Kerala exit polls: Congress-led UDF predicted to return to power after decade of Left rule
However, most pollsters predict a thin margin of victory for the UDF over the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front.
The Axis My India poll has predicted that the UDF will get 44% of the polled votes, while the CPI(M)-led LDF has been predicted to win 39% (Source: Facebook) Various exit polls have predicted that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) will come to power in Kerala following the April 9 Assembly elections. However, most pollsters predict a thin margin of victory for the UDF over the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).
The LDF government, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has been in power in Kerala for a decade after the alliance won in 2016 and retained power in the 2021 Assembly elections, making this a crucial election for the UDF.
The Axis My India poll has predicted that the UDF will get 44% of the polled votes, while the CPI(M)-led LDF has been predicted to win 39%. The BJP-led NDA will likely get 14% of polled votes, according to the poll. In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the voteshare difference between the LDF and UDF was around 6%, leading to LDF winning 99 out of 140 seats.
The CNN-News survey has predicted 70 to 80 seats for the UDF, and 58 to 68 for the LDF. It has predicted that the NDA will get up to four seats. The PMAQ exit poll survey says the UDF is likely to win 71-79 seats, while the LDF could get 62-69 seats. It predicted that the NDA would get 1-4 seats. Poll Matrix India says the UDF could get up to 75 seats, while the LDF will finish between 60 and 65. This survey predicted that the NDA would get up to five seats.
The JVC exit poll has predicted that the UDF will likely get between 72 and 84 seats, while the LDF could get a maximum of 61 seats. It predicted that the NDA could win 3-7 seats. The People’s Pulse exit poll says the UDF is likely to win 75-85 seats, while the LDF could be reduced to 55-65 seats, and the NDA could get up to three seats.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, 10 out of 11 exit surveys had predicted that the LDF would retain power. Various agencies had predicted between 93 and 111 seats. When votes were counted, the LDF bagged 99 seats. In 2016, too, the exit polls and the results went in tandem when the LDF bagged power with 91 seats.
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