Beyond Trending: What is coercive diplomacy?
What explains the prevailing situation in the US-Israel war on Iran, where a combination of military pressure and diplomatic negotiations by the US fails to yield a desired result?
President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday in Washington. (Source: AP Photo) US President Donald Trump’s effort to forge a peace deal with Iran does not seem to yield a desired result, as Israeli attacks continued across Lebanon despite a US-brokered ceasefire announced after talks in Washington, DC.
Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace deal with the US. At the same time, the two sides traded attacks in the Gulf on Wednesday (June 3, 2026) in one of the most intense bouts of fighting since early April, when a ceasefire halted large-scale hostilities, reported Reuters.
What explains the prevailing situation in the US-Israel war on Iran, where a combination of military pressure and diplomatic negotiations fails to yield a desired result? The concept of coercive diplomacy, in part, helps understand this.
Coercive diplomacy
The notion of coercive diplomacy, which became popular during the Cold War era, denotes the calculated use of threats and force to influence an opponent’s decision. Thomas Schelling and Alexander George, two noted scholars of international relations, are credited with elaborating the concept.
In his book Arms and Influence (1966), Schelling explains the notion of coercive diplomacy by arguing, “the power to hurt is bargaining power. To exploit it is diplomacy – vicious diplomacy, but diplomacy.” Noting the distinction between brute force and coercion, he says that “brute force succeeds when it is used, whereas the power to hurt is most successful when held in reserve.”
Example of Cuban missile crisis
In his book, Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War (1991), George similarly highlights the significance of combining threat with diplomatic efforts to persuade an opponent to stop or undo his effort to change a status quo.
He cites the Cuban missile crisis as one of the perfect examples of coercive diplomacy. In October 1962, Soviet deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles into Cuba brought the two superpowers of the Cold War era to the brink of nuclear warfare.
But US President John F Kennedy’s demonstration of his resolution to use a possible air strike or invasion of Cuba, alongside the blockade, induced Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev to remove the missiles.
Trump’s coercive diplomacy
Cut to the present situation around the US-Israel war on Iran. The US appears to combine military pressure with diplomatic negotiations to persuade Iran to comply. But the continuous violations of the ceasefire terms seemingly undermine the credibility of the US’s strategy.
In addition to failing to enforce the ceasefire conditions, the US also faces military strikes from Iran in the Gulf, hinting at the opponent’s perception of the credibility of threats. George discusses some of the conditions that favour effective coercive diplomacy, including:
- Clarity of the objective
- Strength of motivation
- Asymmetry of motivation
- Sense of urgency
- Adequate domestic and international support
- Opponent’s fear of unacceptable escalation
- Clarity concerning the precise terms of settlement of the crisis
When placed against these conditions, Trump’s attempts to compel Iran simply appear to lack credibility, as they are not consistently backed by action.
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