Can Iga Swiatek create history at Australian Open by becoming the 11th woman to complete the Grand Slam?

Since Don Budge achieved the feat over 90 years ago, only 18 singles players have managed the Grand Slam. 2026 sees the prospect of three more doing so, and while Jannik Sinner will have to wait for the French Open, both Swiatek and Carlos Alcaraz can break the barrier in Melbourne itself.

In a sport obsessed with pitting landmarks against landmarks, this is the real marker of greatness. The magnitude of reaching it, and the difficulty of doing so, was articulated best by Alcaraz himself. “Players who have been able to complete the four of them … adapt in different situations, different surfaces, different atmospheres,” he was quoted as saying by AP. “That makes a real champion.”

And the path to history is a tricky one for Swiatek. Firstly, because women’s tennis has been more of a lottery this past decade as opposed to the men’s side. For all the talk of the virtues of best-of-five-sets tennis, it makes upsets quite challenging at the Majors; the best players often have the chance to course correct during matches and make it a contest of endurance they are more likely to come out on top. The women, playing best-of-three, don’t get the same chances.

But even as Swiatek has amassed six Majors by the age of 24, her game is still in an evolutionary stage. A title in Melbourne was far less elusive for the expert claycourter than her resounding triumph on the grass of Wimbledon – with a 6-0, 6-0 drubbing in the final no less – but that victory had a lot of elements of the aforementioned lottery. A heady amalgamation of timing, results elsewhere, and a champion’s aptitude for rising to the occasion.

Her run at the United Cup last week is more representative of where her game is at the moment. Poland may have come out on top, but this time they were not spearheaded by Swiatek, who was defeated by both Coco Gauff and Belinda Bencic in the semifinals and finals of the team event.

Swiatek is still trying to overhaul her attack-first style, bringing in more controlled aggression and unlearning her tendency to just outhit her opponent. Much of the work she is doing with coach Wim Fissette centres around that. And it was that greater control, coupled with more reliable serving, that had inspired the triumph in Wimbledon. Both have deserted her in the past few months.

Sabalenka on top

It is not only battles of the mind she has to win to make history, but also a highly competitive field.

Belarusian World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka starts the tournament as the favourite. She has been in the final of each of the last six Majors on a hard court, a run that goes back to 2022, and won four of them. The Battle of the Sexes gimmick notwithstanding, she picked up right where she left off with a title win in Brisbane last week to start her preparations for a fifth Grand Slam title perfectly.

Third seed Gauff is also firmly in the mix. One of the positives – there aren’t many – of being so good so young is when the results are merely reliable and not spectacular, a top player can go under the radar with ease. Gauff, much like Swiatek, has a lot to change in terms of both technique and temperament, but her recent form has been solid. It is Swiatek’s good fortune that she has to play neither Gauff nor Sabalenka till the final.

But there are plenty of other sleepers that could make life difficult for the top trio. Elena Rybakina and Amanda Anisimova, fifth and fourth seeds respectively, have shown big-stage temperament in the past. Naomi Osaka is dangerous on any hard court, as she showed in her return to form at the US Open. More unheralded players, like the rising 17th seed Victoria Mboko, in Sabalenka’s section, are ones to watch out for.

And a bonus mention for a seven-time Major winner: Venus Williams, at 45, could face Gauff in the second round. Who knows how many of those matches she has left?