Reading UP SIR numbers: BJP bastions hit harder than SP’s Yadav family strongholds

An analysis of the percentage fall in electors recorded in five prominent seats of the BJP, five of the Samajwadi Party, and two of the Congress, shows that the BJP’s five seats recorded an average fall of 15.28%, the SP’s five seats recorded 12.06%, while the Congress’s two constituencies recorded a 12.1% average decrease.

In the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency, represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since 2014 and won by BJP founding member Murli Manohar Joshi in 2009, the percentage fall across its five Assembly segments was 15.63%.

Within the Varanasi parliamentary seat, the Varanasi Cantonment Assembly segment, for instance, recorded a high 19.87% decrease. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had a hefty lead of 58,277 votes in this segment. “Varanasi Cantonment is an urban area where the population of migrant voters was big. A significant number of voters shifted their votes to their home villages during SIR. But the actual impact will be seen in the analysis of the booth-wise voter list, which is yet to begin,” said a BJP leader.

The other four prominent Lok Sabha seats held by the BJP that were analysed are: Lucknow, represented by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh; Maharajganj, which is the seat of Union MoS and BJP state president Pankaj Chaudhary; Gorakhpur, which is the home turf of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath; and Bansgaon, which is the seat of Union MoS Kamlesh Paswan. While Chaudhary is a seven-term MP from Maharajganj, Paswan is a four-term MP from Bansgaon.

Lucknow Lok Sabha constituency recorded an average fall of 28.73% electors across five assembly segments, with the highest 34.18% net deletion in Lucknow Cantonment, which also topped in the state in percentage net deletions. Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak is a BJP MLA from this seat. Won by the BJP in nine consecutive polls, Lucknow is considered a party bastion. It has a significant population of upper caste and Shia Muslim voters.

The average net deletions was 12.32% in Bansgaon, 10.04% in Maharajganj, and 9.71% in Gorakhpur.

Across five Assembly segments of Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s Gorakhpur Urban Assembly segment recorded the lowest net percentage deletion of 6.88%. While Adityanath was a five-term MP from Gorakhpur, the seat is currently held by actor-turned-politician Ravi Kishan.

In SP’s Yadav family’s seats—while party chief Akhilesh Yadav represents Kannauj, his wife Dimple is the Mainpuri MP, his cousins Dharmendra Yadav, Akshay Yadav, and Aditya Yadav represent Azamgarh, Firozabad and Badaun, respectively.  These seats are dominated by Yadav voters with significant Muslim populations.

While the average net percentage deletions in these five seats was 12.06%, the highest 16.65% average net deletions were recorded in Badaun, followed by Kannauj, where the figure was 14.47%. Kannauj’s Chhibramau Assembly segment that the BJP won in the 2022 Assembly polls by a slim margin of 1,111 votes, saw a 20.6% net deletion of electors. The SP has won the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat six times since 1999.

Of the 25 Assembly segments in the SP’s five Lok Sabha seats, the party had won 15, and the BJP won 10 in 2022.

SP spokesperson Sudhir Panwar said fewer average deletions in the party’s strongholds in comparison to the BJP’s bastions indicate that Muslims and Yadav voters had retained their names in the electoral roll by responding to notices and producing documents to prove their eligibility.

“SP workers remained alert and raised objections whenever they suspected any discrepancy in SIR. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s instructions to set up temporary detention centres for illegal immigrants created a panic among Muslim voters who made every effort to retain their names in the electoral roll. But this is too early to say which party’s votes are deleted more. SP has started booth-wise analysis of the final roll,” he said.

In the Congress strongholds of Rae Bareli and Amethi, won by Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and close Gandhi family aide Kishori Lal, respectively, in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, the average net deletions stood at 12.1%, marginally higher than the Yadav family’s seats (12.06%).

Amethi recorded 12.97% while Rae Bareli saw 11.24% net deletions. Of these 10 Assembly seats, SP won six and the BJP won four in 2022 as the Congress drew a blank in both the family turfs.

In Rae Bareli, the highest percentage of net deletions was 14.76% in the Rae Bareli Assembly segment, which was the only one the BJP won in Rae Bareli in 2022. The SP had won the other four segments.