70-30 in favour of Fabi: Hans Niemann’s prediction for Gukesh D’s World Championship defense if Caruana makes cut

Caruana was denied FIDE Freestyle World Championship in 2026 and 2018 Classical World Championship both by Magnus Carlsen. (PHOTO: Freestyle Chess/Lennart Ootes)

The upcoming Candidates will have Caruana as one of the most experienced players in the field of eight. Joining him will be fellow American grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura. Both Nakamura and Caruana have been constants in the top 3 ranks in the FIDE rankings for the better part of the past decade. Meanwhile, Anish Giri too comes into the Candidates with plenty of experience. India’s only contender at the Candidates will be Praggnanandhaa, who competed in the previous event in Toronto. Other contenders like Javokhir Sindarov, Andrey Esipenko, Matthias Bluebaum and Wei Yi have never been to a Candidates previously.

“Obviously, regarding players like Bluebaum and Esipenko, it’s highly doubtful that they would win. Among the five others, I don’t see a big difference in how they could perform in only 14 games. So, I would say Fabi is the favourite. But if you ask me to choose between the rest, I would say Sindarov because of his good recent results. If I had to pick a third, it would probably be Praggnanandhaa. Those are the three favorites,” Niemann added.

“Other than that, Hikaru is inactive from classical chess. He doesn’t actually play classical games often, so I wouldn’t consider him that likely,” the American said.

When asked for his opinion on what would happen at the World Championships at the end of the year if Caruana qualified for the clash against Gukesh, Niemann said: “I would say it’s probably 75-25 in favor of Fabi. Maybe 70-30.”