3 min readThiruvananthapuramJun 4, 2024 04:44 PM IST
First published on: Jun 4, 2024 at 03:27 PM IST
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is leading in 17 out of 20 seats in Kerala, indicating that the coalition is set for one of the best-ever electoral performances in Kerala. In Thrissur, BJP’s Suresh Gopi is set for a victory with a 74,000-odd lead while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is leading in Attingal and Alathur.
Anti-incumbency factor
A major factor that worked in favour of the UDF was the resentment against the eight-year-old regime of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Front government. This was palpable across Kerala, including among CPI(M) sympathisers. The CPI(M) during electioneering did not solicit votes highlighting the achievements of the LDF regime and instead focused its campaign on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The Congress, meanwhile, campaigned against the “misrule” of the NDA government at the Centre and the Left government in Kerala.
In some previous Lok Sabha elections too, voters in Kerala have not backed the incumbent Left government. In 2019, the Congress swept the state by winning 19 out of 20 parliamentary seats. Then, one of the factors was Hindu voters’ protest against young women in Sabarimala, which was facilitated by the Left government following a Supreme Court verdict. In 2004, the Left scored a resounding victory in Kerala as the state voted against the state government led by A K Antony.
Minority consolidation
An early analysis of the outcome shows that Congress managed to retain the minority votes of Muslims and Christians in the state, which had gone to the LDF in the Assembly elections of 2021. While the BJP looked to win over Christian votes, CPI(M) heavily banked upon the Muslims.
The only election plank of the CPI(M) in Kerala was the CAA, which was notified by the BJP government days before the election schedule was announced. CM Pinarayi Vijayan attacked the Congress over CAA saying the grand old party had no stand on the matter and was treading a soft Hindutva approach. However, on the ground, minorities who were concerned about the return of the BJP for a third term, realised that the Left by and large was limited to Kerala and had minimal relevance at the national level as far as taking on the BJP was concerned. Besides, the UDF vigorously campaigned about an alleged CPI(M)-BJP nexus in Kerala.
The BJP was largely expected to win over a chunk of Christian votes. Although the party conducted several Christian outreach programmes ahead of the election, the voting pattern shows that Christians in Kerala have stood with the Congress. In central Kerala districts, where Christians are in sizable chunks, Congress candidates are leading by a huge margin.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi during his Kerala campaign in April. (Congress/ X) 
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