Driven by declining geopolitical trust, nuclear competition, and escalating rivalries, defence spending has now increased for ten consecutive years. Across the Himalayas and throughout the Indian Ocean, military buildups are growing more complex and consequential.
The SIPRI estimates show that global defence spending rose by 9.4 per cent in 2024 in real terms, reaching approximately $2.72 trillion. The five largest military spenders – the US, China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia – together contributed around 61 per cent of global defence expenditures.
The steepest regional increases were observed in Europe (17 per cent) and West Asia, largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. The total world spending rose by 37 per cent in the past decade and the US continued to be the largest spender with $997 billion in 2024 – 3.2 times more than the next biggest spender, China.
However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) presents an alternative estimate, placing global defence spending at $2.46 trillion for 2024 – a 7.4 per cent increase after adjusting for inflation. Although both sources confirm a significant rise in global defence budgets, the SIPRI uses a more comprehensive accounting method – covering pensions and paramilitary forces – while IISS restricts its focus to formal military allocations.
South Asia’s expanding defence outlays
South Asia has emerged as one of the fastest militarising regions worldwide. According to the SIPRI, India’s military expenditure in 2024 stood at $86.1 billion, a 1.6 per cent increase from the previous year, placing it fifth among the top global spenders. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s defence budget was estimated at $10.2 billion, nearly nine times less than India’s, although Islamabad has now proposed a 20 per cent hike in military spending for 2025–26 in response to the recent military showdown with India.
India’s defence strategy largely revolves around addressing simultaneous challenges – maintaining stability along the Line of Actual Control with China and mitigating asymmetric security threats from Pakistan, particularly terrorism. With increasing maritime commitments and aspirations to become a regional security provider, India’s military focus is now deeply tied to its vision for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The Indian Navy has seen steady modernisation, with over $21 billion earmarked for equipment in the 2025–26 budget.
Pakistan continues to rely on a blend of conventional and nuclear deterrence. Although its economic situation limits long-term defence investments, its military planning remains responsive, aimed at preserving some degree of strategic balance with India. Islamabad’s increasing dependence on Chinese support, including under initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), enhances its military capacity but also deepens geopolitical reliance.
India’s balancing efforts in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region, home to seven of the 10 largest militaries, has become the focal point of the global rise in military expenditures. Three interconnected factors define this: China’s increasingly assertive military posture, India’s balancing efforts, and the strategic involvement of the US and its allies in shaping regional security.
— China: With a defence budget of $314 billion in 2024 – up 7 per cent from 2023 – China continues its three-decade trait of steady rise in military spending. IISS offers a slightly lower figure of $296 billion, noting a 6 per cent real-term increase. China is responsible for nearly 50 per cent of defence expenditure across Asia and Oceania, with its priorities centred on expanding anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, enhancing maritime surveillance, and updating its nuclear forces. China’s activities in the South China Sea, its port-building spree across the IOR, and its sharpening rhetoric on Taiwan have alarmed regional powers.
— India: India’s spending rose modestly by SIPRI’s estimate (1.6 per cent), but IISS reports a 4.2 per cent increase, possibly due to exchange rate adjustments and accounting categories. Strategically, India is placing increasing emphasis on maritime security, deterrence against China, and technological self-reliance. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh outlined a vision of “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” in defence production, with a target of 1.75 lakh crore (approx. $21 billion) in domestic military manufacturing in 2025.
— Pakistan: Faced with growing fiscal constraints, Pakistan’s real defence capacity remains limited. Yet, the proposed 20 per cent hike in 2025–26 aims to send a strong political message after its April 2025 confrontation with India. The addition of military pensions and a significant allocation for equipment purchases reflects its desire to keep pace strategically despite economic headwinds.
— Japan and Australia: Japan’s defence budget reached $55.3 billion in 2024, registering a 21 per cent increase, as Tokyo moves away from its post-WWII pacifism. Australia too continues to scale up, with its outlay of $33.8 billion, driven by the AUKUS agreement and a perceived need to counterbalance China in the Pacific. These actors amplify the Indo-Pacific’s shift from a trade-first paradigm to a security-centric theatre.
What fuels the fire
Military spending in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is not driven by economics alone – it is fed by an uptight mix of strategic distrust, nuclear deterrence, and sovereignty concerns.
Nuclear posturing
The nuclear arms race is once again intensifying, especially in Asia. According to SIPRI’s latest estimates, the total number of nuclear warheads globally stands at 12,241, with 9,614 in military stockpiles and around 3,912 deployed, some on high alert. The US and Russia together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. One of the most concerning trends is the continuous growth and upgrading of nuclear arsenals, particularly among China, India, and Pakistan.
China is estimated to have between 500 and 600 nuclear warheads and is reportedly expanding its arsenal by around 100 warheads per year. Over 350 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) silos are also under development. It is building a robust second-strike capability through sea- and air-based systems.
India is developing its nuclear triad with technologies like canisterised missile systems and ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), aiming to enhance both deployment flexibility and survivability. Pakistan is gradually expanding its nuclear arsenal and placing growing emphasis on tactical nuclear capabilities for potential use in regional conflict.
This expansion is closely linked to the deteriorating regional security situation. The 2025 India-Pakistan war and China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea have added urgency to nuclear preparedness. Compounding this are the failures of global arms control – such as the uncertain fate of New START – and the lack of regional risk-reduction mechanisms. West Asia is witnessing the consequences of this setback.
In the IOR, the presence of nuclear-armed submarines, especially from China and India, increases the risk of miscalculation. Without new confidence-building measures, the regional nuclear competition threatens to destabilise rather than deter.
Territorial and maritime disputes
China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea and increased naval presence in the Eastern IOR (Gwadar, Djibouti, Maldives) are reshaping strategic calculations. India’s response has been to deepen naval outreach, participate in multilateral naval exercises (like Malabar), and build infrastructure in the Andaman-Nicobar command.
Deterrence by denial
Rather than deterrence by punishment, many states in the region are focusing on deterrence by denial – developing submarine fleets, surveillance networks, and air defence systems to deny adversaries access to key maritime zones.
Securitisation of the commons
Even areas like seabed mapping, undersea cables, and marine biodiversity – once under scientific or civilian control – are now being securitised. This blurs the line between peace-time preparations and war-time readiness.
Need for confidence-building
The Indo-Pacific is evolving into one of the most militarised regions globally. Although modernisation and deterrence can promote security, the absence of clear military doctrines, effective arms control frameworks, and reliable confidence-building channels increases the risk of accidental escalation.
Despite their significant military budgets, India and China lack dedicated hotlines or transparent mechanisms to verify each other’s military activities – raising the risk of miscalculation during crises. India and Pakistan continue to observe a fragile ceasefire, but sustained diplomatic engagement and backchannel communications are largely absent. In such a context, every military drill, arms purchase, or border incident becomes a potential flashpoint.
There is an urgent need to reinvigorate CBMs – such as greater transparency in defence spending, advance notification of military drills, collaborative disaster-response training, and open dialogues on maritime security. Multilateral institutions like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and ASEAN need to be empowered to facilitate such efforts.
Long-term strategic stability in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific needs to go beyond deterrence. It demands sustained dialogue, responsible restraint, and a shared understanding that economic progress cannot flourish amid constant military tension.
Post Read Questions
According to recent reports by SIPRI and IISS, defence spending has increased for ten consecutive years globally. Evaluate major reasons behind this trend.
What does India’s rising defence expenditure reveal about its strategic priorities?
How is India’s defence strategy balancing its continental challenges with maritime ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region?
In what ways does India’s approach to balancing power in the Indo-Pacific illustrate its broader strategic goals amid China’s assertiveness and increasing US-led alignment in the region?
Discuss Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) that could help reduce tensions and enhance transparency in the Indo-Pacific.
(K.M. Seethi is the Director of Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala, and former Senior Professor of International Relations at the same university.)
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India's defence strategy largely revolves around addressing simultaneous challenges - maintaining stability along the Line of Actual Control with China and mitigating asymmetric security threats from Pakistan, particularly terrorism. 
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