Tamil Nadu exit polls: No wave, but edge to DMK; TVK emerges as uncertain variable
Final result will depend on how close contests break across regions, especially western Tamil Nadu, Chennai and its adjoining urban belt, and seats where TVK may have cut into the vote bases of the two major Dravidian parties
The Poll of Polls placed the DMK at 112–129 seats, the AIADMK at 86–103, TVK at 13–19 and others at 1–5. (File Photos) Most exit polls released on Wednesday evening predicted an edge for the ruling DMK-led alliance, while two polls projected an AIADMK comeback. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as the most uncertain variable in the contest, with one poll even predicting that the party may cross the halfway mark of 118 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly.
The Poll of Polls placed the DMK at 112–129 seats, the AIADMK at 86–103, TVK at 13–19 and others at 1–5, suggesting a close contest in which the ruling alliance may still have a route to majority, but without the sweep projected by some individual surveys.
The widest pro-DMK projection came from Praja Poll, which gave the ruling side 148–168 seats and the AIADMK 61–81. It gave no seats to TVK and 1–9 to others.
P-Marq projected a DMK win with 125–145 seats, the AIADMK at 65–85, TVK at 16–26 and others at 1–6.
Matrize placed the DMK just above the majority mark, at 122–132 seats, with the AIADMK at 87–100, TVK at 10–12 and others at 0–6. Peoples Pulse also projected a DMK advantage, giving it 125–145 seats, against 65–80 for the AIADMK, 18–24 for TVK and 2–6 for others.
Peoples Insight gave the DMK 120–140 seats, the AIADMK 60–70, and TVK a striking 30–40 seats — the strongest projection for Vijay’s new party among the surveys released Wednesday. Others were projected at 0–4.
But two exit polls pointed in the opposite direction. JVC Exit Poll projected a clear AIADMK victory, giving the opposition party 128–147 seats, the DMK 75–95, TVK 8–15 and no seats to others. Vote Vibe also placed the AIADMK ahead, with 114–124 seats, against 103–113 for the DMK, 4–10 for TVK and none for others.
However, the Axis My India exit poll predicted Vijay’s TVK getting between 98 and 120 seats, more than the DMK’s 92-110 and AIADMK’s 22-32.
Together, the numbers indicate three broad possibilities. One, the DMK may have held on despite anti-incumbency and a more crowded field. Two, the AIADMK may have performed far better than expected, especially if the JVC and Vote Vibe trends are closer to the final outcome. Three, TVK’s real impact remains the election’s largest unknown: its projections range from zero seats to 120, showing deep uncertainty over whether Vijay’s crowds and youth appeal have translated into constituency-level victories.
The final result will depend on how close contests break across regions, especially western Tamil Nadu, Chennai and its adjoining urban belt, and seats where TVK may have cut into the vote bases of the two major Dravidian parties. For now, the exit polls suggest not a single clear wave, but a tense three-cornered election whose verdict may be decided in the margins.
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