The BJP’s shock defeat in the Bankipur Assembly bypoll has delivered a rare setback to the ruling party in one of its strongest urban bastions, but the result has also exposed a dilemma for Bihar’s principal Opposition party, RJD.
There are clear signs that a section of the Tejashwi Yadav-led party’s core support base shifted to Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor in an election where defeating the BJP appeared to become the overriding objective for many voters.
The bypoll, necessitated after the seat fell vacant, was won by Kishor, who polled over 64,000 votes to defeat the BJP. The RJD’s Rekha Kumari finished a distant third with around 14,000 votes. In the 2025 Assembly election, fought on the same seat, Rekha Kumari had secured over 46,000 votes while the BJP had won with more than 98,000 votes. Kishor’s JSP had then managed just over 7,000 votes, underscoring the dramatic shift in voter preference in less than a year.
For the RJD, the outcome is particularly significant because Bankipur, despite being an upper-caste-dominated, urban constituency and a traditional BJP stronghold, also has a sizeable population of Yadavs and Muslims who form the party’s core social coalition. The sharp fall in the RJD’s vote share has fuelled concerns that a section of these voters backed Kishor, believing he was better placed to defeat the BJP.
At the same time, the BJP’s defeat has reinforced a growing belief within the Opposition that the ruling party is vulnerable even in seats long considered impregnable, potentially giving fresh momentum to anti-BJP forces ahead of the next round of political contests in the state.
What RJD leaders are saying
In his first comments on the bypoll verdict, Leader of Opposition (LoP) Tejashwi Yadav chose to focus on the BJP’s loss, saying its defeat was the result of the “negative politics” of Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary.
“The Bankipur results have made it clear that in Bihar and the rest of north India, the BJP can be defeated. It shows that public frustration with the government’s failures has reached a critical level. The BJP’s problems are only going to grow,” RJD MP Sudhakar Singh told The Indian Express.
However, senior RJD leaders in private acknowledged that the result had also forced the party into introspection.
“We were not fancying our chances because Bankipur is a BJP bastion. We had lost by over 51,000 votes in the last Assembly election and thought that gap was too large to bridge. But an atmosphere developed in which voters concluded that the BJP had to be defeated,” a senior RJD leader said.
“Yes, the concern for us is that in this desire to defeat the BJP, some of our core voters saw Prashant Kishor as having a better chance. But there is also a silver lining. This victory will convince our cadre that the BJP can be defeated even in its strongholds if they work hard on the ground. We will revisit our strategy and see how to harness the momentum building against the BJP.”
According to the RJD leader, one factor that contributed to the anti-BJP sentiment was resentment over a series of police encounters since Samrat Choudhary became Chief Minister. The RJD has alleged that around a dozen encounters have disproportionately targeted Yadavs and Muslims. In May, Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Yadav accused the government of selectively targeting certain castes in police encounters, an allegation the BJP has rejected.
“The anger over these encounters influenced many Yadav and Muslim voters. They were more inclined to ensure the BJP’s defeat than remain loyal to one particular party,” the leader said.
Another senior RJD functionary argued that the shift should not be read as a structural erosion of the party’s support base.
“This is an urban constituency dominated by upper-caste voters. Once they began moving towards Kishor, some of our voters also consolidated behind him to maximise the chances of defeating the BJP. Such momentum sometimes develops in the final days of an election,” the leader said.
“Our core support remains intact. We are a cadre-based party with a deep organisational network. Kishor cannot match that. His appeal is stronger in urban pockets, but to emerge as a statewide challenger in Bihar he will eventually have to engage with questions of caste and identity. That is a politics the RJD has practised for decades.”
BJP sees silver lining
The BJP, while acknowledging the setback, also believes the bypoll may have longer-term political benefits. “The rise of Prashant Kishor is not necessarily bad news for us. This bypoll was an aberration in which he managed to attract some of our traditional voters. We will work to bring them back. In the longer run, his party is more likely to divide anti-BJP votes,” a senior BJP leader said.
Within the BJP, leaders attributed the defeat to a combination of local and political factors. Party sources said resentment among upper-caste voters over the proposed UGC equity regulations coincided with heightened youth discontent following the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP)-led protests against alleged examination paper leaks at Jantar Mantar, with Patna witnessing parallel protests.
They also pointed to the party’s last-minute change of candidate, which deprived it of the advantage of a well-known local face and admitted that complacency had set in after years of dominance in the constituency. One senior BJP leader is learnt to have remarked before the election that “even a dog or a cat” could win Bankipur on a BJP ticket.
As Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor won the Bankipur bypolls, signs have emerged that the RJD's traditional vote base has shifted away. 
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