As BJP inches ahead in Rajasthan, these leaders may be frontrunners in the CM race

However, should the BJP get only a thin majority in the tight contest, the party may fall back on her leadership to rally its troops together.

Even in the latter scenario, sources say, the BJP leadership is now confident about tackling Raje, having managed to run the show in the state without completely isolating her and her supporters. The central leadership has reportedly conveyed the need for this “pragmatic approach” down the ranks, with senior leaders told to give Raje due respect but not take dictations from her.

Sources said that a ticket to Raje from her seat Jhalrapatan and to most of her supporters was a way of keeping them happy while ensuring that they remained confined to their constituency, reducing the opportunity for trouble-making.

Sources said the Rajasthan BJP leadership was also told to get decisions and steps cleared with the centre, to keep an eye on what was happening, with Home Minister and senior party leader Amit Shah monitoring the state campaign closely.

A senior BJP leader said there was a clear message in the central leadership ensuring that there was no talk of chief ministership till after the election. “So the prospects of every aspirant continue to be bright… The choice can be anyone.”

The top requirements when it comes to that would be caste, equations with the central leadership and the ability to keep the state unit strong. “But, at the same time, it would be someone who can be controlled from Delhi. With Raje at the helm, the party could not do that,” a BJP leader familiar with the Rajasthan affairs of the party said.

If the OBC factor outweighs other castes, in light of the Opposition’s campaign, one name that has quickly emerged as the dark horse is Mahant Balaknath, the incumbent BJP MP from Alwar who is contesting from the Tijara Assembly seat.

Apart from his OBC credentials, Balaknath is seen as similar to – and having the blessings of – popular Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath. (The two belong to the same Nath religious sect.) Should the BJP seek to marry a Hindutva face with the promise of “strict” law and order – seen as exemplified by Adityanath – Balaknath would fit the bill. The Alwar MP is already branding himself as “Rajasthan’s Yogi”.

While Balaknath’s Yadav community might not be numerically powerful in Rajasthan – at less than 2% of the state’s population – the party will hope for spillover gains in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Yadavs can make or break elections.

A BJP MP said Balaknath’s bachelor status is also a plus. “Like Yogi, he would be able to dedicate his entire time to governance.”

However, there is one thing that sets Balaknath apart from Adityanath, and could be a deterrent. Compared to Adityanath’s five terms as Lok Sabha MP before he became CM, Balaknath is a novice.

Plus, the BJP might eventually decide against having two much-too-similar faces heading states that are geographically not far apart.

Those in the know say that set aside considerations in favour of Balaknath, the BJP central leadership’s first choice is Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, who enjoys the trust of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah.

Shekhawat, who has deep roots in the RSS, has made his way up the party ranks, starting with the ABVP and becoming students’ union president of Jodhpur’s Jai Narain Vyas University in 1992. He has also helmed crucial party projects such as the Modi government’s flagship Jal Jeevan Mission as Union minister, and steering the party’s electioneering in Punjab in the BJP’s first polls there after a split from ally Akali Dal.

Sources said that the only misgiving against Shekhawat, who was ultimately not fielded by the party in the Rajasthan Assembly elections after initial speculation, is his name being linked to the alleged Sanjivani Credit Cooperative Society scam in the state.

Plus, he is a Rajput, and the BJP may not want to pick another leader from the upper caste to head a state – after Adityanath in UP and Pushkar Dhami in Uttarakhand. Two of its former CMs, Jairam Thakur in Himachal Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh, are also Rajputs,

BJP Leader of Opposition in Rajasthan Rajendra Singh Rathore and former Union minister Rajyavardhan Rathore, who is in the Assembly race this time, could also find the Rajput factor going against them.

The BJP will need to balance this though, having alienated the community in the past over the alleged fake encounter killing of Anand Pal Singh, a gangster, under its government, in 2017.

Should the BJP be looking at Dalit faces, there is Arjun Ram Meghwal, an emerging face now elevated as Union Law Minister. Meghwal. He is believed to enjoy the confidence of PM Modi and has administrative experience. While he hasn’t been fielded either, like in the case of Shekhawat, that won’t be a consideration in the party making its choice, sources said.

Another BJP leader said to be in contention is former state party chief Satish Punia, whose Jat community has a presence in at least 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in the northern belt and a number of Assembly seats in Rajasthan.

There are some who don’t rule out Jaipur royal Diya Kumari, pointing to the surprise decision to field the Rajsamand MP from Vidyadhar Nagar, one of the BJP’s safest seats. However, the majority view is that being a Rajput is a handicap for Diya Kumari and that she might instead be made a minister, “helping her earn experience and emerge as a prominent face from the state”.

This view holds strong among leaders who talk of Diya Kumari being groomed as the BJP central leadership’s counter to Raje, who is also a woman leader from a regal background.

If it comes down to a “consensus” choice, two names outweigh the others: Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Rajasthan BJP chief C P Joshi.

Birla is an MP from Kota, Rajasthan, and by virtue of his role as Speaker, he has earned the gravitas that could be called for in a tight spot. Joshi is seen as a leader who tries to take everyone along and does not pick fights with anyone.

Finally, there is one more name that keeps popping up, that of Union Railway and IT Minister Ashwani Vaishnaw. He has not been a grassroots politician, and has barely spent any time in Rajasthan, a state to which he traces his origins. However, his star is on the rise as one of the faces to look out for in the Modi Cabinet.