Blueprint to block BJP? Why an MNS-Shinde Sena pact could echo in BMC battle

Despite the strong reactions, neither the ties between the MNS and Sena (UBT) have broken nor has the support extended by the MNS to the Shinde-led Sena been withdrawn.

But in Kalyan-Dombivli, sources said the move had little to do with optics or alliance politics. What played out was driven by a chain of events that began before polling day and intensified immediately after the results.

What led to this alliance

It all started well before the nomination stage when the BJP poached several candidates who were expected to contest for the MNS, leaving Raj Thackeray’s party struggling to field candidates in multiple wards.

At the same time, the seat-sharing arrangement between the BJP and the Shiv Sena resulted in several Sena leaders being denied tickets as their wards were allotted to the BJP. With the MNS facing a shortage of candidates, it fielded these Sena leaders.

The Shiv Sena supported these candidates during the campaign, providing workers and organisational assistance and this played a role in their victories. In the end, the BJP won 50 seats in the 122-member House, the Sena 53, the MNS 5, and the Sena (UTB) 11.

Soon after the results, four of the five MNS corporators were in touch with the Sena, while some of them were also approached by the BJP. Sena leader Rajesh Kadam said three of the five MNS corporators had joined the party shortly before the polls and were keen on making a return. A source said a fourth MNS corporator was also keen on joining the Sena since he received help from the party in his contest against the BJP.

Sources said the Shinde-led Sena, too, had a strategic interest in ensuring that the MNS remained intact and aligned with it, as a BJP takeover of the KDMC would have significantly altered the balance within the ruling alliance at a time when mayoral battles are unfolding simultaneously across Maharashtra.

Faced with the risk of an uncontrolled breakaway, the MNS leadership moved swiftly, sources said. Former MLA Raju Patil briefed party chief Raj Thackeray on the situation and soon afterwards, the party formally announced its support for the Sena.

Publicly described as a local decision, those involved said the move was made to keep the party intact in the KDMC. Sources also claimed that Uddhav Thackeray was aware of the situation, adding that four Sena (UBT) corporators were also set to join the Shinde-led party.

“The decision was driven by concerns over the MNS’s own survival and relevance in the civic body,” said a leader. “Had four MNS corporators broken away individually, the party would have been reduced to a marginal presence in KDMC, weakening its ability to negotiate or influence decisions in the corporation.”

The situation changed sharply on January 22, when a lottery reserved the KDMC Mayor’s post for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category. The BJP has 50 corporators, but none of them is an Adivasi, effectively leaving the party with no clear route to the Mayor’s chair.

The MNS, however, has one ST corporator: Sheetal Mandhari. Sources said if the MNS had backed the BJP, Mandhari would have automatically become the BJP-backed Mayor, handing KDMC to the ruling party and giving Chavan a major civic win on his home turf. However, that door appears to be effectively shut.

Why it matters in Mumbai

The developments in the KDMC are being closely watched at a time the mayoral process is unfolding across Maharashtra’s civic bodies, including the BMC.

In the Mumbai civic body, the BJP and the Sena are locked in a tense battle for control. Soon after the results were declared, Sena corporators were kept in a city hotel, underlining the intensity of negotiations and the fear of defections.

A BJP mayor in KDMC would have strengthened the party’s hand in parallel negotiations in Mumbai, but instead the outcome in Kalyan-Dombivli has allowed Shinde to push back, signalling that numbers alone may not decide mayoral claims when post-poll alignments shift.

Mahayuti leaders said friction over whether the mayor’s term should be split — including the two-and-a-half-year formula seen in other civic bodies — had added to the tension, making the KDMC a particularly sensitive test case for both parties.

The KDMC is also not just another civic body, as it is a part of Shinde’s home turf. His son Shrikant Shinde is the MP from Kalyan and the region has seen a long-running tussle between the Shinde camp and the local BJP leadership, particularly Chavan, who has risen to head the state BJP.

For Shinde, controlling the KDMC is crucial to consolidating his hold in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region after the 2022 split. For Shrikant, the civic body is a key base where the party wants to show it can run major municipal corporations without conceding space to the BJP.

However, the civic body carries equal weight for the BJP too. The city has a sizeable Marathi Brahmin population, a core support base for the party. The BJP views the KDMC as a natural expansion zone and the stakes are higher not just because of Chavan. A BJP mayor in KDMC would have been a strong political statement for the state leadership.

Leaders said the developments were being closely watched as a possible template for how post-poll alignments may evolve in Mumbai and other major civic bodies, where numbers alone may not decide power and smaller parties or factions could emerge as decisive players.