Why Sharad Pawar comeback to helm has set off alarm bells in NCP

Ajit Pawar as the pivot

Senior leaders in both factions acknowledge that Ajit Pawar had played the central role in the merger talks. He had opened communication channels with Sharad Pawar and asked leaders such as Jayant Patil and Shashikant Shinde to hold discussions and was insistent on the merger of the two factions.

Sharad Pawar confirmed this, saying, “For the last four months, Ajit Pawar and Jayant Patil discussed the issue of the merger of two parties. Now, the unfortunate accident has happened. It seems that the process will now be discontinued.”

He added, “Ajit Pawar, Jayant Patil and Shashikant Shinde were involved in the talks of merger.”

With Ajit Pawar no longer present, leaders said the talks have lost their main organiser and mediator, making it harder to carry forward negotiations that depended on his standing within the ruling faction.

Concern over positions

Several leaders who remained with Ajit Pawar after the 2023 split currently hold ministerial posts or key organisational roles. A merger would require accommodating leaders from the Sharad Pawar faction, leading to a reshuffle in both the Cabinet and the party.

Senior leaders said this has created concern among those who fear losing their positions or influence.

A reunion would also bring back leaders such as Jayant Patil, Anil Deshmukh to the centre of party affairs. Many of them moved into the Opposition after the split and would now seek a role in a unified party as well as the government. Many second-rung NCP leaders who would not oppose this during the presence of Ajit Pawar feel more emboldened to speak out against accommodating new leaders in his absence.

Sharad Pawar back at the centre

Another source of discomfort is the possibility of Sharad Pawar regaining control over the party’s direction. A merged NCP would likely see Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule playing a central role in decision making.

Some leaders who rose in the Ajit Pawar faction after the split now fear their influence would decline under Sharad Pawar’s leadership.

The original split in NCP was partly driven by dissatisfaction over Sharad Pawar’s leadership and his insistence on running the party based on his personal ideological alignments rather than the demands of his party members. While the NCP, since its inception, has spent a bulk of its existence in power, Sharad Pawar’s decision to not align with the BJP when it had become a politically dominant entity in the state, in spite of repeated requests from his party men, was one of the reasons for the split. A section of NCP leaders now feels that while the family of Ajit Pawar in leadership roles would be more pliable, the same cannot be said of Sharad Pawar.

There is also concern over how a reunited NCP would function within the BJP-led ruling Mahayuti alliance. Leaders aligned with the Ajit Pawar faction worry that a party led by Sharad Pawar could reduce its dependence on the BJP and change its political approach.

These leaders view their current role in government as a key advantage and fear that reunification could weaken their position within the Mahayuti.

BJP’s hesitation over Sharad Pawar

The BJP is seen as an important factor in any reunification move. Political observers say the party would be more cautious dealing with a united NCP led by Sharad Pawar than with a faction led by second level leaders.

Sharad Pawar’s experience and negotiating ability give him greater influence in coalition politics. A stronger NCP under his leadership could press harder on issues such as portfolios, policies and seat sharing.

By contrast, leaders from the Ajit Pawar faction who hold ministerial posts are seen as more dependent on the BJP, making coordination easier.

There is also concern that Sharad Pawar’s return to a central role could reopen channels with Opposition parties at the national level, affecting the stability of the ruling alliance in Maharashtra.