T20 world cup final Stats Corner: Rishabh Pant’s poor record against South Africa and Rabada vs Rohit holds key

Barring their Super 8 match against the United States, the South Africans are yet to put in a collective performance with their vaunted batting order. The wavering run of their top three comprising Quinton de Kock, Reeza Hendricks and Aiden Markram has not helped either. Similarly, even as India’s top-order (1-3) have made the most runs (325) since the Super 8s, they have hinged on Rohit Sharma’s success at the top, with the skipper making 52.7 percent (180) of the total runs. Rohit has also made more than 50 percent of India’s Powerplay runs in the Caribbean (108 of 206).

Among teams that made it to the Super 8s, India are fourth behind Australia, West Indies and England in terms of Powerplay run-rates, scoring at 8.58 per over. South Africa follow with an 8.28 run-rate.

New-ball matchups: The Rabada Test

South Africa’s three-pronged pace attack of Marco Jansen, Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje have excelled in manning different phases of play across the tournament. While the left-armer Jansen and Rabada have operated in the Powerplay, Nortje has terrorised oppositions in the middle-overs.

The role clarity has meant that Jansen has picked up all six of his wickets in the tournament while bowling almost entirely within the Powerplay. Jansen has had a largely subdued campaign, but three of his wickets came in a single spell in the semifinal against Afghanistan.

Disrupting the left-armer will be high on India’s priority as South Africa have generally used three of Jansen’s overs with the new ball. Both Rohit and Kohli haven’t faced much of Jansen in limited-overs formats. However, Kohli will have the dismissal against England’s Reece Topley in the semifinal reeling in his mind and the lanky Jansen is more than capable of drawing similar lines of attack.

However, it is Kagiso Rabada who offers a sterner test for Kohli and Rohit. The menial quick has been one of the most successful pacers against India’s batting stalwarts, having accounted for both batters on four occasions each in T20s. Rabada’s contest against an aggressive Rohit will spike interest, particularly when he has not conceded a single maximum in the Powerplay while going at an economy of under five and registering six wickets.

India’s number three Rishabh Pant too will have his task cut out when he comes up against a side that has had the wood over him in T20Is – his 15.42 average and 114.89 strike rate are his lowest returns against any team (min. 100 runs scored). Left-arm spinner Keshav Maharaj, who has chipped in occasionally in the Powerplay for the Proteas, had trapped Pant twice with an effective line of attack – wide outside the off-stump – during a 2022 T20I series in India. Pant had succumbed to South Africa’s ploy in four successive games then.

SA under the pump

Similar to India’s dependence on Rohit for the early overdrive, South Africa’s Powerplay returns have relied largely on Quinton de Kock, who has made 117 of the team’s 240 runs in the phase on the West Indies pitches.

The southpaw will be scrutinised heavily by Arshdeep Singh who has had his number thrice in seven T20 meetings. India have not been extensively penetrative with the ball in the Powerplay as their 13 wickets rank behind Afghanistan (22) and South Africa (15) in the tournament. However, they have not been profligate either, with the teams struggling to disrupt the menacing Jasprit Bumrah who has bossed the phase with a staggering 3.75 economy for four wickets.

The result could therefore be regulated by the rigour of the Powerplay bowling on the day, with India holding a slender advantage on the back of Rohit’s imposing presence.