As Rajasthan wraps up 2024 Lok Sabha elections with voting for 13 seats on Friday, the Congress seems confident of ending its 10-year dry run in the state. In 2014 and 2019, the BJP and the NDA led by it, respectively, won all the 25 seats in Rajasthan.
In the two phases of voting in the state, the BJP seemed to be facing a challenge in at least half the seats each, if not entirely from the Congress. Unlike the last two times when voting was largely in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as well as the BJP’s core issues of nationalism and Ram Temple etc, this time, caste politics seemed to weigh heavily on voters in a few seats.
The key constituencies in the second phase are Barmer-Jaisalmer, Banswara, Jalore, Kota, Jodhpur and Tonk.
Overall, the Congress is optimistic as it has nothing to lose, while BJP leaders seem a bit apprehensive given the target set by Modi of “400 paar (beyond 400)” seats across the country. It may not be a coincidence that both of Modi’s polarising speeches where he attacked the Congress while referring to Muslims came in Rajasthan – Banswara and Tonk.
The first phase’s drop in polling is believed to have added to BJP worries, though in the last leg, the BJP’s campaign that the Congress’s social justice plank was another means to “take people’s money” at least left the Opposition rattled.
The Congress might also fall short on the organisation front compared to the BJP, while its course to alliances was rocky. For example, while it is officially supporting the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) in Banswara, the Congress also has a candidate in the fray who did not withdraw. Meanwhile, owing to alleged delay from the Congress in making up its mind, the BAP has fielded candidates in Chittorgarh and Udaipur where the Congress is contesting.
How Rajasthan voted in the past.
In hindsight, the Congress might end up feeling sorry for its failure to insist that its top leaders such as Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot and Govind Singh Dotasra contest – they reportedly did not want to take risks. Their presence could have energised the workers.
The Congress’s uncertainty about Rajasthan was also reflected in the fact that none of its top leaders – Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka – held a rally in the state in the second phase. In the first phase though, Sonia Gandhi also made an appearance; for her only rally in the Lok Sabha elections so far.
Of the 13 contests, the BJP is facing the most heat in Barmer, where incumbent Union minister Kailash Choudhary is pitted against Independent Ravindra Bhati and the Congress’s Ummeda Ram Beniwal. Rajputs and some other groups are backing Bhati while Jats seem to be rallying behind Beniwal and Choudhary, with Beniwal having the upper hand.
The Congress has high stakes in Jalore, where its former CM Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav is fighting against Lumbaram Choudhary of the BJP. Gehlot Senior has been aggressively campaigning for Vaibhav, who lost in 2019, with daughter-in-law Himanshi pitching in to fight back the tag of “outsider”.
In Jodhpur, Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the BJP’s strongest Rajput face from Rajasthan now, is contesting against Karan Singh Uchiyarda, also from the community. Much hence depends on how the other castes such as Jats and Bishnois vote. Shekhawat is also facing questions over drinking water problems in rural parts of the constituency despite him being the Union Jal Shakti Minister.
In Kota, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla is facing anti-incumbency and accusations of being “inaccessible”, while BJP rebel-turned-Congress candidate Prahlad Gunjal is posing a challenge as a dabangg (fearless). Birla benefits from his strong hold over the region, the party’s good management, as well as the impression that he is close to PM Modi, by virtue of his position.
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur is witnessing a stiff contest between sitting BJP MP Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria and the Congress’s Harish Chandra Meena, who is the sitting MLA from Deoli Uniara Assembly and seen as close to Pilot, the MLA from Tonk. With the seat having a substantial number of Muslims, the BJP is hoping that the Hindus will continue to stick to the party, and that PM Modi’s speech would have filled any gaps.
BJP state president C P Joshi looks comfortably placed in Chittorgarh, as does P P Chaudhary in Pali and Dushyant Singh in Jhalawar Baran, the stronghold of his family from where his mother and former CM Vasundhara Raje is also an MLA. In Mewar’s Udaipur and Rajsamand, the BJP is banking on the RSS and its strong cadre to see it through.
Like in some other seats in the state, it is Jat vs Jat in Ajmer. However, unlike other seats where they are backing Congress candidates, the Jats here seem to be leaning towards the BJP’s Bhagirath Choudhary.
Bhilwara remains one of those seats where the candidate seems to matter little to voters and the narrative is concentrated on PM Modi and BJP’s policies. Hence, the BJP’s Subhash Chandra Baheria, a one-time MLA and three-term MP, looks comfortable against the Congress’s C P Joshi, the former Assembly Speaker.
The first phase's drop in polling is believed to have added to BJP worries, though in the last leg, the BJP's campaign that the Congress's social justice plank was another means to “take people's money” at least left the Opposition rattled. (Photo: PTI) 
How Rajasthan voted in the past.
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