‘Our political enemy is DMK, ideological enemy is BJP’: Vijay signs off as Tamil Nadu poll race’s great unknown

The actor-turned-TVK leader closed his campaign on Tuesday at the YMCA Ground in Chennai with a speech that mixed welfare promises, attacks on rivals, appeals to minorities, complaints of being targeted, and the repeated suggestion that he alone represents something genuinely new.

“My greetings to all of you who reside in my heart,” he began, before declaring: “This is the last campaign of the election that is going to send the DMK government home.”

For weeks, Tamil Nadu’s election has had an unusual dual characteristic. The ruling DMK-led alliance is still seen by many political camps as entering the final stretch with an edge. But Vijay remains the unresolved variable: a first-time contender whose appeal among younger voters may reshape margins across dozens of constituencies even if it does not immediately translate into power.

In Vijay’s sights

Vijay’s speech came in the animated style that has increasingly defined his rallies: less conventional political oratory and more a performance of indignation, urgency, and rebellion. He accused the DMK government of burdening citizens through taxes and rising costs.

“After deceiving the people with false promises, they have increased house tax, water tax, professional tax, prices, and garbage tax. They have only raised the sufferings of the people,” he said, before widening the target.

“Our political enemy is the DMK, our ideological enemy is the BJP; there is no change in this,” he said, reaffirming a line central to the TVK’s positioning. At another point, he alleged that the DMK and the BJP maintained an “underground dealing”, claiming that after defeat, Chief Minister M K Stalin would “fall at the feet of (Narendra) Modi and Amit Shah” to escape corruption cases.

With Tamil Nadu’s minority vote often decisive in close contests, Vijay also used the final day of campaigning to reinforce his secular credentials. “When Hindus, Muslims, and Christians all remain united, no one can wag their tail at us. The policy of our party is secular social justice, and this Vijay will never depart from it. This Vijay will always stand by minority brothers and sisters,” he said.

That language places the TVK in direct competition not only with the AIADMK-BJP alliance but also with the DMK-led bloc, which has traditionally consolidated much of the minority vote. Vijay may be in with a chance to split anti-BJP votes too.

On Tuesday, Vijay also returned to the Karur stampede controversy that had cast a shadow over his campaign. “They are placing needless blame on me in the Karur issue,” he said. “On the way from Namakkal to Karur, after meeting the people, I came exactly at the time given by the police; the whole world saw it live.” The line was in line with a broader theme running through the speech: that he is being cornered because the established parties view him as a threat.

The math problem

Yet, popularity and victory are different equations. Political observers across camps estimate that Vijay’s vote share has steadily risen as per their calculations: from early assumptions of 10% to later projections of 15%, then 16 or 17%, with some recent assessments placing it near 20% in the final stretch.

That will be a major debut for a new party. But forming a government in Tamil Nadu typically requires a far deeper statewide spread, often closer to 30-35% vote share, depending on alliance structure and seat distribution. Even some TVK insiders said that while around 20 to 25 constituencies might see the party polling close to 30%, converting that into the 118 seats required for a majority remains highly unlikely this cycle. One close aide put it bluntly: “He will gain. But can he form the government?” Then he smiled, adding, “If Stalin is going to be the King, or even Edappadi K Palaniswami, Vijay will be the kingmaker.”

Tamil Nadu has seen “third-force” experiments before: Vaiko and Vijayakanth to Kamal Haasan and others. But those efforts often drew support from older protest voters, caste blocs, or region-specific pockets.

A senior TVK leader advising Vijay on strategy argued that his appeal was different. “There has always been a craving for a new face. But this is the first time in the last five decades that an alternative face for youngsters has emerged. Vaiko or Vijayakanth did not have that connection with youngsters. That makes the Vijay phenomenon unique.”

Even rival parties acknowledge that the TVK’s support base appears younger, more urban, and less tied to inherited party loyalties. In a state where older political memory has often shaped voting, that makes Vijay a harder number to model.

Vijay ended the day on a confident note: “On April 23, you vote for me for one day. Not just for the next five years, but forever, this Vijay will listen to what you say. Victory is certain.”

On Tuesday, Stalin campaigned in Villivakkam and Kolathur constituencies in Chennai, AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami addressed a rally in Salem, DMK MP Kanimozhi was in Thoothukudi, DMK ally Premalatha Vijayakanth campaigned in Virudhachalam, and NTK leader Seeman was in Karaikudi, where he is locked in a four-cornered contest.

Tamil Nadu’s major parties do not appear ready to accept Vijay’s claim. But neither are they dismissing it. And that may be Vijay’s most consequential achievement of this election: not proving he can rule yet, but becoming the first alternative in years to whom many younger voters feel they naturally belong.