Kerala poll results: UDF on comeback trail, who will Congress pick as its CM face?

While Venugopal is not contesting the polls, latest trends show Chennithala leading from the Haripad constituency by over 7,000 votes. Satheesan, meanwhile, has managed a slender lead of over 1,000 votes from the Paravur seat.

Different power struggle

What distinguishes the current phase of the Congress power struggle in Kerala is that, unlike in the past, the contenders are not limited to state-level leaders. The entry of K C Venugopal, a key member of the Congress high command, has added a new layer of complexity to the contest.

Earlier, when such situations came up while the Congress was in power at the Centre, the party’s high command would manage the ambitions of senior leaders by giving them roles in the central government. For instance, in 1995, when veteran leader K Karunakaran had to make way for A K Antony as chief minister, the party offered him a Cabinet position at the Centre. Similarly, in 2004, when Antony resigned as chief minister, paving the way for Oommen Chandy, he too was given a prominent role in the UPA government. However, with the Congress out of power at the Centre, the contest for the Kerala CM role assumes particular significance.

A senior Congress leader said, “Each of the three leaders’ camps is confident of securing the chief minister post. Public perception is in favour of Satheesan, who has led the UDF in the last five years, fighting the Pinarayi Vijayan government. He should be the natural choice. But most of the Congress MLA candidates are loyalists of Venugopal, because the candidates were selected by the high command. As the senior-most leader, Chennithala is also a formidable contender. Chennithala is close to Sonia Gandhi because he was an MP during the premiership of Rajiv Gandhi.”

Chennithala was the Congress’s CM face in 2021, when the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF retained power. As part of efforts to establish himself as a leading contender this time, Chennithala has announced a podcast titled “Kerala yatra”. The podcast, being pushed by social media pages of supporters’ groups and cyber teams, is being touted as a platform for him to speak of his vision for Kerala’s development. It will also recall his political journey, including his long-standing association with the Nehru-Gandhi family as well as his fight against the LDF in the state.

Venugopal, who is a Lok Sabha member from Alappuzha, has adopted a tactical stand, refusing to denounce the social media campaign by supporters calling for him to be the CM face. Venugopal has said, “I am not interested in the debates. Let the result come. There is a process. Wait till the counting of votes.”

Earlier this month, he released a book containing a collection of his speeches in the Kerala Assembly, the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha. The book is titled “Alongside Truth: Struggles and Positions”.

Several Congress MLA candidates have also backed Venugopal, both implicitly and explicitly. One of them, Vidya Balakrishnan, a first-time candidate in the Elathur seat in Kozhikode, said, “He (Venugopal) plays a crucial role in guiding the Congress… With his organisational excellence…even bigger responsibilities await him.”

Senior leader Ajay Tharayil put out a Facebook post in favour of Venugopal, saying, “The chief minister should be someone who has risen through youth and student struggles.”

If Venugopal, who is not among the MLA candidates this time, is picked for the CM post, the Congress will have to persuade a sitting legislator to resign so that he can contest for a seat in the Assembly. It would also lead to a byelection for the Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat, which Venugopal now represents.

Satheesan’s camp has already erected flex boards announcing him as the Kerala CM. While none of the sitting MLAs or candidates has come out openly rallying behind Satheesan, the Opposition Leader enjoys the support of the masses. “MLAs are silent because they do not want to antagonise Vengopal, who is part of the high command. But when the time comes, Satheesan will get support from a section of them. For the last five years, he has been leading them,” said a leader from the Satheesan camp.

A Congress source said, however, that the contest for the CM post would not lead to a split. “Even as the leaders make their case, the Congress high command will make the decision in the comfort of the knowledge that there will not be any split in the party’s state unit as witnessed in some other states over the leadership issue.”