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If the influential Patidar community played a key role in determining the outcome of the 2017 Gujarat Assembly election, the 2022 Assembly polls in the state may turn out to be no different. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), whose entry into the Gujarat fray has created ripples, is also looking to garner votes of this influential community by fielding many Patidar candidates.
The outgoing 14th Gujarat Assembly had 44 Patidar MLAs, of the total 182 – slightly less than 48 in the 13th Assembly. Thus Patidar MLAs represented 24.17% and 26.37% of the total seats, respectively. This is much higher than their proportion in the state population which, by the community’s estimates, stands at about 18%.
Of the 111 outgoing MLAs of the ruling BJP, 31 are Patidars. These include four of the 17 originally elected on Congress tickets in 2017, who later crossed over.
In the coming elections, of the 181 candidates announced by the BJP so far, 44 are Patidars. In the Saurashtra-Kutch region, which accounts for 54 seats and votes on December 1, the fight for the Patidar vote is expected to get tougher, with AAP nominating 19 Patidars, the BJP nominating 18 and the Congress 16.
Citing past elections, Congress leader Paresh Dhanani says the Patidars exercise influence in 106 Assembly seats, of which 48 are dominated by the community. Of these, 33 generally witness a contest between two major Patidar candidates, splitting their votes, with the winner ultimately decided by other communities, he claims. However, in 58 other seats, the Patidar votes are decisive even though other communities account for the largest chunk.
Arguing that ultimately, more than such numbers, “what matters more is the general influence you exercise over all communities in a given seat” Dhanani says: “The Congress has always tried to unite the society and country, unlike the BJP.”
The 2022 elections will witness parties doing the delicate balancing act even between sub-castes, as these votes could also matter given the three-way split.
Jeram Vansjaliya, trustee of Umiyadham, Sidsar, which is among the largest organisations of Kadva Patels, says the Patidar influence is not surprising as they dominate industry and trade, “the sectors which provide employment on a large scale”. “Parties may give 25% of their tickets to the Patidars. But they can win 30% of the total seats in the Assembly.”
Of the 17 chief ministers Gujarat has had so far, five have been Patidars, including the incumbent CM Bhupendra Patel.
Leuva Patels account for about 80 % of the community, with Kadvas making up the remaining. While Leuvas are concentrated in Saurashtra and pockets of central and south Gujarat, Kadvas are mainly in north Gujarat and a few pockets in Saurashtra. The BJP’s current list of candidates has 24 Leuvas and 20 Kadvas.
The Shree Khodaldham Trust (SKT), a religious organisation founded by industrialist Naresh Patel, has a huge influence on the Leuva Patels. Naresh Patel, who was unavailable for comment, had earlier announced his intention to take the political plunge, but later backtracked, although two SKT members are contesting — Ramesh Tilala on the BJP’s ticket from Rajkot (South) and Dharmik Malaviya on the AAP’s ticket from Surat’s Oldpad.
Largely an agrarian community till a few decades ago, Patidars started establishing their dominance in politics and economy of Gujarat from the 1980s as they united in the wake of the KHAM (Kshatriya, Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims) social coalition formed by the Congress.
Since 1995, the BJP has established a virtual monopoly in Gujarat’s electoral politics as the Patidars have by and large stood by the BJP and voted unitedly as a community. The Kolis who, unlike the upper-caste Patidars, are OBCs are numerically stronger than Patidars, but they are divided into many sub-caste groups and scattered across the state. Nor do they have the financial heft of Patidars.
The only time the BJP-Patidar alliance came under severe strain was in 2015-17 when Hardik Patel, through his Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS), launched an agitation, demanding OBC quota for the Patidars.
This time, a BJP leader told The Indian Express, “The Supreme Court clearing the 10% quota for the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) has made the Patidars happy.”
Hasmukh Lungariya, the SKT’s spokesperson, agrees, adding: “Not only that, the EWS quota, for which credit should go to the Patidars, will win the BJP additional votes from upper-caste voters since they will also get benefits of this new reservation category.”
Vansjaliya too says it is difficult to accurately predict voting trends in this election in the absence of any wave or dominant issue. “It remains to be seen whose vote share AAP eats into and where.”
Lungariya believes some of the issues at the heart of the quota stir persist. “Many will say that farmers are getting record prices for cotton and groundnut this season. But prices of fertiliser and diesel are also record high, offsetting any potential real gains,” says the Leuva Patel leader.
The PAAS, meanwhile, has virtually become defunct. According to Dinesh Bambhaniya, one of its convenors, about 30 of the organisation’s leaders are fighting the polls as candidates of various parties, including Hardik (BJP), Gopal Italia (the state AAP president), sitting MLAs Lalit Vasoya and Pratap Dudhat (Congress) and Agriculture minister Raghavji Patel and Harshad Ribadiya (BJP).
Bambhaniya believes a significant chunk of the 2017 Patidar vote that went to the Congress will return to the BJP. “Ninety per cent of our community members vote for the BJP. In 2017, that came down to 40% . Around 20-25% of it has now shifted back to the BJP. So, this time, the BJP will get more Patidar votes, though not as high as before 2017. It is to be seen where the remaining Patidar votes go, to AAP or not.”
Bambhaniya, for his part, plans to campaign for all Patidar candidates, irrespective of their political leanings, on behalf of the PAAS. “We will support those who supported our agitation. Our aim is to have maximum community members in the Assembly. It does not matter which party they belong to.”
