In 2021, the outcome in 57 Assembly constituencies in West Bengal was decided by 8,000 votes or fewer. Five years later, these seats have emerged as a key battleground for the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, with both parties expecting minor shifts in vote share to influence the results there.
Across these seats, the average victory margin was around 8,000 votes, with 19 constituencies decided by fewer than 3,000 votes. Of the 57 constituencies, the TMC won 29 while the BJP secured 28. In the closest contests — those decided by under 3,000 votes — the BJP won 12 seats and the TMC seven.
This assumes added significance in the context of the 2021 results, where the TMC won 213 seats and the BJP 77, while the Indian Secular Front (ISF) secured one seat (the Left and Congress failed to open their accounts). With the contest expected to tighten, these narrowly decided constituencies could play a decisive role in the elections this time.
The bulk of such seats is in south Bengal, which accounts for 47 constituencies, while north Bengal has 10. A notable cluster lies in the western districts of Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur, Bankura, Purulia, and Paschim Bardhaman. Bankura and Paschim Bardhaman have six such seats each, while Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur, and Purulia have five each.
The margins in several constituencies highlight the volatility of these contests. In Bankura, the BJP won the Saltora constituency by 4,145 votes and Chatna by 7,164 votes, while the TMC secured Ranibandh by 3,939 votes. Bankura itself went to the BJP, which won by just 1,468 votes.
In neighbouring Paschim Bardhaman, the TMC won Pandabeshwar by 3,803 votes, while the BJP secured Asansol Dakshin by 4,487 votes. Kulti witnessed one of the closest contests in the state, with the BJP winning by just 679 votes.
In Paschim Medinipur, the BJP edged out the TMC in Ghatal by 966 votes, while the TMC won Narayangarh by 2,416 votes, and Dantan by 623 votes. In Purba Medinipur, Nandigram saw Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari defeat Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee by 1,956 votes, while the TMC won Mahisadal by 2,386 votes.
One of the most dramatic reversals was in Dinhata in Cooch Behar district, where the BJP’s Nisith Pramanik defeated the TMC’s Udayan Guha by just 57 votes. However, after Pramanik resigned, a bypoll later that year saw Guha defeat the BJP’s Ashok Mandal by 1.64 lakh votes
In Siuri in Birbhum district, the TMC won by 7,320 votes, while the Congress polled over 8,000 votes. BJP state vice-president Jagannath Chattopadhyay, who is also the party’s candidate from Siuri, said anti-incumbency against the state government and voter list revisions would work in his favour. “We will win more than 80% of the seats and form the government,” he said.
The 2026 contest is also expected to be more fragmented. The Congress is likely to contest alone, while the CPI(M) is entering into a seat-sharing arrangement with the ISF. A new factor is former TMC MLA Humayun Kabir’s AJUP, which has allied with the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM.
“This makes these seats even harder to predict. If even a few thousand votes shift away from either the BJP or the TMC, the impact could be decisive,” said a senior BJP leader.
TMC leaders said they are aware of the stakes. “The 57 seats with a thin margin can sway either side. We are trying our best. If there is a close contest, these seats will decide who comes to power or whether we can retain power in Bengal,” said a senior party leader.
TMC spokesperson Arup Chakraborty alleged that the Election Commission colluded with the BJP to delete voters from certain communities. ‘’In the seats with thin margins, this is more predominant. But the people are with us and we will win,” he told The Indian Express.
A shopkeeper selling party flags, ahead of the West Bengal Assembly elections, in Kolkata (PTI Photo) 
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