AIADMK stares at split, rebel bloc of 30 pro-Vijay MLAs turns on EPS

At the centre of the crisis is the question of whether AIADMK should support Vijay’s newly formed TVK government, which crossed the majority mark Saturday after intense post-poll negotiations and support from allies.

According to reliable sources in AIADMK, at least 30 MLAs and several senior functionaries are now aligned with a rebel bloc led by former ministers S P Velumani, C Vijayabaskar and senior leader C Ve Shanmugham. The group is pushing for the party to formally back the TVK and join the government. EPS, however, remains unwilling to do so. The AIADMK won 47 seats in the Assembly elections.

Sources in the rebel camp said the numbers have already left EPS politically weakened within the party. “He (EPS) may still be AIADMK general secretary officially, but the majority of power centres inside the party are no longer with him,” said a senior leader familiar with the negotiations. The dissident faction is now understood to be preparing for a formal break if negotiations fail. Sources said several leaders in the camp believe they could align with TVK within a week.

The crisis gripping the AIADMK came to surface Monday when the party MLAs arrived at the Assembly on the opening day of the new House in separate groups. A larger bloc of AIADMK MLAs is rallying behind Shanmugam, while a smaller group remains with EPS.

Seventeen MLAs have submitted a letter to the Assembly Secretary backing EPS as the AIADMK Legislature Party leader, while around 30 MLAs from the Shanmugam faction have done the same favouring Velumani as their floor leader.

The immediate trigger for the escalation came after the collapse of last week’s alleged DMK-AIADMK power-sharing discussions – a development that had briefly united factions within AIADMK. According to sources, the proposed arrangement involved an AIADMK-led coalition government backed by all smaller allies from the DMK and AIADMK alliances, with outside support from the DMK and EPS projected as Chief Minister. But the plan reportedly unravelled after disagreements over leadership and power-sharing formulas.

Sources said Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) leader Thol Thirumavalavan, who considered the idea, objected to EPS becoming CM. When Thirumavalavan’s own name was floated in discussions, EPS was unwilling to accept the proposal.

Once the idea collapsed and TVK demonstrated majority support on Saturday, with VCK’s promise of support, old fault lines inside AIADMK resurfaced rapidly.

Party insiders said EPS spent Sunday meeting district secretaries in an effort to consolidate control. But even there, the signals were troubling for him. More than half the district secretaries are believed to be leaning toward Velumani, the influential Coimbatore-based leader long considered one of EPS’s closest organisational and financial pillars.

“There is now a serious question inside the party about how many people around EPS are actually loyal to him,” said a former AIADMK minister. The rebel camp has reportedly placed two demands before EPS: that he step down as general secretary and allow the party to negotiate politically with TVK.

Ironically, tensions are also emerging within the dissident bloc itself over succession. Sources said there is no consensus yet on whether Velumani or Shanmugham should eventually take charge of the party if EPS is removed. Even among AIADMK cadres, doubts persist over whether the rebel leadership represents genuine renewal or merely a rearrangement of existing power structures.

“People are asking: if they take over, how different are they from the current leadership?” said a senior functionary from western Tamil Nadu. Shanmugham’s importance within the rebellion also reflects the caste arithmetic behind the churn. He belongs to the Vanniyar community, one of Tamil Nadu’s largest OBC blocs. Northern Tamil Nadu, where Vanniyar influence remains strong, was also among the few regions where the Vijay wave faced visible resistance, with many AIADMK and PMK candidates managing victories.

Sources in TVK said discussions on cabinet allocation are already underway informally. According to them, one or two berths may go to VCK, two to Congress, while AIADMK could receive anywhere between eight and twelve ministries, depending on the number of MLAs eventually joining the coalition.

The BJP’s role in the unfolding crisis continues to be discussed intensely in AIADMK circles. Senior AIADMK leaders say that Delhi’s relationship with EPS deteriorated after he allegedly insulted senior BJP leadership during alliance discussions ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Rebels also accuse EPS of politically undermining the BJP in the 2026 Assembly polls by allocating the party 27 largely unwinnable seats.

For sections within the AIADMK, the argument has now become bluntly practical: after five years in opposition and repeated defeats, remaining outside government may weaken the party further as Vijay consolidates power.