After voters turned out in force, eyes on what next: Does DMK have an edge?
No leader drew more visible public excitement on Thursday morning than Vijay. At Neelangarai, where he voted, the police struggled to control crowds as supporters surged toward the booth.
What Madurai Central could demonstrate is something with implications that travel well beyond Tamil Nadu. (PTI Photo) The signs of a record turnout in Tamil Nadu were there early on Thursday amid the long queues early in the morning as parties tried to mobilise voters and the police stood guard outside schools serving as polling booths. Beyond the routine scenes during the day lay the spark that actor-politician Vijay had introduced in the contest in which the ruling DMK enjoyed an edge based on incumbency, welfare delivery, a broad alliance, and the advantages of being in power.
The AIADMK, led by Edappadi K Palaniswami, entered polling day with the hope that anti-incumbency and alliance arithmetic would narrow that advantage. However, as voting gathered pace through the morning, much of the conversation revolved around Vijay, with the question revolving around what impact the TVK chief might have and whether the turnout heralds the arrival of something Tamil Nadu has not seen in years: a third force capable of transforming the political landscape dominated by the two Dravidian majors.
No leader drew more visible public excitement on Thursday morning than Vijay. At Neelangarai, where he voted, the police struggled to control crowds as supporters surged toward the booth. Media access was restricted, voters complained of delays, and for a few minutes, polling resembled the audio launch of a film.
Similar scenes followed at booths visited by two other superstars, Ajith and Rajinikanth.
But Vijay’s real significance lies beyond celebrity. Across party camps, he is increasingly described as the first major alternative face in decades whose emotional connection is with younger voters. Tamil Nadu has seen challengers before — MGR, Jayalalithaa, Vaiko, Vijayakanth, Kamal Haasan and others. But insiders across camps say Vijay may be the first to command curiosity among a large section of the youth, particularly among first-time voters, urban voters, and those not aligned to any party.
That is why routine sights — buses full of migrant workers returning home, young people arriving from Bengaluru or Chennai suburbs to vote, people gathering in clusters — have all been interpreted on social media as evidence of a wave for Vijay.
The central question among voters on Thursday was whether the TVK cuts into votes and who it will affect the most if it does. The AIADMK believes every extra vote Vijay gains beyond the mid-teen range hurts the DMK more, especially among younger and floating voters. The DMK believes the reverse and that TVK will eat into the anti-DMK sentiment that would otherwise consolidate behind the AIADMK. Both may be right, depending on the constituency.
That is why Perambur, Tiruchi East, Anna Nagar, Villivakkam, Tiruvottiyur and Velachery in Chennai, Tiruchengode, Gobichettipalayam, Nanguneri, and parts of Tirunelveli are all being watched closely.
In the TVK, some leaders insist that crossing 25 or 30% vote share will not be a shock. The DMK and the AIADMK dismiss that, with most assessments in the two major camps placing the TVK closer to the high teens or around 20℅, with second-place finishes possible in 20 to 30 constituencies and perhaps three to four wins. Some state intelligence estimates, factoring in the unusually loud enthusiasm around Vijay, suggest that if the surge proves real, TVK could touch 20% and convert that into seven or eight seats. The DMK may still emerge with a comfortable mandate if most popular estimates come true.
The AIADMK may recover more sharply than expected, and the BJP may notch symbolic gains in pockets. But even if Vijay wins only a handful of seats, a substantial vote share could alter the state’s Opposition map.
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