Naveen Patnaik’s full-circle moment: Former CM turns to old playbook to take on BJP

Now, the political journey of Patnaik, the BJD, and Odisha politics has come full circle as the veteran leader has renewed his old plank, making “deteriorating” law and order the core of his pitch against the BJP.

Patnaik has started speaking about the rising incidents of mob justice and vigilantism. In his fiercest-ever attack on the BJP, the former CM on May 19 termed the BJP rule in Odisha as “goonda raj (rule of the hooligans)”.

A 32-year-old police constable was beaten to death by a mob in Balianta on the outskirts of Bhubaneswar on May 7. Then on May 18, a group of young men assaulted a 23-year-old youth and his fiancée in full public view on a busy road in Berhampur town. The Berhampur incident occurred soon after Odisha’s DGP issued a “zero tolerance” warning against criminals, saying that those disturbing law and order should be ready to face “encounter”.

Patnaik said these incidents had terrified and shaken the people of Odisha. “It feels like the BJP government has handed Odisha over to criminals. Emboldened criminals are committing extremely brutal acts. Where is the police administration going? Where is the rule of law?” he posted on X.

Taking a dig at the BJP leadership for engaging in publicity drives, the BJD chief said the government won’t run on “empty bombast as people need security” and accused it of shielding criminals.

Even as police made quick arrests in both the Balianata and Berhampur incidents — arresting at least 15 and four accused, respectively — the BJD pointed out many such incidents had been reported of late from across the state.

On May 11, a youngster’s hand was chopped off and he was murdered by suspected members of a stone quarry mafia in Odisha’s Nayagarh district. Four were arrested in this case. The police in Cuttack district also arrested 26 people at Talamundali Sabar Sahi in Cuttack district on May 19, nine days after a 30-year-old man was beaten to death over suspicion of witchcraft. The victim’s body was also set ablaze after his murder. There were also incidents of attacks on the police and government officials by criminals and sand mining mafias.

Patnaik on May 25 again took on the government over another attack on a youth in broad daylight in Berhampur. “Goondaraj across entire Odisha, an atmosphere of fear all around. Even after the police’s threats of encounters, criminals are fearlessly committing crimes on the highways, exposing the utter failure of the governance system,” he wrote on X.

The former CM’s return to issues of public safety and security to build a narrative against the BJP government has added legitimacy in public because his government had the reputation for maintaining the law-and-order situation.

National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data says Odisha recorded the highest rate of violent crimes in the country in 2024. At least 161.6 people per lakh population (projected population of 466.6 lakh) were victims of violent offences such as murder, rape, and kidnapping. As per the NCRB, crime cases saw a 6% dip in 2024, recording 58.85 lakh cases as against 62.41 lakh cases in 2023.

The BJD’s campaign on law and order isn’t restricted to Patnaik’s statements on social media alone. The party organised a massive protest outside the DGP’s office in Cuttack on May 14 and has threatened to launch an agitation across the state.

“Odisha has long had a reputation of being a relatively peaceful and socially inclusive state. People generally don’t tolerate violence. They won’t tolerate a government which can’t bring law-and-order problems under control. And as violent incidents happen frequently, it’s like a shot in the arm for the BJD. This will help us to develop a narrative against ruling BJP,” said a BJD leader.

Senior BJD leader Bhrugu Baxipatra offered up a theory on why there was a perception that crime rates had gone up. “After the BJP came to power, the government isn’t allowing police to work freely. BJP leaders exert pressure on police not to act (against the criminals). This has led to a collapse of morale of the police. Instead, BJP leaders are encouraging criminals and anti-socials to take law into their own hands,” he told The indian Express.

Baxipatra cited some examples. “Titlagarh BJP MLA Nabin Jain snatched a PSO’s gun and fired blank shots during a Ram Navami procession. No action was taken against him. A video of two BJP candidates, who had lost the election, threatening a government official in Cuttack district went viral. There was no action. If leaders of the ruling party indulge in such activities and get away with it, it will definitely encourage their followers to do the same,” he said.

The BJP-BJD journey

The BJP, however, isn’t oblivious to this shift in the BJD’s strategy. Its initial rise in Odisha was closely linked to Patnaik’s political fortunes and remembers how he unseated the Congress, actively collaborating in that political project. If Patnaik manages to revive his party, it will have a challenge on its hands.

“Today’s BJP is not like the BJP of the late 90s. The situation at that time was also different. The BJP was a small player in Odisha at that time and there was a political vacuum following Biju Patnaik’s death. The BJP rather helped the formation of the BJD to dislodge the Congress. The party is more aggressive now and making inroads across the country, including in Odisha. The BJD today is not in a position to fight the BJP,” said a BJP leader.

When Biju Patnaik died on April 17, 1997, his followers convinced Naveen, his younger son, to return home, fill the leadership vacuum, and carry on his father’s legacy. At the time, there was “encouragement” from the then BJP leadership at the Centre, which wanted to dislodge Congress from the state.

When the BJD led a coalition government for the first time in March 2000, the BJP was its junior ally. Patnaik, who gained massive popularity, made aggressive attempts to expand party organisation at the cost of the dwindling Congress, which shrank rapidly over the next decade. Its vote share fell steadily from 33.8% in the 2000 Assembly polls to 29% in 2009 to 16.3% in 2019 and finally 13,26% in 2024.

However, major differences with the BJP cropped up after the Kandhamal riots in 2008 in which 39 people were killed following the murder of Hindu religious leader Laxmanananda Saraswati. While the BJD, which saw itself as a secular party, was keen on taking a hard line against the perpetrators of the riots, the BJP found itself disagreeing with its ally. Months later, ahead of the 2009 polls — the parliamentary and Assembly polls have been held simultaneously in Odisha since 2004 — Patnaik severed the alliance and adopted a policy of equidistance from the Congress and the BJP, which suffered a major electoral setback in the state.

Though the parties never entered into an alliance again, Patnaik warmed up to the BJP once Narendra Modi came to power at the Centre in 2014. Though officially out of the NDA, the BJD sided with the Modi government on key issues in Parliament — such as the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act and the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners Act — and extended support to the BJP government in the presidential elections of 2017 and 2022. Unlike other regional parties that fiercely opposed the BJP, the BJD came to be seen as an informal ally of the BJP.

However, BJD leaders now acknowledge that this may have contributed to their party’s rout in the 2024 elections. Since then, the party, which has no Lok Sabha MP at the moment, has also weakened in the Rajya Sabha. Three of its MPs in the Upper House — Mamata Mahanta, Sujeet Kumar, and Debashish Samantaray — have defected to the BJP.

“The BJD has long been regarded as a state-bred party formed to fight for Odisha’s interests. After 2019, the party’s decision to blindly side with the BJP’s agenda created confusion among people. This helped the BJP gain ground. This is one among several other reasons behind the party’s loss,” said a BJD leader.

Another leader said Patnaik wants to secure the party’s core organisational base and energise the cadre. Having realised the threat the BJP poses, the former CM has started taking it on more aggressively. This is where the BJD’s campaign on law-and-order comes in.

Patnaik recently also targeted the Centre over the NEET paper leak, demanding accountability, while the BJD has organised protests in several districts. The party has targeted Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the most prominent BJP leader from Odisha and the architect of the ruling party’s organisational base in the state. Sensing the political ramifications of Patnaik’s direct attack, at a public meeting in his Sambalpur Lok Sabha constituency, Pradhan urged him to remain aligned with PM Modi.

Challenges for BJD

While Patnaik falls back on a tried-and-tested playbook in hopes of a political revival, his health problems and advanced age — he is 79 years old — are a hurdle along with the lack of a clear succession plan. The continued presence of Patnaik’s former secretary V K Pandian in his inner circle, despite his official retirement from politics after the 2024 rout, has also caused much consternation in party circles.

“Despite his advanced age and the party not being in power, Naveen babu is more active today. During the recent Rajya Sabha polls, he directly coordinated the BJD’s strategy and led from the front. Whenever there is an organisational issue these days, he intervenes directly,” said a party leader.

The BJP’s plan, meanwhile, is simple: just wait it out. “The party faces an existential crisis because of which many of their leaders and panchayat-level leaders switch to the BJP every day. Several other leaders are also in touch with the BJP,” said a BJP MLA.

However, the government is not taking the BJD’s pivot to a campaign around law and order lightly. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi chaired two review meetings in the second week of May and directed the police to adopt tougher measures to maintain public security and curb crimes. He also ordered a crackdown on organised gangs.

Following this, in various districts the police conducted encounters against criminals — from Jharsuguda and Sambalpur to Bhubaneswar and Berhampur. In almost all these incidents, the criminals suffered bullet injuries on their legs. There was no report of any fatalities. Last week, DGP Y B Khurania also informed that lists of habitual criminals were being prepared at police stations across the state.