TMC future under cloud, why Mamata has a long, bumpy road ahead

“I am now a free bird. I was on the streets once and I will be there again,” the TMC supremo declared. Clearly, she is set to get into her protest mode against the BJP now.

While the TMC’s tally in the new House has plunged to 80 (as against the BJP’s 207) from 215 in 2021 (as against the BJP’s 77), the party still has a significant number of MPs in both the Lok Sabha (29) and the Rajya Sabha (13).

However, Mamata would face a daunting challenge in her bid to rejuvenate the TMC in Bengal.

Body blow

The election saw Mamata losing her own seat in her Bhabanipur bastion in South Kolkata to her ex-aide and key BJP face Suvendu Adhikari by over 13,000 votes. Suvendu had also defeated her in 2021 from his home turf, Nandigram, by about 1,900 votes.

Ahead of the 2026 elections, the TMC had been witnessing a new system brought in by Mamata’s nephew and party national general secretary, Abhishek Banerjee, to transition from a personality-driven leadership to a performance-based model. The poll debacle may derail this process.

Several TMC ministers and party heavyweights lost the elections, including Chandrima Bhattacharya, Shashi Panja, Arup Biswas, Sujit Bose and Bratya Basu.

Party discontent

The rumblings of discontent within the TMC have started. On Wednesday, two days after the poll defeat, Mamata convened a meeting of her newly elected MLAs at her residence in Kolkata’s Kalighat area. Apart from discussing the party’s future course of action, the meeting was called to boost the MLAs’ morale.

TMC sources said that at least 10 MLAs skipped this meeting, who included Byron Biswas elected from Sagardighi. Biswas had switched to the TMC from the Congress. A senior TMC leader claimed: “Mamata Banerjee and the party leadership had asked those MLAs not to come for the meeting in view of post-poll violence happening in their constituencies.”

He, however, also said, “Our party chief is desperately trying to ensure that the party remains united after this defeat but we are not sure how many of our leaders will stand by us after six months or one year.”
Another challenge for the TMC is to deal with internal dissent which a section of party leaders have already voiced.

On Wednesday, senior TMC leader from Cooch Behar, Rabindranath Ghosh, blamed incumbent minister from the district, Udayan Guha, for the party’s rout there. “If Udayan Guha is not removed the TMC will not be able to recover in Cooch Behar. Such leaders should be expelled from the party.”

Monirul Islam, ex-party MLA from Farakka, who was denied ticket this time, criticised the functioning of the party leadership. “The way Abhishek has insulted MLAs like us, the whole party is suffering as a consequence. Even if the Trinamool survives in the future, it is not possible for him to run the party. I myself went to meet him in his Kolkata office, waited for two hours, but had to return without meeting him. He considered party MLAs as his subordinates.”

A TMC leader from Malda, Krishnendu Narayan Chowdhury, also blamed Abhishek and the I-PAC – the political consultancy firm which handled the TMC’s poll campaign – for the defeat. He said, “Party is suffering after power was transferred from Mamata Banerjee. It’s unfortunate.”

On its part, the TMC, in a statement, said: “It has come to our attention that certain leaders have recently expressed their views… We wish to clarify that any such statements made in the media or shared on social media platforms represent the personal views of the individuals concerned. It should not be interpreted as the party’s official stance unless officially communicated through its authorised channels.”

Cases, political violence

Bengal has been rocked by post-poll violence following the BJP’s victory. It took a more serious turn Wednesday night when Chandranath Rath, Suvendu’s executive assistant, was shot dead in Madhyamgram near Kolkata by motorcycle-borne assailants.

With the BJP camp pointing an accusing finger at the TMC over Rath’s killing, the latter went on the back foot, demanding a CBI inquiry into it rather than a probe by the state police, which it had always pitched for during the tenure of the Mamata government.

In its statement, the TMC “strongly condemned Rath’s murder along with the killing of three other TMC workers in incidents of post-poll violence allegedly carried out by BJP-backed miscreants over the last three days, despite the Model Code of Conduct being in force”.
There are concerns among the TMC leaders and workers that after assuming power in Bengal the BJP would “slap multiple cases” against them. The BJP has already stated that its government will bring out a white paper on the TMC’s “atrocities and corruption”.

At their Wednesday meeting, Mamata told her MLAs, “We have to make our legal teams stronger because BJP will slap more cases against us.”

A slew of senior TMC leaders have been facing various corruption cases being probed by the central agencies like the ED, CBI and Income Tax department. The TMC always rejected these cases as “politically-motivated”, accusing the Centre of using its agencies to corner them. It now fears that these cases will gain momentum. A TMC leader said, “Not only CBI or ED cases, many other cases had been pending with the state police too. Under the BJP’s administration, police will also revive those cases against us.”

Among other matters, the central agencies have kept the heat on the TMC leaders over an alleged multi-crore coal scam. The ED has even questioned Abhishek and his wife Rujira in connection with the coal case.

Decline of organisation

In this election the BJP’s vote share rose sharply to 45.8% from about 38% in 2021, while the TMC’s votes plunged to 40.8% from nearly 48%.

For a party that emerged from the grassroots mobilisation, the strength of its second-rung leaders was once its defining feature. Leaders such as Mukul Roy, Suvendu and Partha Chatterjee were not just political figures but the TMC’s organisational pillars, who built networks, managed local dynamics and ensured electoral delivery. The TMC appears to have a leadership vacuum among its ranks now.

The party organisation will be tested in the coming civic body and panchayat elections to be held in 2027 and 2028 respectively, but a senior TMC leader said its narrative might have lost steam. “Mamata Banerjee shines as an Opposition leader. But she has already played her Opposition role even as a CM. She built her narrative against the Centre, which gave us dividends. But, all those issues would fade out now,” the leader said. “Our only hope would be the new BJP government’s missteps. Only then can we hit the streets. But, now, like the Left, we will also have baggage of our multiple-term government.”