Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena left scrambling as rumours of a split intensify

Raut said MPs who attended Sunday’s meeting with Thackeray had personally reassured him of their loyalty. “The MPs who attended the meeting assured Thackeray that they are standing firmly with him. Some MPs took an oath in the name of Goddess Bhavani… and said they will not leave the party. Because they have taken these oaths on their own, I do not believe they are planning to leave,” he said.

Dismissing reports that Thackeray had told MPs during Sunday’s meeting that those wishing to leave were free to do so, Raut said the remark was being falsely attributed to him. “I was present in the meeting. I can firmly say that Thackeray did not make any such statement. That was something he said four years ago. During the Shiv Sena rebellion, some MLAs kept in a hotel were still leaving. That was when Thackeray had made that remark. He has said nothing like that now,” Raut said.

However, Sena (UBT) sources said the leadership has been reaching out to MPs individually to assess the situation and ensure there is no possibility of a repeat of the events of June 2022, when the undivided Shiv Sena split following Shinde’s rebellion and brought down the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.

Amid the speculation, Thackeray has convened a meeting of the party’s MLAs and MLCs on June 22, the opening day of the Monsoon Session of the Maharashtra legislature.

The latest round of speculation intensified after former MP and Sena leader Krupal Tumane claimed that “Operation Tiger” had entered its final stage. “Like ahead of any operation, a doctor conducts an investigation. And performs surgery once that investigation is complete. A similar stage has arrived for Operation Tiger. Seven MPs and 16 MLAs are in touch and the operation is in its final lap. It can happen even before the Monsoon Session. We are only waiting for the final go-ahead,” Tumane said.

The claims are the latest in a series of public assertions by leaders from the Shinde camp over the past four days.

When it began

The speculation was first triggered on Saturday when Union minister Prataprao Jadhav claimed that “Operation Tiger” was nearing completion and could be executed whenever Shinde decided.

Soon after, Maharashtra minister Bharat Gogawale said leaders from the rival camp were already in touch with the ruling Sena and more would be joining soon.

Another minister Pratap Sarnaik on Tuesday added to the speculation, saying the Sena “kept its doors open 24 hours, 365 days for MPs, MLAs and workers willing to join”.

The timing of the speculations is particularly sensitive for Sena (UBT) as it is set to mark its 60th foundation day on June 19, followed by the fourth anniversary of the June 21, 2022 split.

Different response

Unlike previous claims over the past two years, the Sena (UBT) leadership reacted unusually quickly this time, signalling that the latest assertions were being taken seriously.

Within hours of the claims surfacing, Thackeray summoned all party MPs for a meeting on Sunday. Party sources said MPs had been asked to remain in Mumbai through the weekend.

Saturday also coincided with Sena (UBT) MLA Aaditya Thackeray’s birthday celebrations at Matoshree, traditionally an occasion when party leaders make it a point to remain present. The absence of several MPs over the politically sensitive weekend therefore drew attention within party circles.

When the meeting was held on Sunday, only four MPs attended in person, even as the leadership sought to project unity amid growing speculation. The party claimed that the remaining five joined virtually or had spoken separately with the leadership.

Within the Sena (UBT), attention quickly shifted to the fact that the issue was not merely that five MPs had missed one meeting. Despite being asked to remain in Mumbai, none of the five attended meetings either on Saturday or Sunday.

Following the meeting, Raut publicly explained the absence of each MP while maintaining that all nine remained firmly behind Thackeray.

Rumours intensify

The controversy deepened a day later after Yavatmal-Washim MP Sanjay Deshmukh, one of the MPs absent on Sunday, met Jadhav in Delhi. However, both Deshmukh and Jadhav denied any political angle, saying the meeting was related to constituency work.

As speculation persisted on Tuesday, Sena (UBT) leaders once again moved to contain the narrative.

Rejecting Tumane’s claims, Desai described reports of MPs being in touch with the Shinde Sena as “baseless”. Later in the day, Raut also rejected suggestions that MPs were unhappy with Thackeray’s leadership.

The numbers make the speculation politically significant. Under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, support from at least two-thirds of members is required for a breakaway faction to avoid disqualification. In Sena (UBT)’s case, that number is six MPs.

For now, there is no indication of an immediate split. Yet politically, the significance lies elsewhere: repeated claims of “Operation Tiger” have kept the Sena (UBT) leadership occupied managing internal unease and publicly defending its MPs, leaving Matoshree responding to a narrative largely driven by the Sena led by Shinde.