Modi’s birthday message to Fadnavis carries a bigger signal: He’s staying in Maharashtra

A senior BJP functionary, requesting anonymity, said typical birthday greetings run to two lines. That Modi chose to specifically mention Maharashtra’s progress under Fadnavis, the functionary said, “categorically conveys his continuation in the state full term.”

Senior minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule went further. “We know Fadnavis is here not only till 2029 but 2034,” he said, adding that no one in the state BJP matches his stature or vision, and that Maharashtra’s role in the Viksit Bharat 2047 push makes him the only suitable choice for CM.

Party insiders call the Delhi-shift chatter a recurring pattern in coalition politics, not a genuine threat. “All these discussions about Fadnavis shifting to Delhi are often triggered by a section within Mahayuti, including our alliance partners, to unsettle him politically,” a political manager within the party said, calling it “a pattern which we now acknowledge as part of coalition politics.” Alliance partners use the tactic hoping to eventually claim the CM’s post, the insider said, while the opposition uses it to project cracks within the BJP.

The speculation had multiple triggers this week. NCP minister Dattatray Bharne said he prayed Fadnavis “should get the opportunity to lead the country at the right time as PM,” and that NCP president Sunetra Pawar should get a chance to serve as Maharashtra CM, remarks that came amid talk of a meeting between NCP (SP) leader Jayant Patil and Fadnavis. Insiders read Bharne’s comments as an attempt to build goodwill across the BJP and NCP amid the NCP’s internal power struggle. Separately, insiders say a section within Shinde’s party revives similar leadership-change theories whenever the Deputy CM visits Delhi to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

BJP chief media cell in-charge Navnath Ban was direct. “Fadnavis will lead the 2029 Maharashtra polls. There should be no ambiguity in this,” he said.

A senior BJP MLA framed the case for continuity around coalition math. Maharashtra has run on coalition governments through much of 1995 to 2026, from Congress-NCP’s 1999-2014 run to the undivided Shiv Sena-BJP alliance after 2014, the three-party Shinde-Ajit Pawar coalition from 2022, and the current arrangement since 2024. Fadnavis, the MLA argued, understands this complexity and can balance politics with administration, a case the party also makes on results: the BJP topped the state under him in three straight elections, winning 122 seats in 2014, 105 in 2019 and 132 in 2024, and swept local body polls, including the BMC, for the first time.

BJP strategists flag a related concern: anti-incumbency after two to three terms is natural, and the party’s challenge into the next election is proving good governance on the ground. Sources say that when a RSS-BJP functionary asked Amit Shah in an internal meeting whether Maharashtra’s leadership would change, Shah’s response was direct: “We will not unsettle Fadnavis from Maharashtra.”

Even so, Fadnavis faces mounting challenges as he turns 56. While the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi remains divided and largely on the back foot, CJP protests have spread across Nagpur, Mumbai, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Jalna and Pune, and the public response hasn’t gone well for the government.

Fadnavis addressed the protests directly on Tuesday. “In any democracy, people have the right to protest. But it should come with constitutional rights and responsibilities,” he said, adding that attempts to create anarchy by groups exploiting the protests for other agendas “cannot be justified.” He also holds the home portfolio, and with police having registered cases against several hundred protest participants, how the state handles the backlash is likely to be watched as closely as the succession question itself.