Why bypoll results are bad news for BJP, but not good news for Opposition

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Another interesting point is the vote share in Bankipur. Kishor managed to get 49.23%  of the votes, and the BJP’s vote share, which was over 62 per cent in the 2025 state polls, plummeted to 34.4% this time.

The message in Bankipur trends

Bankipur send out several messages. One, the BJP’s setback in one of its safest constituencies in Bihar – one with an unusually high “upper caste” presence, and won by BJP chief Nitin Nabin four times – is a warning signal for the party.

Caste and community-wise estimates maintained by political parties in Bihar show the following population pattern for Bankipur – 14-% Kayasthas; 12-% Muslims; 9-% Chandravanshis (Kahars), who are EBCs; 9-% Baniyas; 9-% SCs; 8-% Bhumihars; 8-% Brahmins; 7-% Rajputs; 5-% Kurmis and 3-% Kushwahas.

While these are just estimates of political players there, they do indicate an exceptionally high 37-% “upper castes” – minus the Baniyas, who are OBC in Bihar but in the general category elsewhere.

An official in Bihar told The Indian Express that two reasons were decisive locally – firstly, the BJP candidate, a last-moment replacement, was seen as lacking the profile to become MLA, and, secondly, there are already indications of discontent among “upper castes” over the BJP choosing a Kushwaha in Samrat Chaudhary as Chief Minister.

This puts the BJP in a quandary in post-Nitish Bihar: “upper castes” are signalling that they are open to an alternative – though it isn’t RJD, yet – unless their demands are met. But any attempt to meet their demands may eat into the party’s OBC and EBC votes in the absence of Nitish, who was the glue between Bihar’s “upper castes”, OBCs and EBCs. The BJP can, however, take some heart from the fact that the shift has been towards PK – a Brahmin with no organisational heft yet – and not towards arch-rival RJD.

The official, however, cautioned that one bypoll may not constitute a trend, and this shift could reverse in the Lok Sabha from the same constituency, unless national factors push the BJP’s core voters to vote against it.

This brings the national churn in sharp focus. While it is early days to be definitive, the now-stayed UGC regulation on caste discrimination on campuses – which led to an “upper caste” outcry – the NEET paper leaks, which affect the “upper castes” perhaps the most, and the recent Gen Z protests in which predominantly Hindu and significantly “upper caste”, OBC and Dalit youngsters took part, have the potential to disturb caste calculations the BJP took for granted till recently.

On his part, Kishor downplays his “upper caste” identity, which may have led to the transfer of some OBC and Dalit votes, too, particularly at a time when the Gen Z protests in Delhi, Bihar, Maharashtra and other places may have made his pro-governance and development pitch acquire a cross-caste appeal. Caste combinations aside, Bankipur is also urban, sizeably middle class, and thus “aspirational” — something that would give the BJP a lot to think about.

Congress cheers in Datia

In Datia, Madhya Pradesh, Ghanshyam Singh of the Congress won by 6,016 votes over Ashutosh Tiwari of the BJP. The jolt to the BJP in Datia, however, will not be as strong as Bankipur. The reason: the Congress won Datia in 2023 too, amid a BJP sweep in the state.

However, Datia is no Congress stronghold. Since 1990, the BJP has won Datia four times, and the Congress has won it thrice. In 1998, the Samajwadi Party won the seat because Congress veteran Rajendra Bharti shifted to the party. Bharti won again as a Congress candidate in 2023.

Earlier this year, Bharti was sentenced to three years in jail in a bank fraud case, leading to his disqualification as an MLA. To add to his troubles, the Congress leadership suspended him hours before the counting of votes after the Congress candidate Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh accused him of working with the BJP to damage the Congress’s poll chances.

Manjalpur: BJP’s lone solace

The one seat the BJP can take solace from is Manjalpur in Gujarat, a party stronghold. The BJP’s Satyendrabhai Patel defeated the Congress’s Bhikhabhai Rabari by 30,630 votes. In 2022, the BJP swept this seat, with its candidate Yogesh Patel securing 75.85-% votes. The BJP has never secured less than 65.5-% votes in this constituency since it was created in 2008.

Setback for BJP, but not good news for Opposition

Losing two out of three bypolls may be bad news for the BJP, but the Opposition may not have a lot to cheer about. In Bankipur, support has shifted away from the BJP but not towards the traditional opponent RJD. Instead, voters have rallied behind Kishor. In fact, the RJD’s voteshare has dropped substantially from close to 30 per cent in last year’s Assembly polls, to 10.95%.

In Datia, the Congress may defeat the BJP, but it was not a BJP-held seat to begin with. Also, Chandrashekhar Azad’s Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) polled 22,527 votes. This effectively means that anti-BJP votes continue to be divided and not all voters upset with the saffron party are willing to see the mainstream Opposition parties as a choice. Instead, newer and smaller forces attract them. The Opposition, therefore, has little reason to celebrate and has a Herculean task ahead.