As Prashant Kishor eyes debut from Nitin Nabin seat, why it may make or break JSP

The Bankipur seat falls within Patna, which has been won by the BJP in consecutive elections since 1995. The five-time Bankipur MLA Nabin resigned from the seat earlier this year in the wake of his elevation as the BJP president, succeeding J P Nadda, and his subsequent election to the Rajya Sabha.

Given the high-profile nature of the seat, the ruling BJP is expected to pull out all the stops to retain its bastion, setting up a highly charged bypoll battle in the state capital.

While the JSP’s core committee will make a formal announcement about its Bankipur candidate on July 5, sources said the party top brass was pushing for Kishor’s candidature.

JSP state president Manoj Bharati told reporters on Thursday: “The Jan Suraaj Party has decided to field a candidate in the Bankipur Assembly by-election. The formal announcement will be made on July 5 following a meeting of the party’s core committee. Distressed by the BJP’s misgovernance, the people of Bankipur are demanding that Prashant Kishor ji contest the election from here. Party leaders and workers share this sentiment for the architect of our campaign.”

While the BJP has yet to name its candidate, insiders said Neel Ranjan Ghosh — a veteran party worker considered close to Nabin — is the front-runner among the party hopefuls.

The Opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan alliance has also not announced its candidate for the seat so far.

What is at stake for BJP?

For the BJP, Bankipur has been a party stronghold since 1995, held first by Navin Kishore Prasad Sinha and later by his son Nitin Nabin.

The bypoll would serve as the first major electoral test for Samrat Choudhary since he took over as the Bihar Chief Minister, replacing Nitish Kumar in April. A loss, or even a narrowed victory margin, would severely dent his political authority and give the Opposition fresh ammunition to challenge his leadership.

“Since Nitin Nabin is now the BJP national president, losing his home turf immediately after his elevation would be an embarrassing psychological blow to the party at the national level,” said a senior BJP leader.

Patna’s urban pockets — specifically Bankipur’s dominant Kayastha voting bloc and trader groups — form the bedrock of the BJP’s urban identity in Bihar. The party needs to prove that its core urban voters remain entirely loyal following the change of the guard in the state.

What is at stake for JSP?

For Prashant Kishor and his JSP, the bypoll would be a critical shot at political comeback.

In the Bihar elections, the party had aggressively fielded candidates in 238 of the state’s 243 seats but drew a blank, walking away with just 3.4% vote share.

Bankipur represents an immediate chance to change the narrative around the party from being “just hype” to a “possible alternative”.

If Kishor contests the seat, his personal political capital will be on the line. He has called this bypoll a “referendum on the backdoor entry of Samrat Choudhary as CM”. If Kishor runs and wins — or even finishes a strong second by fracturing the BJP’s base — it could establish the JSP as a player in state politics. A poor showing, however, may relegate the party to the margins in Bihar’s already crowded political landscape.

Kishor spent years building a grassroots network for the JSP, primarily focusing on rural Bihar through foot marches. Convincing educated, traditionally pro-BJP urban voters in Patna to experiment with a new party could be a major test of his party.

While the BJP fights to keep its crown and the JSP tries to disrupt the status quo, the RJD is also looking for a breakthrough by tapping into any split in the urban vote.