The Bengal line-up: TMC bets on continuity, old guard; BJP turns to newcomers
While the TMC has relied on a greater share of candidates who lost in 2021, the BJP has dropped several candidates who lost five years ago
In the 2021 polls, the TMC had won 215 seats, while the BJP had emerged as the principal Opposition with 77 seats. The CPI(M) and Congress had failed to win any seats. (Express photo by Partha Paul) In the Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s bid for a fourth consecutive term in the West Bengal Assembly elections, the ruling party has opted for stability by renominating nearly two-thirds of its sitting MLAs and even fielding a considerable number of losing candidates from the 2021 polls. The Opposition BJP, as it looks to breach the TMC fortress to win its first even Bengal election, has been forced to field more fresh faces, particularly given that it lost a number of seats over the course of the past five years to defections and bypolls.
An analysis of the candidates of the primary challengers show that the TMC and BJP have roughly fielded two-thirds of their sitting MLAs, but while the TMC has relied on a greater share of candidates who lost in 2021, the BJP has been more ruthless towards candidates who lost five years ago.
In the 2021 polls, the TMC had won 215 seats, while the BJP had emerged as the principal Opposition with 77 seats. The CPI(M) and Congress had failed to win any seats.
The TMC is contesting 291 seats this year, leaving three seats – Kalimpong, Darjeeling and Kurseong – to ally Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha. In 2021, it had contested 290 seats.
TMC candidates
The ruling party has repeated as many as 130 sitting MLAs – 126 from the same seat as 2021 and another 16 from new seats this time. In 2021, 69 of these MLAs had won their seats decisively, with more than 50% of the vote share, while another 59 had secured between 40% and 50%. Together, these candidates had won in 2021 by an average margin of 31,030 votes.
However, the TMC has also nominated 20 candidates who lost in 2021 – while 12 runners-up have been fielded from the same seat as five years ago, 8 have been shifted to new seats. Of these 20 candidates, 15 had secured vote shares between 40% and 50%. Collectively, these candidates had lost in 2021 by 10,345 votes, a narrow enough margin for the TMC to consider re-nominating them.
However, as many as 85 sitting MLAs have been dropped, as have another 55 losing candidates from 2021. It’s worth noting that in many of these seats, the TMC later notched wins via bypolls. The TMC won at least 26 seats through bypolls, some necessitated by defections, others by elevations to the Lok Sabha or deaths. As many as 21 of these bypoll winners have been nominated again, a majority of them were former BJP MLAs who resigned to join the TMC later. While 4 bypoll winners, including BJP turncoats, have been dropped, former BJP two-time MP and ex-Union Minister of State Babul Supriyo quit as an MLA in 2026 ahead of the Bengal Assembly polls and was elected to the Rajya Sabha by the TMC.
Of the dropped sitting MLAs, 44 had won their seats with a vote share of 50% or higher. Together, the dropped MLAs had won by an average margin of 33,917 votes. Meanwhile, the losing candidates from 2021 who have been dropped this time had all finished as the runners-up, losing by an average margin of 15,440 votes.
Many of the TMC’s changes in candidates are concentrated in districts like North 24 Parganas, Nadia, Bankura, Hooghly and Murshidabad. North 24 Parganas and Nadia, for instance, are home to a sizeable Matua population, which has in recent years veered towards the BJP. In Bankura, the BJP had notched a strong performance in both the 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, likely prompting a new strategy from the TMC.
BJP candidates
The BJP is contesting all 294 seats in West Bengal, up from 293 in 2021 when it had allied with the All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party.
Among its 294 candidates are 75 who had been fielded in 2021 too, including 45 sitting MLAs from the same seat as five years ago and another 4 winners who have been shifted to new seats this time. Of the re-nominated sitting MLAs, 11 had secured more than 50% of the vote share in 2021, and 38 between 40% and 50%. Together, these sitting MLAs had won their seats in 2021 by an average margin of 13,013 votes.
However, the BJP has also re-nominated 40 losing candidates from 2021 – 30 from the same seat as last time, and 10 from new seats. Collectively, these re-nominated losing candidates had fallen short in 2021 by an average margin of 26,021 votes.
But the BJP has also dropped as many as 204 candidates from 2021, including 29 sitting MLAs and 175 who lost. Many of its MLAs had defected to the TMC over the past five years, while some had won Lok Sabha elections following which the BJP lost their seats in bypolls. Just 1 TMC MLA, however, had quit to join the BJP.
Of the 29 sitting MLAs who have been dropped, 7 had secured vote shares above 50%. The dropped MLAs had won their seats in 2021 by an average margin of 15,278 votes. But across the 175 losing candidates who have been dropped, including 51 who had secured between 40% and 50% of the vote share in 2021, the average margin of defeat was 33,366 votes.
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