Why Mamata is facing battle of her life: SIR deletions to agencies’ heat, ‘anti-incumbency’

Making inroads in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had bagged 18 of 42 seats as compared to the TMC’s 22. In the 2021 Assembly elections, however, the TMC established its supremacy decisively, winning 215 of 294 seats as against the BJP’s 77.

The TMC also won 20 of 21 bypolls held since 2021. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it won 29 seats as against the BJP’s 12.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by The Indian Express (@indianexpress)

In the first phase, 152 Assembly constituencies are going to polls across 16 districts. Besides Murshidabad, Malda, Purba, Paschim Medinipur, Paschim Bardhaman and Birbhum, these districts also include Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, and North and South Dinajpur in north Bengal and Jhargram, Purulia and Bankura in the western parts of the state.

‘Anti-incumbency’, graft

A key challenge being faced by the TMC after being at the helm for 15 years is perceived “anti-incumbency”, which has been fuelled by corruption allegations against several TMC leaders and ministers in various alleged scams related to school jobs, public distribution system, and coal and cattle smuggling, among others.

After Mamata took charge as the CM in 2021 for her third term, a number of corruption cases surfaced against TMC leaders, with central agencies like the CBI, ED and Income Tax department turning the heat on them. Senior ministers like Partha Chatterjee and Jyotipriya Mallick were arrested over the teacher recruitment scandal and ration scam. Heavyweight party leader Anubrata Mondol was held in connection with the cattle smuggling case.

The TMC camp believes that the graft cloud would not cast a shadow on the party’s poll prospects, arguing that the issue has taken a backseat after the eruption of other rows like the Election Commission (EC)’s contentious Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and subsequent deletion of lakhs of voters’ names during the adjudication exercise.

In agencies’ crosshairs

In the run-up to the polls, the ED and National Investigation Agency (NIA) have intensified their probes into various cases involving TMC leaders and candidates, including fire minister and Bidhannagar candidate Sujit Bose, food minister and Madhyamgram nominee Rathin Ghosh, Rashbehari candidate Debasish Kumar, and Bhagabanpur candidate Manab Kumar Parua.

With the agencies conducting raids and summoning some of these leaders, the TMC has found itself in a spot, with the ED also cracking down on the party’s political consultancy firm I-PAC, which has been managing its poll campaign, over the coal scam.

On April 19, the ED conducted raids at the residence of deputy commissioner (special branch), Kolkata Police, Shantanu Sinha Biswas, and later arrested a Kolkata-based businessman Joy Kamdar over an alleged land grabbing case.

Hitting back, Mamata told a poll rally in Tarakeswar: “We are keeping a record of everything.” Referring to the ED’s action against Biswas, she said: “Now, they are raiding the house of the person who takes care of my security. Does that mean that they want to kill me? If by killing me, they think they can win West Bengal, they can try that also. During the CPI(M) reign, they tried to murder me several times, and now all those from the CPI(M) have joined them (BJP).”

SIR, voter deletions

The TMC has been up in arms against the EC over various stringent measures it has taken to implement the SIR in Bengal, ranging from micro observers to “logical discrepancies” to adjudications.

The TMC has accused the EC of doing a “hachet job” on behalf of the BJP and exclude large sections of genuine voters through the SIR exercise. The BJP has rejected the TMC’s charges, claiming that the SIR has deleted “fake voters” which the latter have allegedly used to remain in power.

The adjudication process saw the deletion of 27 lakh voters. In the 2021 polls, the difference in the total number of votes polled by the TMC and the BJP was 60.62 lakh, which dipped to 42.43 lakh in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The TMC has claimed that the voter deletion row would boost its prospects. A senior party leader said, “The deleted voters’ relatives would not vote for BJP irrespective of their religion or caste. The SIR will boomerang on BJP. The manner in which CM Mamata Banerjee pleaded the SIR case for common people in the Supreme Court has made history.  Do you think people will forget that?”

Administration rejig

Soon after announcing the poll schedule on March 15, the EC started undertaking a massive reshuffle of officials and police at every level, transferring more than 500 officers so far.

On March 15 midnight itself, the EC transferred chief secretary Nandini Chakraborty and home secretary Jagdish Prasad Meena. On the next day, it removed the DGP and Kolkata Police commissioner, among other top cops.

On March 26, the poll body transferred 73 returning officers including those of Nandigram and Bhabanipur, two most high-profile seats.

While Mamata has called these transfers a “deliberate design to seize control of Bengal”, the BJP has justified it for ensuring a free and fair election.

Polarisation play

Another major hurdle for Mamata seems to be the BJP’s intense bid to polarise the state’s voters. A senior BJP leader said, “Our vote share since 2019, when we did well in Bengal, and in 2021 and 2024. when we performed moderately, has been almost the same. We understand that we will not get Muslim votes. But if we get a larger Hindu vote share, we can try and reach the magic figure of a majority (153 seats).”

The Muslim community, which accounts for about 30% population in the state, has largely backed the TMC since 2011, when Mamata brought an end to 34-year rule of the Left Front government.

For the TMC, it is a challenge to keep its Muslim support base intact, with a section of the community apparently having resentment over issues like the OBC list, Waqf law roll-out and other factors. Other Opposition parties like the Congress, ISF, AJUP and AIMIM may also cut into the TMC’s Muslim vote bank.

Bhabanipur

Mamata is also facing a test in her own Bhabanipur seat in south Kolkata, where the BJP has fielded Leader of the Opposition (LoP) Suvendu Adhikari, who is also contesting from his home turf, Nandigram, where he had defeated the former by a narrow margin in 2021.

Bhabanipur saw a total deletion of about 51,000 voters or 21% of the electorate. It has put pressure on the TMC chief, whose victory margin in the 2021 by-election from the seat was about 58,800.

In the final lap of her statewide campaign, Mamata is set to focus on Bhabanipur, which is up for voting in the second phase on April 29.

Apart from holding meetings with TMC workers, she is expected to undertake ground-level canvassing in her constituency, which she has never done in earlier polls.