance since October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, which was noted in the “Global South”.

The consensus among member countries, encapsulated in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recasting of the group’s acronym as “Building Resilience and Innovation for Cooperation and Sustainability”, is expected to be upheld as New Delhi takes the leadership of BRICS next year.

Following the BRICS Summit, PM Modi reached Brasilia where the two sides held bilateral level talks, and signed six agreements that included renewable energy, cooperation on combating terrorism, intellectual property, agriculture and protection of classified information. PM Modi was also conferred with the highest state honour of Brazil, the Grand Collar of the National Order of the Southern Cross.

Modi wrapped up his five-country tour with a stop in Namibia, where he was conferred with the Order of the Most Ancient Welwitschia Mirabilis, the nation’s highest civilian award. While in Namibia, he also highlighted India’s support to the country’s decolonisation, “not just in words, but in action”, and congratulated it for adopting India’s UPI digital payment system.

As part of India’s ongoing outreach to the Global South, PM Modi visited the African nations, Ghana and Namibia, the Caribbean nation Trinidad and Tobago, and Latin American countries Argentina and Brazil. However, these diplomatic efforts came amid heightened global tensions, particularly around the Russia-Ukraine War and Israel’s war in Gaza.

Russia accelerates attacks against Ukraine

The Russia-Ukraine war appears to be worsening further, with Moscow intensifying its attacks and Kyiv securing the supply of critical military weapons from the US. Meanwhile, efforts to end the over three-year-long war hang in the balance, while Pope Leo XIV has also offered to host peace talks.

Accelerating its attacks, Russia on Wednesday (July 9) launched a record 728 drones on Ukraine, followed by another bout of strikes the following day in which 18 missiles and around 400 drones primarily targeted the capital Kyiv, media reports said.

Russia’s intensified attacks, which have strained Ukraine’s air defence, came amid US President Trump pledging to resume the supply of defensive weapons, including Patriot air defence systems, to Ukraine via the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and aiming sharp criticism at Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin … He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless,” Reuters cited Trump as saying.

On Tuesday (July 8), Trump said he was considering supporting a Bill that would impose steep sanctions on Russia, including 500 per cent tariffs on nations that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and other exports. Notably, India and China are the top importers of Russian crude. In June, India’s Russian oil imports rose to an 11-month high, accounting for a massive 43.2 per cent of total oil imports. New Delhi had voiced concerns over the Bill and energy security.

The US move came as Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks caused record civilian casualties, with the United Nations (UN) saying June saw the highest monthly civilian casualties in Ukraine in three years, with 232 people killed and more than 1,300 injured. It prompted Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensyky to request Patriot systems from the US, alongside demanding sanctions against Russia. Patriot batteries detect and intercept oncoming missiles and are regarded as one of the world’s best air defence systems.

The escalation came after two rounds of direct peace talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which yielded no progress on stopping the war. No date for a possible third round of negotiations has been announced. In response to Pope Leo’s offer to host peace talks at the Vatican, Zelenskyy said this would be “entirely possible” but that it had so far been rejected by Russia.

Gaza turns into ‘graveyard’ for starving Palestinians

All the while, Israel has continued its horrendous attacks on aid-seeking Palestinians in Gaza as the UN agency for Palestinian refugees or UNRWA says the tiny strip has become the “graveyard of children” and “starving people”.

Israel is engineering a “cruel and Machiavellian scheme to kill” in Gaza, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini said. “Under our watch, Gaza has become the graveyard of children [and] starving people,” he said Friday in a post on X.

The world body also reported that since May, some 800 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid. The US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which began distributing aid at the end of May following a three-month Israeli blockade on Gaza, has been criticised for bypassing the UN-led system and violating the humanitarian impartiality rule.

Meanwhile, the US has imposed sanctions on UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese, who has been tasked by the UN to investigate human rights abuses in Palestinian territories. She has been an outspoken critic of what she describes as the Israeli “genocide” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and has strongly supported the arrest warrants issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the sanctions for what he said were “illegitimate and shameful efforts” by the special rapporteur to engage with the ICC to “prompt action” against America and Israel.

Meanwhile, efforts to negotiate a 60-day ceasefire are held up by Israel’s proposal to maintain military forces in more than 40 per cent of the Palestinian territory, AFP reported, citing Palestinian sources. Hamas has said it wants the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, which is home to more than two million people.

Discussions began in Qatar last Sunday (July 6) to try to agree on a temporary halt to the 21-month conflict sparked by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. But both sides have yet to come to terms on a core impasse – while Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire and full withdrawal, Netanyahu insists on the militant group’s unconditional surrender and removal.

In the meantime, a UN conference hosted by France and Saudi Arabia to work towards a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians has been rescheduled for July 28-29, diplomats said on Friday, after it was postponed last month when Israel launched a military attack on Iran.

“Crimes against humanity” in Sudan’s Darfur

At the same time, “war crimes and crimes against humanity” have reportedly been committed in Sudan’s western Darfur region, which has been experiencing a devastating conflict since 2023. 

Since the outbreak of the civil war, which has evolved into what is widely regarded as the most severe displacement crisis in modern history, an estimated 62,000 people have died and approximately 14 million individuals have been displaced.

There are “reasonable grounds to believe that war crimes and crimes against humanity” are being committed in Sudan’s western Darfur region, ICC Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan said while presenting her assessment of the conflict before the United Nations Security Council on Thursday (July 10), Al Jazeera reported.

The depth of suffering and the humanitarian crisis in Darfur “has reached an intolerable state”, with famine escalating and hospitals, humanitarian convoys and other civilian infrastructure being targeted, Khan said.

In June, the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan warned that both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had escalated the use of heavy weaponry in populated areas and weaponised humanitarian relief, amid the devastating consequences of the civil war.

The ongoing crisis in Sudan, which is traced back to 2019, following the ousting of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir, is also heavily influenced by the involvement of multiple external actors, each driven by its own political agenda and interests. But there are potential pathways to peace that need to be explored.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s foreign minister said the US was pressuring African countries to accept Venezuelan deportees, some straight out of prison. The Trump administration this week asked five African presidents visiting the White House to take in migrants from other countries when deported by the US, Reuters reported, citing two officials familiar with the discussions.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has been pressing to speed up deportations, including by sending migrants to third countries when there are problems or delays over sending them to their home nations.

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