If the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and the 2021 Assembly polls, are anything to go by, the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu will go into the coming Assembly elections in the state with an edge even as the entry of actor-politician Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) makes the contest a bit more complicated for the state’s traditionally dominant parties.
Since the last Assembly elections in 2021, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are the most recent electoral test faced by parties in Tamil Nadu and provide an indication of where the parties stand going into the coming elections, which will be held on April 23.
In the 2024 elections to Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats, the INDIA bloc alliance led by the ruling DMK in the state pulled off a remarkable sweep for the first time since 2004, improving on its 2019 performance when it had won all but one parliamentary constituency.
While the DMK-led alliance’s strong performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was followed by a resounding win in the 2021 Assembly polls with 153 seats in the 234-member House, ending the AIADMK’s decade-long run in power, the result of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has put the INDIA bloc in an even stronger position for the 2026 Assembly contest.
An analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha results shows that the DMK alliance led in an overwhelming 223 Assembly segments (each parliamentary constituency comprises several Assembly seats or segments), putting it well over the Assembly’s majority mark of 118 seats. The Opposition AIADMK led in 8 Assembly segments, and its only ally to lead in any segments was the Anbumani Ramadoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) in 3 segments.
Lok Sabha 2024 results at Assembly segment level in Tamil Nadu
The DMK was by far the most dominant party in 2024, leading in 125 Assembly segments on the back of winning all 22 Lok Sabha seats it contested. The Congress led in 52 Assembly segments, having won 9 Lok Sabha seats as the second-largest constituent of the INDIA bloc in Tamil Nadu. Other allies such as the CPI, the CPI(M), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VKC), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) together led in 46 Assembly segments, with wins in the remaining 8 Lok Sabha seats.
Vote shares and margins
In terms of the overall vote shares, the DMK’s 26.93% against the AIADMK’s 20.46% suggest a much closer contest than the seat tallies, an Assembly segment level analysis of vote shares and margins shows the extent of the DMK’s dominance.
Of the state’s 234 Assembly segments, parties secured more than 50% of the vote share in 82 segments. While the DMK received more than 50% of the vote share in 52 segments, the AIADMK managed the same in just 1 segment. The feat was also achieved by the Congress in 15 segments and the other DMK allies in 14 segments.
Moreover, even in the 26 segments where the leading party was decided by a margin under 10,000 votes, the DMK and its allies led in 19 segments and the AIADMK in just 7 segments, meaning even the close contests favoured the ruling alliance in the 2024 polls.
In fact, the AIADMK’s 2024 showing marked a significant backward slide from its 2021 Assembly poll performance, when it won 66 seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in 62 of these segments, the AIADMK secured fewer votes than a rival party, losing out to the DMK in 36 segments, Congress in 9, Left parties in 11, and other allies in 5. In contrast, the AIADMK managed to wrest control of only 4 segments in 2024 that the DMK had won in 2021. AIADMK allies BJP and PMK did not fare any better; they similarly ceded ground to a rival party in a total 7 segments they had won in 2021.
As it stands, going by the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the DMK-led ruling alliance is in pole position. However, the introduction of actor-politician Vijay and the TVK into the electoral fray could complicate matters, though it remains to be seen which parties’ vote shares the TVK may eat into, if it manages to leave an impact at all in its first poll outing.
Since the last Assembly elections in 2021, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are the most recent electoral test faced by parties in Tamil Nadu and provide an indication of where the parties stand going into the coming elections, which will be held on April 23. (File image) 
Lok Sabha 2024 results at Assembly segment level in Tamil Nadu
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