What led to record turnout in Assam polls: Roll revision, polarisation key factors

According to the latest figures published by the EC on Thursday, of the state’s 126 constituencies, 18 registered a voter turnout above 90%.

The highest turnout was a whopping 96.54% in Lower Assam’s Birsing Jarua constituency. Six other constituencies – Chenga, Dalgaon, Gauripur, Jaleshwar, Srijangram and Mankachar – registered turnouts above 95%. Notably, all seven of these are constituencies where Bengali-origin Muslims constitute a majority of the voters. The community routinely registers a high turnout, something that observers attribute to anxieties surrounding the citizenship status of voters and fears of names being struck off from electoral rolls.

Addressing a press conference on Friday, Assam BJP president Dilip Saikia said the high turnout in other constituencies is a bigger takeaway.

“We have always known that constituencies like Chenga and Dalgaon will have 96-97% voting. But that the turnout in Nalbari (90.46%) or Tihu (87.02%) would be nearly 90% is not something a lot of people had foreseen… Even in Guwahati, there was 75-77% voting, which means that urban people are not that much behind rural voters this time… We will just say our own sinaki (familiar) people have given more votes this time… Our other people who would earlier hesitate in some way have come forward to vote for a strong government,” he said.

Saikia said that according to the party’s assessment, a high turnout would be a factor that “positively affects” the outcome in the NDA’s favour in more than 25 seats, and predicted a “historic mandate” for the ruling party.

Assam Congress leader and Dispur candidate Mira Borthakur Goswami, on the other hand, pointed to the traditional understanding that a high turnout signals anti-incumbency.

“People were in line from 8 am to 5 pm because they want poriborton (change). The silent votes will come to us because they cannot tolerate the misgovernance under and behaviour of (Chief Minister) Himanta Biswa Sarma, and no one else in the BJP has control over the situation,” she said.

However, political commentator and Cachar College professor Joydeep Biswas said he doubts that this “standard theory” explains the turnout in Assam.

“What I see it as is ‘competitive voting’ driven by the polarised environment and election, where even though minority voters have always had a tendency to vote in higher numbers, there is greater fear. On the other hand, other voters have been repeatedly told that there is a threat to their culture and existence. It is competitive on both sides,” he said.

Another political commentator and professor at Gauhati University, Akhil Ranjan Dutta, said one straightforward factor contributing to higher turnouts would be the Special Revision exercise undertaken ahead of the elections. In the final voter list released on February 10, there was a net decrease of 2.43 lakh voters from the draft list released earlier, resulting from deaths, voters shifting, and removal of voters appearing in rolls of multiple constituencies.

He too counted “competitiveness” as a factor, but gave more weight to competitive organisation and mobilisation by parties and candidates, and community groups.

“We now have a situation where mainstream political parties have become very competitive. The BJP has explored all possibilities of bringing out voters. The Opposition also tried its best and the Congress gained a vibrancy by having a clear face at the helm. Despite developments like prominent leaders leaving just before the elections, this reassured workers that the party still stands… And ethnic organisations have become increasingly active in Assam, many of which have been co-opted by the incumbent government, but are also important to the Opposition parties to try to mobilise in their favour. At the same time, because a community has been targeted so much, they are also stepping up even more to the ballot box. All these factors have combined into a competitive voting environment,” he said.

He also particularly emphasised women’s participation. Women’s voter turnout this time stands at 86.5%, up from 82.01% in 2021. “Because of the beneficiary schemes targeting women, there has been an unprecedented wave of women as agents of political mobilisation and campaigning,” he said.