Fabiano Caruana names Praggnanandhaa among top favourites to win Candidates 2026

“It’s a fair bet (that I’m rooting for myself to win). I want to win; it’s the only goal of the Candidates. But I do see it as a very close affair. I know that people in general probably have the view that there are a few select favourites, and maybe they’re right. Usually, if you go by ratings, it might be a good bet to decide things. It’s very often objective, but I still think it’s a very close affair,” Caruana said while creating a Candidates “tierlist” for Chessbase India. “Perhaps as opposed to some previous Candidates, I think the preparation gap has gotten very narrow. Everyone is more or less equally prepared, so it comes down to other factors. Whatever those factors are, we’ll see. I would expect that there are many players who can fight for first place in this tournament. Perhaps not everyone has equally good chances, but many players can realistically fight for first.”

R Praggnanandhaa, Anish Giri, and Fabiano Caruana will be fighting it out in the eight-man Candidates tournament from March 28 to April 16. (Picture Credit: GCL)

Caruana’s assessment was that Pragg and Nakamura were the two main favorites (after him), with Javokhir Sindarov, Wei Yi and Anish also likely to be in contention.

Assessing the Candidates

Talking about the rest of the seven Candidates who he will be up against, Caruana said: “If the question is whether I would just go the safe way and go by rating… for me, I would put Praggnanandhaa quite high (among the favourites). Although he’s had a poor run over the last six months since the Sinquefield Cup, last year he showed the ability to win top tournaments. To me, that elevates him more than current ratings. We should also put some stock into recent form. I don’t know if I would have him as No 1, but I would definitely put Pragg amongst the favorites.

“I respect Andrey Esipenko’s play very much, but it would be hard for me to put him as a favourite just because he hasn’t won major events and because of his rating. However, I still think he’s very capable. I find him a very dangerous opponent, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be able to win a really major top tournament like this. He can definitely score well and ruin some people’s tournaments.

“Wei Yi is difficult for me to judge because he’s so strong. You can see his games; he plays with incredible accuracy and can figure out positions perfectly. In terms of winning tournaments, he doesn’t have many wins under his belt, but he has the rating and a lot of experience against top players. He’s been at the top for a decade now—he was 2700 at 15 years old. Personally, I have a good score against him, so maybe it biases me a little bit, but I would place Pragg over him in terms of chances to win.

Caruana said that he would believe that Anish Giri has “more chances than Wei Yi” of winning because of “his experience at the top level”.

“Anish is a very good chess thinker in general and is able to come up with strategies. The question is: can he win the many games that might be necessary? That hasn’t been his strongest suit. He’s a very stable, consistent player who has been in the top 10 for a decade. He’s one of my childhood contemporaries—we’re two years apart—so I would put him probably a bit ahead of Wei Yi and a bit below Pragg.”

Caruana also said that Frenchman Matthias Bluebaum is one of those players who can “ruin people’s tournaments and potentially put up a good score”. But, the American added, Bluebaum “has limited chances to actually win the tournament. Objectively, I would have to put him at the lowest, though he can still perform very well.”

Talking about Uzbek prodigy Javokhir Saindarov, who recently won the FIDE World Cup in India, Caruana added: “Sindarov can definitely win tournaments; he’s very dangerous and has that killer instinct. Similar to Pragg. But he has very little experience, but it could be that he doesn’t need it. The first time I played the Candidates, I also had little experience, but I had enough to fight for first place. He’s on a very hot streak. I would probably not put him at the same level as Pragg, but maybe between Pragg and Anish.”

Finally, when it came to his compatriot Hikaru Nakamura, who has been among the world’s top 3 ranked chess player for over a decade (just like Caruana), Fabi said: Hikaru I would put around the same level as Pragg. He has experience winning and he’s the oldest player. We have the same experience level; we’ve both been playing around the top since 2011 or 2012. He hasn’t won an enormous amount of tournaments in his career, but he definitely knows the taste of victory. Last time he was relatively close; he had to beat Gukesh in the last round. He wasn’t close to winning that specific game, but being in contention in the last round against the leader is about as close as you can get. He’s definitely capable. It’s hard to say because he’s not super active, but we know his strength. It would be strange to put him lower than Pragg.”