Can Thalapathy Vijay really storm Fort St. George? One Tamil Nadu exit poll gives him the spotlight
Many other surveys continue to place DMK as likelier winner, predicting Vijay’s TVK winning anywhere between zero to 40 seats in 234-member Assembly
What Madurai Central could demonstrate is something with implications that travel well beyond Tamil Nadu. (PTI Photo) Tamil Nadu’s election season has acquired an unlikely new genre: the cinematic exit poll.
The most dramatic poll came from NDTV-Axis My India, which projected actor-turned-politician Vijay’s fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) at 98 to 120 seats, enough to place the newcomer within striking distance of power in the 234-member Assembly. It also gave TVK roughly 35% vote share, level with the ruling DMK alliance, while placing the AIADMK-BJP combine at 23%.
The numbers electrified television studios. They also raised eyebrows.
Axis My India’s chairman, Pradeep Gupta, when pressed on air about why his poll alone showed such a surge for TVK, conceded the tally could “come down to 70” seats, a notable caveat for a projection whose upper bound was 120.
If TVK’s estimated 35% vote share as per the Axis My India poll was overstated by even 7 percentage points, and those votes were to be spread between the two established Dravidian camps, the map changes quickly. The DMK alliance would rise to around 38.5%, while the AIADMK-led bloc could move toward 26.5%, leaving TVK near 28%.
In Tamil Nadu’s first-past-the-post system, such shifts are often worth dozens of seats. A party leading by 10 percentage points statewide can convert vote share into a commanding majority, particularly when opponents divide the anti-incumbent vote.
That is why many other surveys, less spectacular but more conventional, continue to place the DMK as the likelier winner. They have predicted Vijay’s TVK winning anywhere between zero to 40 seats.
Vijay may still achieve what once seemed improbable: opening TVK’s account, perhaps even entering double digits in vote share and seats. But in Tamil Nadu politics, as in cinema, opening weekend numbers do not always indicate final box office figures.
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