Devendra Fadnavis’ balancing act amid NCP drama, delimitation Bill headcount

But Fadnavis, a seasoned politician, knows he is at the helm of a coalition government comprising three parties. There is also the Sharad Pawar factor to keep in mind – the founder of the NCP, who now leads the NCP (SP), is adept at springing surprises. So, for now, the BJP is watching closely while maintaining it has no role to play in the NCP drama.

NCP leader Sunil Tatkare and Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar. (Source: Express Archives)

The NCP confusion

Separate meetings of Fadnavis with leaders of the two factions of the NCP on Tuesday night have sparked speculation. While both sides maintain that the meetings related to mundane constituency matters, political insiders suspect a surprise is in the works. Meanwhile, NCP president and Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar, it is learned, is upset that her party leaders, Sunil Tatkare and Praful Patel, did not keep her in the loop about the meeting with Fadnavis.

The NCP split in 2023 after a rebellion led by late Ajit Pawar, Maharashtra’s former Deputy Chief Minister and Sharad Pawar’s nephew. When Ajit Pawar died in a plane crash in January, political insiders claimed that a plan to reunite the NCP was in the works. This was never confirmed until yesterday when Tatkare said the two factions had “discussed a merger when Ajit Pawar was alive” and that the talks stopped after his tragic death.

The NCP led by Sunetra Pawar now appears fractured, with one camp led by her and sons Jay and Parth, and the other by Tatkare and Patel. A section of MLAs of both factions feel that a merger could energise the NCP, but none has raised this with the leadership, sources said.

NCP president and Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis

The BJP’s play

The BJP is going all out to ensure a two-thirds majority in Parliament to take the Constitutional amendment Bill past the post. In Maharashtra, six MPs quit the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and joined the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena last month, boosting the NDA numbers.

The NCP (SP) has eight Lok Sabha MPs, and the BJP would benefit if they add to the NDA tally as the Narendra Modi government preps to bring the contentious legislation to Parliament. BJP leaders have repeatedly said the Bill would not be tabled till the government is sure of its passage. The ruling party’s previous attempt to get the Bill to clear Parliament had failed in the last session.

BJP spokesperson Vishwas Pathak said, “Our party’s approach is to reach out and convince leaders across the political spectrum to come forward and support the women’s reservation and delimitation Bill. Our alliance partners, Shiv Sena, led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, and NCP, led by Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar, are with us on this issue. We are seeking support from others in the opposition, including NCP(SP).”

Asked about the NCP tussle, he said, “We are neutral. If any merger or defection takes place from NCP(SP), it will have to be through NCP. When Shiv Sena (UBT) members wanted to switch sides, they joined Shinde-led Shiv Sena.” The BJP, he indicated, is not going to encourage entrants from regional forces into the organisation.

A reunion of NCP and NCP (SP) is seen as far-fetched at this point, given the tussle between multiple camps. The BJP, therefore, is looking to strike a balance to accomplish the objective at the Centre without unsettling state equations.

During his recent visit to Delhi, Fadnavis said, “Our doors are not open to new entrants in NDA.” Political strategists within the party interpreted this as a message that the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP coalition in the state would remain unaltered.

Ajay Pawar’s son Parth Pawar

Both NCP factions battling divisions

BJP insiders said that while the party is open to issue-based support from NCP(SP) on key legislation, how this manifests politically for the party’s two factions and the INDIA bloc will have to be watched, as nobody can take Pawar senior for granted.

BJP leaders say that while several leaders from NCP (SP) are known to be eager to join the ruling Mahayuti, apparently for better access to development funds, it is not known what Fadnavis’ meeting with Jayant Patil was about. “What exactly transpired remains known to just the two leaders,” a BJP leader said. Patil, for his part, said he met the Chief Minister to discuss matters related to his constituency.

Pawar’s daughter and NCP(SP) MP Supriya Sule has, meanwhile, ruled out joining the NDA. “Our stand was we would be willing to consider the proposed legislation on delimitation with 50 per cent state-wise seat increase provided they share the details and process,” she said, adding that this does not mean NCP(SP) is leaving the INDIA bloc and switching to the NDA.

Both factions of the NCP are battling internal divisions. In the Sunetra Pawar camp, senior leaders Tatkare and Patel are trying to reassert their standing in the party after being sidelined. And within NCP(SP), a section wants to align with the NDA and share power, but those like Rohit Pawar, Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew and MLA, want to be in the opposition.

Sharad Pawar is known to spring surprises in politics. File

Will Sharad Pawar spring a surprise?

A close confidante of Sharad Pawar, who has worked with him for decades, says, “Decoding Sharad Pawar’s strategy is almost impossible. What he does, when and why is known only to him.”

“It can be stated with certainty that when it comes to taking any position on matters related to development or legislation, he can override political leanings. Issue-based support to government cutting across ideological barriers will not be surprising,” the senior leader said.

There are instances when Pawar has taken decisions that surprised many. In 2014, BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the Maharashtra polls, winning 122 seats. But it failed to achieve the magic number of 145 in the 288-seat Assembly.

The BJP and Shiv Sena had contested the 2014 polls separately after they could not reach an agreement over seat-sharing. Following the polls, Pawar’s NCP, then undivided, offered unconditional support to the BJP, and Fadnavis won the trust vote. Later, the Shiv Sena and BJP came together. Pawar also admitted that his unconditional support to the BJP was a ploy to isolate the Sena.

After the terror attack in Pahalgam last year, the INDIA bloc took a collective decision to demand a special Parliament session to discuss the terror attack and Operation Sindoor. The NCP(SP), however, was cautious. Pawar argued that on issues of national security, parties should stand together, setting politics aside. Later, NCP (SP) working president Sule joined one of the Centre’s delegations to foreign countries as part of the government’s global outreach on the terror attack and Operation Sindoor.

A senior Congress leader summed it up, “We don’t suspect Pawar’s secular commitment. But his politics often unsettles us.” He recalled how Pawar’s stance on the demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe into the Hindenburg report on the Adani Group took the steam out of the Congress campaign.

Not just allies, Pawar’s politics has also kept the BJP on the edge. Top BJP leaders point out how the veteran played a masterstroke after the 2019 Assembly polls by forging an alliance of Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena and propping up Thackeray as Chief Minister. The aim was to isolate BJP. And this came just five years after his unconditional support to Fadnavis after the 2014 election.

Despite his unpredictability, Pawar has maintained cordial relations with central BJP leaders over the years, be it former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee or Prime Minister Narendra Modi.