Why BJP’s candidate switch in Nitin Nabin’s seat can give ammo to Prashant Kishor’s bid

The BJP had initially fielded Abhishek Kumar, considered close to the party’s national president Nitin Nabin, for the Bankipur by-election. However, soon afterwards, Kumar withdrew his nomination, citing “family reasons”. The party then named Neeraj Kumar Sinha as its candidate from the seat, who is also a first-timer and is seen as close to Nabin.

The bypoll was necessitated after Nabin, who represented Bankipur for five consecutive terms, was elected to the Rajya Sabha following his elevation as the BJP chief.

The Bankipur contest has now evolved into a triangular fight. The BJP is banking on its long-standing hold over the constituency, while the RJD has fielded Rekha Gupta, who finished a runner-up in the 2025 Assembly election. Kishor has sought to project this bypoll as a “referendum” on the political choices of Bihar’s urban electorate. Calling Bankipur “the political and administrative heart of Bihar”, the JSP chief said the constituency, which houses the Chief Minister’s Secretariat and Raj Bhavan, should vote beyond caste considerations.

A senior BJP leader acknowledged that the party had “misjudged” its initial candidate selection in Bankipur. “The BJP’s confidence comes from the fact that we have retained this seat continuously since 1995. Nabin has won it comfortably in every election since 2005. But the party erred in screening Kumar. His father, Ravindra Prasad, is among those convicted in the fodder scam, and it was only a matter of time before the issue surfaced,” the BJP leader said.

“When the BJP leadership realised Kishor was preparing to campaign aggressively on the issue, a decision was taken to replace the candidate. We remain confident, but the controversy is likely to remain part of the campaign,” the leader added.

Oppn smells a chance

RJD national spokesperson Subodh Kumar Mehta said the party expected the triangular contest to work in its favour. “Our candidate secured over 46,000 votes in the 2025 election against Nabin. Every party works on its own social coalition alongside the development agenda. A three-cornered contest gives us an opportunity,” he said.

Kishor has tried to frame the contest in broader political terms. “No constituency is a permanent bastion in a democracy. Ultimately, people decide,” he said. “This election is a test for Bihar’s urban voters and whether they are willing to embrace an alternative political narrative. The 2025 Assembly election was dominated by the government’s Rs 10,000 cash assistance scheme for women. A bypoll allows voters to deliberate differently.”

JSP leader Kishor Kumar Munna said the BJP would have to answer questions over its claims of “chaal, charitra aur chehra (conduct, character and leadership)”. “We had gathered complete information about the candidate the BJP eventually had to withdraw. By fielding Kishor, we are directly challenging the BJP in one of its strongest constituencies,” he said.

Bankipur has long been regarded as one of the BJP’s safest urban seats. It covers several government offices, established residential neighbourhoods and a predominantly upper-caste electorate. The constituency was represented first by the late Navin Kishore Prasad Sinha and later by his son, Nabin.

What is at stake?

For the BJP, retaining Bankipur is important not only electorally but also symbolically, given its position as the party’s urban stronghold in Bihar. The decision to replace its original nominee suggests the leadership was unwilling to allow the campaign to be overshadowed by allegations linked to the fodder scam.

For Kishor, the bypoll is his first direct electoral contest after years of political mobilisation through the Jan Suraaj campaign. A strong performance in Bankipur would bolster his claim that his appeal extends beyond rural outreach and into Bihar’s urban middle class, potentially reshaping the state’s conventional electoral alignments.

The RJD hopes that a split in the BJP’s traditional support base could create an opening for Gupta in what would otherwise have been a formidable contest.