As TMC shrinks in Bengal, can a united Congress, Left fill opposition vacuum?

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Left-Congress alliance managed to lead in just 12 of the state’s 294 Assembly segments. While the Congress led in 11 segments, including the Baharampur segment under the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat and the Suti segment under the Jangipur parliamentary constituency, the CPI(M) led in just one segment – Raninagar under the Murshidabad Lok Sabha seat. The Congress had also led in the Farakka and Samserganj segments of Murshidabad district, besides the Mothabari, Sujapur, Ratua, Malatipur, Harishchandrapur and Chanchal segments in Malda district, and the Chakulia segment in North Dinajpur district.

The 2026 Assembly elections provided a partial answer to the question of how much of 2024 Lok Sabha vote share belonged to the Congress and to the CPI(M)-led Left. At the same time, the Assembly verdict has raised speculations over future political equations in the state given that the Congress won just two Assembly seats and the CPI(M) only one after contesting the polls separately.

Expressing concern over the Assembly poll results, a senior TMC leader said, “We never imagined our party would almost collapse after the election result. Both Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee are not coming out of their residence, and after Falta, we are sure our main strength – minority votes – shifted to the CPI(M) and Congress. If this continues, the CPI(M) and Congress will gain support at the grassroots level, especially the minority vote bank.”

The CPI(M), too, sees the prospect of gaining ground at the TMC’s expense. A CPI(M)’s Bengal State Committee member said, “It was the Congress that decided not to ally with us in this Assembly election. The Congress won two seats, and the CPI(M) and its ally Indian Secular Front (ISF) won one seat each. If Left, Congress and ISF had fought together in this Assembly election, we would have won at least 15 seats, but unfortunately, that did not happen. We are trying to strike an alliance in the forthcoming Rejinagar and Nandigram bypolls at least, and we are sure we will emerge as a second force if we are together.”

The CPI(M) leader also said, “In Falta, we were not only in second position, but in 58 largely minority-dominated booths, we defeated the BJP. On the other hand, during counting, we were ahead of the BJP in one round. So, in the near future, for the Nandigram and Rejinagar bypolls and the upcoming civic polls, our main target is to consolidate minority votes, reverse the Hindu vote towards us, and further corner the TMC as a declining force.”

Sujan Chakraborty, CPI(M) Central Committee member, said, “The TMC basically fled from Falta, which proved that while the TMC may make place for the BJP, they can’t stop the BJP. We will have to fight against the BJP’s bulldozer politics, division politics. People have to fight for their jobs and work and we will stand beside them, while the TMC will flee from the fight.”

Echoing the CPI(M)’s sentiments on the TMC’s decline, a senior Congress leader said, “It’s true that the TMC is now a dying force, and we will have to take up that space, especially in Malda and Murshidabad where we are organisationally strong. It is also true that those TMC leaders who are comparatively honest and can’t support the BJP’s politics will come to our party and further strengthen us. In this situation, whether we ally with the Left or not, the decision will be taken by our high command.”

State Congress spokesperson Soumya Aich Roy said, “In politics, one can’t say what will happen in the future. But it’s true that in our country, as well as in West Bengal, only the Left and Congress are continuously fighting communal forces like the BJP. The TMC made space for the BJP to corner secular forces. Now, if we have to give a solid fight against the BJP, we have to fight unitedly. Otherwise, the fight will be weak and that will help communal forces.”