Kerala polls test durability of Left, UDF’s social coalitions: Will subtle shifts decide outcome?
Community equations that once ensured predictability now appear more fluid ahead of the vote.
Five years ago, the CPI(M)’s success in breaking the decades-old pattern of the state electorate voting out the incumbent government was the result of it consolidating support among Hindus and Muslims, along with specifically, OBCs and Dalits. As Kerala heads to the polls on Thursday (April 9), the outcome may depend on whether the two main alliances, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front, manage to hold on to their traditional support bases among the major communities and whether the BJP can capitalise on any fragmentation.
Five years ago, the CPI(M)’s success in breaking the decades-old pattern of the state electorate voting out the incumbent government was the result of it consolidating support among Hindus and Muslims, along with specifically, OBCs and Dalits. However, the question this time is whether it still has that grip on these communities.
Muslims, comprising around 27% of the state’s population according to the 2011 Census, have preferred to back the CPI(M) to keep a check on the BJP since it began its expansion attempts in the state. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in which the UDF won 18 of the 20 parliamentary seats, they appear to have swung behind the Congress-led alliance as many would have considered it a more effective counterweight against the BJP nationally.
Since then, the CPI(M)’s political messaging appears to have shifted. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s public backing of Hindu Ezhava (OBC) leader Vellappally Natesan appears not to have gone down well with sections of the ruling party’s Muslim supporters, as Natesan is known for his anti-Muslim outbursts. The lack of the CPI(M)’s attempts to distance itself from Natesan even irked its ally CPI.
All this and the government’s decision to host the Global Ayyappa Sangamam last year and its recent cautious stance on the entry of women in the Sabarimala temple have also raised questions. The minority community appears to have read these signals as the Left’s lack of resolve to protect their interests. Natesan’s son, Thushar Vellappally, heads the political wing of the SNDP, which is a key partner in the BJP-led NDA.
The CPI(M)’s efforts to consolidate Hindu votes by bringing together Ezhava outfit SNDP Yogam and the Nair Service Society came to nought after the latter refused to join any such coalition. The Sabarimala gold theft case has also dented the party’s image among many Hindus, party insiders said. But the CPI(M) still hopes to retain a significant portion of its Hindu support, both among Nairs and Ezhavas, on the back of the goodwill individual MLAs enjoy.
“The allegations and the arrests of a few party leaders in the case have created suspicion, if not anything else, in the minds of the voters. There is a substantial drop in the party’s Hindu supporters. People are not accepting that the party and the government are clean. Communal equations were favourable for the party in northern Kerala, but it’s no longer like that,” said a CPI(M) leader.
The fear that a third straight term out of power could diminish UDF constituent IUML — a major force among the minority community and the object of Natensan’s attacks — could fuel support for the Opposition alliance in north Kerala that has a significant Muslim population.
“The UDF is pinning its hopes on Muslim consolidation in its favour, as it happened during the Lok Sabha election,” said a CPI(M) senior leader. “The LDF, meanwhile, hopes to garner a section of Muslim votes because there is a trust factor for the LDF when it comes to the Assembly polls. The UDF also hopes to have a large chunk of Christian votes. It was big in the last Lok Sabha polls, but the BJP is also eyeing it. A major chunk of Ezhava will definitely go to the LDF, while the Nairs seem to have gravitated towards the BJP.”
“There is a major shift in public mood when you compare the election situation today with the one in 2021,” said writer and Kerala politics expert N P Chekkutty. “Muslims and Hindus placed their faith in Pinarayi Vijayan and the CPM but are now disillusioned.”
Christians and BJP
Over the past several years, the BJP has been trying to reach out to the Christian community that comprises over 18% of the population. Its ability to create an impact in the Assembly polls hinges on whether it can break the UDF’s Christian support and bring it towards itself.
The party has fielded seven Christian candidates, among whom are prominent faces contesting from seats in central Kerala with significant Christian population: Union Minister George Kurian from Kanjirappalli and state unit vice-president Shaun George from Pala, both in Kottayam district, and party general secretary Anoop Antony in Thiruvalla in Pathanamthitta district. The alliance with the Twenty20 outfit of garment major Kitex group, which is led by its managing director Sabu M Jacob, could also be an X factor among Christians in the region, party insiders feel.
But the proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act, or FCRA, have led to pushback from Christian groups, with the major denominations of the Church, including the Syro-Malabar Church, expressing their opposition. The Opposition attempted to jump on this issue last week, with both CM Vijayan and Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan writing to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Centre has put the proposed changes on hold, with both the LDF and the UDF hoping this will be enough to damage the BJP’s prospects.
The BJP, party leaders said, did not see a major shift in Christian votes during the local body polls late last year. However, they remain hopeful about their years-long outreach to the Church paying off.
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