India and Pakistan players line up ahead of their match at the 2024 T20 World Cup. (AP)
By announcing it would boycott the upcoming match against India in the T20 World Cup group stage, the Pakistan government on Sunday may have complicated the national team’s path to the Super 8s and knockouts.
Deciding to not play the February 15 contest in Colombo will mean Pakistan will have to seal three wins in their other three group-stage games. They are heavily favoured to do so, considering those matches are against vastly lower-ranked sides: Namibia, Netherlands and USA. But the latter team have already sprung a surprise on them with a Super Over win in the 2024 edition which knocked them out. They must ensure they don’t slip on another banana skin, especially considering their willful forfeiture of two crucial points.
Though the tournament format somewhat supports cricket’s global expansion, it is unlikely to threaten the top-ranked T20I teams. The group stage of the 20-team tournament will feature a bevy of lopsided contests — such as England and World Cup debutants Italy in Group C, separated by 23 places on the T20I rankings.
The 10th edition of the tournament will replicate the 2024 World Cup format. This includes nine of the top 10-ranked T20I sides, with the exception of Bangladesh, who were replaced by the International Cricket Council (ICC) with Scotland, after refusing to travel to India for their group games amid ongoing political tensions.
The group stage will comprise four pools of five teams in a single round-robin format. The top two teams from each group will proceed to the Super 8 stage.
Group A: India (1), Pakistan (6), Netherlands (13), Namibia (15), USA (18)
Group B: Australia (2), Ireland (11), Oman (20), Sri Lanka (8), Zimbabwe (12)
Group C: England (3), Italy (27), Nepal (16), Scotland (14), West Indies (7)
Group D: New Zealand (4), South Africa (5), Afghanistan (10), Canada (19), UAE (17)
India and Pakistan are expected to go through Group A. A similar trend holds across groups B and C, where former champions Australia, Sri Lanka, England, and West Indies are expected to take the qualifying spots.
However, Group D could make for an intriguing tussle, with New Zealand, South Africa and Afghanistan marked in a three-way race.
What makes the preliminary round predictable is the pre-determined nature of the Super 8 and the absence of incentives for finishing on top of the groups.
The top two teams from each of the four groups will enter the Super 8s based on their pre-determined seedings allotted by the ICC. The eight teams will be segregated into two groups of four – Group 1 and Group 2 – from which the top two teams will further advance into the semi-finals.
The pre-seeded teams from the four groups are: Group A – India (X1), Pakistan (Y3); Group B – Australia (X2), Sri Lanka (Y4); Group C – West Indies (X3), England (Y1); Group D – South Africa (X3), New Zealand (Y2).
Irrespective of first or second-placed finish in the group stage, all teams seeded X will form Group 1 of the Super 8s, while Y-coded teams form Group 2. All Group 1 games will be held across five cities in India, while Group 2 games will be played at two venues in Sri Lanka.
If a seeded team fails to qualify, then the prevailing team will assume the vacated seed in the Super 8s. Unheralded teams have challenged the seeding hierarchy before.
Not slipping up again will be a factor that Pakistan will bear in mind when they face the USA again on February 10 in Colombo. Bangladesh and Afghanistan were the other unseeded teams to qualify for the Super 8s last time, toppling Sri Lanka and New Zealand, respectively.
The venue for the knockouts, scheduled between March 5 and 8, will remain subject to Pakistan’s qualification. Should they qualify, Pakistan will play the first semi-final at the R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo, irrespective of first or second place in Group 2.
Pakistan’s qualification to the final can also flip the title clash within days from the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad to Colombo. An India-Pakistan semi-final is also a likely possibility in the format, scheduled to be held at Colombo again. However, if they are to play any other team in the last-four, India’s semi-final will be held on March 5 at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai, also their venue for the tournament opener against the USA this Saturday.
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