Do populist schemes win elections? As PM Modi leads attack, a lot for Congress to chew on

In October 2022, the poll body came out with a standardised disclosure proforma for parties to declare details of the extent and expanse of the coverage of the promised scheme, quantification of physical coverage and financial implications and ways and means of raising resources for meeting the additional expenditure to be incurred in fulfilling the promises.

The latest debate was triggered after Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar hinted at a revision of the free bus ride scheme for women in his state. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge publicly chided Shivakumar and much to his party’s discomfiture revealed that the party leadership had asked its state units to make only those promises that were fiscally doable.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP were quick to lap up Kharge’s remarks, saying he has now realised that the Congress should not make reckless announcements. Modi said the Congress now stands badly exposed in front of the people and that the people should be “vigilant against the Congress sponsored culture of fake promises”.

The finger-pointing apart, no party can claim it was above board. On Monday, Prime Minister Modi himself amplified the BJP’s manifesto promises for Jharkhand while addressing a rally in Garhwa. He said the BJP’s manifesto promised initiatives such as the Gogo Didi scheme, which would provide women with Rs 2,100 each month and an unemployment allowance of Rs 2,000 for the youth under the “Yuva Sathi Bhatta” programme. He said gas cylinders would be available for Rs 500, with two free cylinders provided during festivals.

In fact, it was Prime Minister Modi who triggered the debate on freebies in 2022 when he derided the “revdi” culture, a reference to freebies offered by political parties, triggering a war of words between the BJP and Opposition parties. The Congress had made similar promises regarding unemployment allowance and financial assistance for women in Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh. And the Prime Minister criticised the Congress for making reckless promises.

Among the 10 promises the Congress made in Himachal Pradesh was a monthly allowance of Rs 1,500 crore for women. In Karnataka, the party promised Rs 2,000 monthly assistance for women heads of family, and Rs 3,000 allowance for unemployed youth with a graduate degree. In Telangana, the Congress made promises including Rs 2,500 each month for women heads of families.

The Congress government in Himachal has been able to implement only five of the 10 welfare promises announced in the manifesto. One of the promises was to provide 300 units of free electricity per household. Owing to financial constraints, the government in July decided to discontinue an existing power subsidy scheme of providing 125 units of free electricity to all households for all consumers falling under the tax-paying group.

But one question is does directionless populism win votes? Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy learnt it the hard way in Andhra Pradesh earlier this year and so did K Chandrasekhar Rao, popularly known as KCR, in Telangana last year. Both Reddy and Rao were heavily banking on their governments’ welfare schemes to see them through in the elections.

Jagan, in fact, recounted all the welfare schemes his government had rolled out — among them social security pension, Rythu Bharosa scheme, Amma Vodi scheme, YSR Aasara, YSR Cheyutha, YSR Matsyakara Bharosa — and said it was unfathomable how he could lose despite all that. KCR’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi was equally perplexed. On the other hand, the BJP retained power in Madhya Pradesh last year riding on the welfare initiatives, including the Ladli Behna scheme that is now replicated elsewhere by parties.

There is also a debate on the reach and efficacy of some of the schemes. “The free bus ride scheme for women in Karnataka should be limited to those in the BPL category. I had pointed it out to the high command … There is no logic to allow free bus rides to all women including income taxpayers,” said a senior Karnataka Congress leader. He then added, “It is not in our hands … the high command is pushing it … and the leadership perhaps believes such guarantees (promises) are a winning formula.”

Agreed a senior Congress leader from Maharashtra. The Congress is set to come out with its manifesto for Maharashtra on Wednesday. “There will be five guarantees but we are not aware of the exact details. The high command is fine-tuning it and they will let us know,” he said.

Despite Modi targeting the Congress over populist schemes, the BJP is heading into the elections in Maharashtra this month with its campaign built around the Eknath Shinde government’s welfare schemes (one of the centrepieces of the campaign is the “Ladki Bahin Yojana”). As a result, the Congress would have to come out with some promises to counter the BJP and its allies on this front, said the party leader from Maharashtra.