TMC collapse in numbers: In 2024 LS polls, party led in 192 Assembly segments, down below 100 this time
In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP had led just 90 Assembly segments. Now, it is poised to win over 200 seats
The BJP looks set to form its first-ever government in West Bengal. When the BJP emerged as the principal Opposition in West Bengal after the 2021 Assembly elections, it marked a turning point for the party in the state. Now, the BJP is set to come to power in Bengal for the first time, ending the 15-year rule under the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
Going by the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is now in a position that had not been anticipated two years ago, when the party slid backwards in the Parliamentary elections compared to 2019.
Until 2021, the BJP’s best electoral performance in Bengal had come in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when it won 18 Parliamentary seats – four short of the TMC at 22 – among the state’s 48 total seats. In 2014, it won just 2 seats, compared to the TMC’s 34. Across every Lok Sabha election before 2014, the BJP had only won a combined 4 seats.
A comparison of parties leading Assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the 2026 Assembly elections.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the BJP won 77 seats and a 38% vote share, a significant improvement from its 2016 showing of 3 seats and 10.2% vote share. This year, the BJP is on the precipice of winning 200 seats with a 45% vote share, well clear of the TMC at 87 and 41%.
But the 2024 Lok Sabha elections had marked a reversal for the BJP. It fell to 12 seats, with the TMC climbing back to 29. The BJP’s vote share, though, remained roughly unchanged from the 2021 Assembly polls at 38.7% in 2024, while the TMC went from 48.02% in 2021 to 45.8% in 2024.
However, at the Assembly segment level in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the TMC had maintained a formidable lead over the BJP. In 2024, the TMC had led in 192 Assembly segments across Bengal (each Lok Sabha seat comprises a handful of Assembly seats). The BJP had led in 90 Assembly segments, the Congress in 11 and the CPI(M) in 1.
But the BJP has managed to flip Bengal in its favour this time, despite trailing the TMC by 92 Assembly segments in 2024. The BJP is now set to cross the 200-seat mark, reducing the TMC to below 90 seats and nearing the TMC’s 2021 tally of 215 seats.
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