Why BJP decided against drastic changes in Maharashtra, retained 80 MLAs in first list

“In any election, there are always three to four promising aspirants for every constituency … Those left out are bound to get upset,” says a BJP leader.

“The sole criteria for giving ticket is winnability,” state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said after the list was released. (Photo: X)

After the BJP’s decision to drop half a dozen sitting MPs in Maharashtra backfired in the Lok Sabha elections — it won nine of the 28 seats it contested — the party has adopted a more cautious approach in the Assembly elections and fielded its tried-and-tested leaders. In the first list of 99 announced on Sunday, the party retained 80 of its MLAs.

“The party decided against making any drastic changes as seen in Gujarat and Haryana, where almost half the MLAs were dropped. Only in certain constituencies where the winnability factor of sitting MLAs is completely ruled out, will it go for fresh faces,” said a senior state BJP leader. In the recent Haryana polls, the BJP retained only 23 of its 40 MLAs.

A BJP insider said the party did not want to rock its own boat and get bogged down with fire-fighting, given that the Opposition is stronger in Maharashtra compared to a state such as Gujarat. “We don’t want to promote rebels, Independents,” said a state Cabinet minister from the BJP.

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“The sole criteria for giving ticket is winnability,” state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said after the list was released. “The party takes the decision collectively. There is a mechanism which is strictly implemented.”

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP contested 164 seats and won 105 seats while the undivided Sena contested 128 seats and bagged 56. This time, the party is aiming to contest 150-155 seats, the Shiv Sena 80-85 constituencies, and the NCP 50-55 seats.

Some of the 25 BJP MLAs who did not feature in the first list have made a beeline at the home of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in the past two days to push their candidature. Some ticket aspirants who are not likely to get a ticket have either joined another party or threatened to switch sides. Several such ticket aspirants are those whose kin have already got tickets from the BJP.

While the senior BJP MP and former Union Minister Narayan Rane’s son Nitesh is again contesting from Kankavli Assembly constituency in Sindhudurg district, the party did not give a ticket to his brother Nilesh, who unsuccessfully fought the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, is set to join the Sena and contest from the nearby Kudal constituency. Similarly, senior MLA Ganesh Naik got the ticket from Airoli in Thane district but his son Sandeep who was denied a ticket from Belapur in the same district has joined the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and is likely to get the Opposition party’s ticket from the seat. The BJP has fielded sitting MLA Manda Mhatre from Belapur.

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While some BJP leaders pointed to a “one family, one ticket” norm, others in the party pointed out that the party had already fielded brothers from the same family: Ashish Shelar (Bandra West) and Vinod Shelar (Malad West). “In any election, there are always three to four promising aspirants for every constituency. Ultimately, we have to select just one candidate per constituency. Those left out are bound to get upset,” said a BJP leader, adding that the party would try and get the rebels to withdraw before October 31, the last day for withdrawing nominations.

Even in seats such as Shrigonda, Phulambri, and Chinchwad, where the party changed candidates, it did so with the consensus of the outgoing MLA. In Shrigonda in Ahmednagar district, the party replaced sitting MLA Babanrao Panchpute with his wife Pratibha while in Phulambri, the party has fielded Arundhatitai Chavan after Haribhau Bagade was moved to Rajasthan as Governor. In Chinchwad in Pune district, the party replaced sitting MLA Ashwini Laxman Jagtap with her brother-in-law Shankar Jagtap, while in Kalyan East, Ganpat Gaikwad who is in jail for opening fire at a Sena leader in a police station earlier this year has been replaced by his wife Sulabha.

Among the MLAs retained are 10 heavyweight ministers, including Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil, Sudhir Mungantiwar, and Magal Prabhat Lodha. Mungantiwar has been fielded from Ballarpur in Chandrapur district, months after losing the Lok Sabha elections from the parliamentary constituency. “Had we dropped him, it would have conveyed a wrong message in Vidarbha.”

One of the big changes in the region was in Kamthi, where sitting MLA Teckchand Sawarkar was replaced by Bawankule as the party wanted to appease the latter’s Teli OBC community. Vidarbha has 62 Assembly seats and will be crucial to how the BJP fares in the polls. In 2014, when it came to power with 122 seats, the BJP swept Vidarbha by winning 44 seats in Vidarbha. In 2019, when the party’s tally dropped to 105, a major chunk of the losses came in Vidarbha where the party lost 15 seats. An analysis of the recent Lok Sabha polls shows that the Mahayuti alliance, of which the BJP is a part, led 22 Assembly segments while the Maha Vikas Aghadi was ahead in 35 segments, with the rest going to smaller parties and Independents.