Why BJP lost Madhya Pradesh bypoll: The shadow of Narottam Mishra

The unrest began before the campaign proper had even started. When Tiwari’s candidature was announced, Mishra’s supporters blocked roads in the constituency, clashed with the police, and announced resignations from party posts, turning an internal disagreement into a public spectacle days before a single vote had been sought. The BJP’s central problem was already visible: it had to run a campaign for a candidate whose own nomination was being overshadowed by a public display of grief by Mishra’s supporters.

Reflecting on the loss, state BJP president Hemant Khandelwal said, “We will study the results. Based on those findings, the party will decide its strategy.” He cautioned that the party would “take action against those who failed to maintain discipline”.

Mishra did, in the end, campaign for the party, going door to door on Tiwari’s behalf and predicting a BJP win as counting began. But a campaign built on borrowed organisation carries its own cost.

BJP leaders said Tiwari needed Mishra’s network to reach voters who had spent two decades taking their political cues from him and that dependence meant the candidate could never present himself as free of the leader the party had just dropped.

“For voters who wanted the BJP to move past the Mishra era, that was reason enough to withhold their vote. For Mishra loyalists who felt the ticket denial as a personal slight, Tiwari’s candidacy was never going to be a full substitute for their own leader’s name on the ballot,” said a BJP leader.

Congress star

The credit for the victory should go to the Congress’s Satna MLA Sidhartha Kushwaha, an emerging face from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), said state Congress president Jitu Patwari.

Kushwaha coordinated the party’s Datia campaign throughout, party insiders said. The MLA said he camped in the constituency for weeks, running a small team that worked booth by booth to consolidate Kushwaha votes in what turned out to be the election’s decisive zones. With this victory, Kushwaha has suddenly emerged as a rising star in the Congress, someone whom the party will bank on to consolidate OBC votes in other regions.

The resentment against Narottam Mishra’s conduct in office was the dominant factor behind the BJP’s loss, Kushwaha told The Indian Express.

“The biggest factor was Narottam Mishra’s dadagiri (bullying),” he said. “The BJP government used its machinery to intimidate people and there was a lot of corruption. People were tired of it.” He also spoke of the steady migration from the constituency to other states for work and the constituency’s identity as a temple town. These were undercurrents in a contest that was fought, in his account, on “hyper-local grievances”.

The result unfolded against a Congress campaign that was hardly free of its own turbulence. The party expelled former MLA Rajendra Bharti, whose disqualification had triggered the by-election, less than a day before counting amid accusations that he had worked against the candidate. Singh had alleged during the campaign that Bharti’s camp was attempting to undercut him, though he maintained any such effort would touch only a limited number of votes.

Three advantages

Singh’s victory was not built on a wave but on three advantages that made him a difficult opponent for the BJP.

First, he was not a new face. At 72, Ghanshyam Singh is one of the most recognisable politicians in the region. A member of the erstwhile royal family, he has represented Datia twice (1993 and 2003) and later Sewda. “Unlike Tiwari, who was fighting his first Assembly election, Singh did not need an introduction. He brought with him decades-old personal networks that extended beyond the Congress organisation,” said a senior Congress leader.

Even as the party battled internal rebellion, Singh was not entirely dependent on the Congress machinery. “His personal goodwill, royal lineage and long-standing relationships in Datia meant he could draw support beyond committed Congress voters. That reduced the damage caused by factionalism within the party,” the leader said.

Finally, Singh fought a hyper-local campaign. Rather than making the election a referendum on the state government, the Congress focused on migration, unemployment, fertiliser shortages, erratic rainfall, and resentment against entrenched local political networks. That message appears to have resonated in the rural belt, where turnout was nearly 78% compared with around 62% in urban Datia.

Conceding defeat, Tiwari struck a subdued note. “I stand before the public and bow down. We will reflect on this loss. I will continue to remain part of public life,” he said.

Jitu Patwari framed the result as an indictment of the state government rather than a personal defeat for Tiwari. “I want to thank the people of Datia, who exposed the real face of the Madhya Pradesh government — arrogance, corruption. I want to congratulate them. We will be indebted to them. They have laid the foundation of change,” Patwari said.

Chief Minister Mohan Yadav denied that the party’s support had eroded, telling reporters that the BJP had in fact polled more votes than in the previous election. “We will fight with even greater strength in the coming elections and win,” he said.