UP polls to youth unrest: Why BJP is rethinking its delimitation strategy

The BJP leadership is treading cautiously over delimitation as it does not want to upset the regional parties on the issue and is keen to keep the lines open to even non-NDA players so that they could come handy during the 2029 Lok Sabha elections if required, sources said.

The party is looking beyond delimitation to ensure that it has “enough friendly partners”, especially in the South, keeping in view possible “anti-incumbency” and “fatigue” factors in 2029, sources said.

While the BJP-led NDA government did not bring a fresh constitutional amendment Bill to advance women’s reservation law to 2029 – along with a delimitation Bill for expansion of the Lok Sabha from 543 MPs up to 850 – during the monsoon session of Parliament, the BJP dispensation has already mustered “numbers close to a two-thirds majority” needed to pass it, sources said. Such legislation, the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026, was defeated in the Lower House in the April special session.

“The issue is no longer about the numbers. It is about current political priorities, and the UP election is our priority now. The party has yet to assess the ground situation, so the leadership has not taken a final call on delimitation yet,” said a BJP insider.

Asserting that the Narendra Modi government is committed to push the constitutional amendment Bill linked to women quota and delimitation, senior BJP leaders said the party leadership has been “constantly in touch” with even non-NDA parties that are likely to support it.

Maintaining that the BJP leadership has been in discussion even with senior leaders of the DMK led by ex-chief minister M K Stalin, a party source said: “DMK has assured its support if the government gives a constitutional guarantee to retain Tamil Nadu’s existing share of the Lok Sabha seats (7.2%) for another 25 years. But the party wants it to be incorporated in the Bill.”

A DMK leader said, “We don’t want to be carried away, we want to see it as part of the Bill. No verbal assurance can be taken as a guarantee.”

The BJP leaders who are of the view that the government should pause its delimitation move till the UP elections’ conclusion argue that in the backdrop of youth protests over alleged irregularities in the education and exam systems as well as unemployment, the government should not do anything to “antagonise” regional players and smaller parties till the scenario for the 2029 Lok Sabha face-off is clearer. “The UP Assembly election results will give us more clarity in this regard,” said a BJP leader.

“Clearly, any legislation of this kind is bound to be tested in the court just like the EC’s SIR (Special Intensive Revision) exercise is being tested in the court now. The government, knowing the potential of such legal challenges, has to be very careful while proceeding,” said another senior BJP leader.

In a bid to boost its prospects in the 2029 battle, the BJP is keen to further strengthen its ties with the NDA allies, especially the TDP and JD(U), keep the DMK in good humour, and develop a better understanding with the BRS. Both the DMK and BRS are currently neither part of the NDA nor the Opposition INDIA bloc.

Senior BJP leader and ex-Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad pointed out that a delimitation exercise is anyway required for the implementation of the Women’s Reservation Act. “In the face of the settled legal and constitutional position, whether the (Lok Sabha) number is 800 or 543, whenever the allocation of seats for women is to be done, who will do it? The delimitation commission based upon the number of women, or overall proportion. Therefore, the whole delimitation exercise headed by a retired Supreme Court judge backed by a legal provision is salutary. Its not something new. Delimitation is a must, it’s going to happen, it should happen,” Prasad told The Indian Express.

“In 2001, the pressure of South India had worked and a freeze was done till 2026 and the year is to end soon. There is always a case for delimitation,” he added.

This was a reference to the 84th Constitutional Amendment, 2001, passed by the then Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government, which extended the freeze on the total number of the Lok Sabha and Assembly seats for each state until the first Census after 2026.

The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, passed by the Modi government in 2023, stipulates that 33% women’s quota in the Lok Sabha and the Assemblies would be implemented following delimitation on the basis of the first Census after the Act was passed.

While the population enumeration for the ongoing Census will be conducted across the country in February 2027, it has been advanced in snow-bound regions and poll-bound states like UP, Punjab and Goa.

So, unless the freeze on the allocation of seats through population-based delimitation, as done by the 84th Constitutional Amendment, is extended by Parliament, it will expire with the completion of the ongoing Census exercise.