It is amply clear that the BJP will not be declaring a chief minister face for the Assembly elections in Rajasthan later this year, and that it has no favourites either.
If there were still any doubts, Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeated at a rally in Jaipur on Monday, “I want to tell every BJP worker that our identity and pride is only the lotus.”
While women remained the highlight of the event – other than the PM himself – former CM Vasundhara Raje was conspicuously not given an opportunity to speak. Nor did the PM mention her government and contrast it with the incumbent Congress government of CM Ashok Gehlot even once during his half-an-hour address.
Moreover, the anchoring of the event by BJP MP Diya Kumari and BJP National Secretary Alka Gurjar gave the impression that the party wants to bring in new leaders, and new women leaders at that.
While there was speculation that the BJP might change course in Rajasthan following Karnataka, where the party’s loss, for a large part, was blamed on its sidelining of state satraps, particularly former CM B S Yediyurappa, the party has again opted for the central leadership to lead the campaign in Rajasthan while sidelining arguably its biggest asset and the only leader to have a following across the state, Vasundhara Raje.
Almost as if by mutual agreement, the party has kept Raje at an arm’s length from its programmes, while she too has maintained her distance. The anti-Raje camp says that she should have contributed more to the party in the last four years and a half, while those close to her say she was never invited for the programmes she is accused of skipping.
This applies to the nine bypolls, the Jan Aakrosh Yatra last year, and more recently, the Parivartan Sankalp Yatra, among others.
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Of the nine bypolls since 2018, the Congress won seven and the BJP one, while one was bagged by the RLP backed by the BJP. Of these seats, the Congress wrested three and retained four, while the BJP and the RLP retained one each.
Similarly, the Jan Aakrosh Yatra in December last year was led by then state president Satish Poonia. Eventually, BJP Rajasthan in-charge Arun Singh said the Yatra was being suspended “keeping in mind the Covid protocol”, though one reason was believed to be poor response. This followed more flip-flops by Poonia and Singh about the Yatra, leading to confusion among party workers, virtually ending the little momentum it had gained. Raje was missing from this Yatra.
More recently, the BJP’s just concluded Parivartan Yatras did not receive the response the party was hoping for. From various places, including Jodhpur, Fatehpur, Merta, Dausa, Dholpur etc, came pictures of empty chairs. Normally, ticket aspirants would be queuing up at the events to showcase their strength.
While Raje had participated in the launch of the Yatra, from four places, she had maintained her distance thereafter.
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Those close to her refute that she is deliberately avoiding BJP events. According to a party leader, “If the state leadership doesn’t invite her or give her a schedule for an event, why would she join?” Another leader asked why she would lend her weight to such programmes. “If she does not campaign, it is ultimately the party’s loss as is evident through Jan Aakrosh yatras or the bypoll results.”
Raje was earlier not named to the BJP’s manifesto and poll management committees, with the explanation floated that the panels didn’t suit her “stature”.
While Raje has never had very warm relations with the Modi-Shah leadership, and had run-ins with the Sangh during her tenure as CM, she had made changes to appeal to them, right from temple runs to dropping aide Yunus Khan from her inner circle. However, the attempts to curry favour may have been for nought.
In the last few years, the BJP has also expelled her loyalists, Rohitash Sharma and Devi Singh Bhati, and recently, suspended former Assembly Speaker Kailash Meghwal. Late on Thursday, Bhati was re-inducted into the party, almost 24 hours after Raje had a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president J P Nadda in Jaipur.
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Calling the party divided “from top to bottom”, a bitter Meghwal says: “Vasundharaji’s supporters were singled out, removed and belittled… Now if she doesn’t agree and still attends meetings, what can I do?”
The BJP, meanwhile, has been careful not to push her to the edge, and occasionally gives the illusion that things just might turn out right for her. For example, while her detractor Gulab Chand Kataria was moved out of Rajasthan and made Assam Governor, another anti-Raje camp leader Satish Poonia was replaced by C P Joshi as state BJP chief. Her ‘bonhomie’ with Modi at an Ajmer rally, post Karnataka results, had also given her camp renewed hope.
A party leader said: “The leadership intentionally stretched the Vasundhara matter. So right now, she has no time left to play any moves, if at all… The Congress has examples like Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee and Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy who left and have done well outside the party. That has not been the case with the BJP.”
According to a party leader, “The BJP sees a win-win: if it wins, it will be in power and will still push for someone other than Raje. If it loses, the Raje era will be finally over.”
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Of the 70 MLAs the BJP has, over 40 were earlier seen as close to Raje. But some in the BJP feel they may switch sides depending on which way the wind blows.
Now all eyes are on the ticket distribution. In case her supporters are ignored, Raje, at best, may prop them up as Independents. In case it’s a close election, as it seems currently, Raje might matter more than ever.
