Slight dip in CPM’s Kannur strongholds, uptick in urban Thiruvananthapuram: What Kerala’s voter turnout numbers show

While the Ranni constituency in Pathanamthitta district recorded the lowest turnout at 68.98%, it did see an improvement from 2021, when 65.84% of the eligible voters turned up. The constituency that recorded the highest turnout this time was Kunnamangalam, with 84.83%.

Malappuram district, the stronghold of Congress ally Indian Union Muslim League, saw its highest turnout since the 2011 Assembly election. Eight constituencies in the district recorded polling above 80%.

Ernakulam district also saw eight of its 14 seats recording above 80% polling. The increase was tangible in the urban constituencies of the district, such as Thrikkakara, Ernakulam, Thripunithura, Kunnathunadu and Kochi.

The Thiruvananthapuram urban area, which has historically been known for lower voter turnout, also saw a noticeable increase in polling this time. The five seats in this area are high-stakes battles for the BJP, which is hoping to win at least some of them. At Nemom, where BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar is a candidate, the polling percentage has gone up from 71.33% in 2021 to 80.62%. At Kattakkada, the number increased to 80.72% from 74.05% in 2021. A sharp increase was also seen in Kazhakootam, Vattiyoorkavu and Thiruvananthapuram Central seats.

At the same time, several CPI(M) strongholds in Kannur district, where Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and a battery of leaders are in the fray, have seen a slight fall in turnout. Payyannur, Kalyasseri, Taliparamba, Dharmadam and Azhikode, all of which are currently held by the CPI(M), have recorded decreased polling. Among these, Taliparamba and Payyannur are two seats where the CPI(M) is being challenged by rebels backed by the Congress, where the Opposition UDF alliance has been trying to take advantage of unrest within the ruling LDF.

One reason for the dip in polling in Kannur could be the low turnout of expat voters due to the conflict in West Asia. Kannur has the highest number of expat voters.

Historically, the turnout figures have not necessarily pointed towards an advantage for any party in Kerala. In 1991, the state recorded 73.42% polling, and the Congress came to power with 90 seats. In 1996, the Left returned to power with 80 seats when the polling decreased to 71.16%. In 2001, the Congress won 99 of the 140 seats, with the state recording 72.47%. In 2006, the LDF won 92 seats when the voter turnout was 72.08%. In 2011, the Congress came back with the state polling figures at 75.26%. In 2016, the current LDF regime came to power with 91 seats, with 77.53% of total voters going to the booths. In 2021, the LDF retained the power with 99 seats, even as polling went down to 76%.

On Friday, LDF convener T P Ramakrishnan said that anti-incumbency would not be a factor in this election. “The LDF will remain in power. The UDF was spreading lies, and they will not get minority votes. People have voted for development and welfare,” he said.

On the other hand, Opposition Leader V D Satheesan said the UDF would come to power with 100-plus seats in the 140-seat Assembly. “We are going to have a clean sweep in five districts. This election marked the best show by UDF workers and leaders. We have exposed the CPI(M)-BJP deal. We believe that ordinary workers of the parties have voted against that deal. The increase in polling has further brightened our confidence,” he said.